{"title":"学习预测实验中的初始锚和有限信息","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jebo.2024.06.038","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In this paper, I introduce two novel treatments into learning-to-forecast experiments: an initial anchor and a limited information treatment. The initial anchor pins down the subjects’ initial expectations and makes cross-session results more comparable. In the limited information treatment, subjects can only observe the most recent market outcome. Surprisingly, price dynamics do not differ between full and limited information sessions. This suggests that when making decisions, subjects disregard most information and rely primarily on a few recent observations. Furthermore, regardless of the market’s feedback system, positive or negative, subjects predominantly use a single heuristic to form expectations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48409,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Initial anchors and limited information in learning-to-forecast experiments\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jebo.2024.06.038\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>In this paper, I introduce two novel treatments into learning-to-forecast experiments: an initial anchor and a limited information treatment. The initial anchor pins down the subjects’ initial expectations and makes cross-session results more comparable. In the limited information treatment, subjects can only observe the most recent market outcome. Surprisingly, price dynamics do not differ between full and limited information sessions. This suggests that when making decisions, subjects disregard most information and rely primarily on a few recent observations. Furthermore, regardless of the market’s feedback system, positive or negative, subjects predominantly use a single heuristic to form expectations.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48409,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-24\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268124002567\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268124002567","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Initial anchors and limited information in learning-to-forecast experiments
In this paper, I introduce two novel treatments into learning-to-forecast experiments: an initial anchor and a limited information treatment. The initial anchor pins down the subjects’ initial expectations and makes cross-session results more comparable. In the limited information treatment, subjects can only observe the most recent market outcome. Surprisingly, price dynamics do not differ between full and limited information sessions. This suggests that when making decisions, subjects disregard most information and rely primarily on a few recent observations. Furthermore, regardless of the market’s feedback system, positive or negative, subjects predominantly use a single heuristic to form expectations.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization is devoted to theoretical and empirical research concerning economic decision, organization and behavior and to economic change in all its aspects. Its specific purposes are to foster an improved understanding of how human cognitive, computational and informational characteristics influence the working of economic organizations and market economies and how an economy structural features lead to various types of micro and macro behavior, to changing patterns of development and to institutional evolution. Research with these purposes that explore the interrelations of economics with other disciplines such as biology, psychology, law, anthropology, sociology and mathematics is particularly welcome.