Perceptual saturation in deterrence: Examining the nonlinear relationships between arrest rate signal and perceptions of risk and reward

Purpose

Examining the functional form of the relationships between arrest rate signal and perceptions of risk and reward among active young offenders previously adjudicated of a serious offense.

Methods

Generalized additive mixed models were used to analyze data from 745 individuals in the Pathways to Desistance study.

Results

Increasing arrest rate had a positive but diminishing nonlinear effect on risk and a negative but approximately linear effect on rewards. A saturation point was observed in the influence of arrest rate on perceptions of risk, where further increases in arrest rate did not correspond to appreciable changes in perceptions of risk.

Conclusions

The findings suggest a potential upper limit to the effectiveness of increased arrest rate in deterring crime through increasing risk perceptions and underscore the need for policy strategies beyond increasing experienced punishment certainty. However, the findings also highlight potential methodological concerns of using arrest rate as a predictor of perceptions, especially among a sample with large variation in offending frequencies. Research should account for the nonlinearity between punishment and perceived risk and reward, especially in samples with heterogeneous offending experience.