Trajectories of socio-ecological systems: Does social capital matter? A case study in the tropical Andes

Between natural and social systems there are two-way interactions, which determine the path of change in the Socio-Ecological System. For example, the type of land use decisions that society makes could lead to the deterioration of the biophysical system and its ecological functioning, causing effects on social well-being. Conceptual and simulation models of socio-ecological systems allow an understanding of such interactions and the development of trajectories. In this manuscript we explore the link between three lines of research that overlap but have been studied separately (i) Governance, (ii) Socio-ecological systems, and (iii) social capital. This paper analyzes the dynamics of social capital and its influence on governance and Land Use and Land Cover Changes in a basin of the Colombian Andes. To this end, we develop a Systems Dynamics model (SD). This research contributes to the (i) understanding of how the institutions, their policies, the actors, and the interactions generated between them in a territory influence the management of natural resources, which is indispensable to supporting the decision-making process; and (ii) operationalization of the social capital elements on the SES model through an integrated analysis with consideration of feedback mechanisms between natural and social system. With this model, a scenario evaluation is developed to analyze the effect of different approaches of the social capital organization on land cover in the basin case study.