坎帕拉陆路客运规划:从自下而上的视角审视消费者行为

IF 2.4 Q3 TRANSPORTATION Case Studies on Transport Policy Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI:10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101264
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了响应可持续发展目标 7、11 和 13 以及《巴黎协定》中提出的要求,人们越来越重视通过交通来减缓气候变化。乌干达首都坎帕拉缺乏经批准的陆路客运计划。本研究采用 KLAP-TIMES 模型(一种自下而上的工程框架),通过三种方案对坎帕拉通勤者的行为进行研究。利用 TIMES-VEDA 模型,该研究探讨了没有时间旅行财务(TTF)限制或独特旅行时间价值(VTT)水平的基线情景(BAU),但模型允许不同旅行模式、技术和燃料之间进行竞争、坎帕拉可达性和优先选择方案(KAPO)情景,在 TTF 限制下具有特定的 VTT 水平;以及坎帕拉可持续情景(KSS),到 2060 年,系统中的碳排放量将减少 50%,这取决于 VTT 和 TTF 在规划期内的持续性。本研究特意使用 VTT 来衡量基础设施投资对旅行时间的政策冲击。通过外生输入出行需求,该模型阐明了个体通勤者对各种出行方式的内生偏好,包括短途和长途旅行中的 Boda-boda、坎帕拉轿车和以电气化地铁为核心的大众快速交通(MRT)。研究结果揭示了消费者行为的重大转变,尤其是在坎帕拉可持续发展方案中,乘客在短途和长途旅行中都更青睐电气化的坎帕拉地铁,这表明与传统的坎帕拉轿车使用方式明显不同。研究表明,优先考虑旅行时间价值(VTT)和碳减排轨迹(KSS)是实现坎帕拉可持续交通的战略路线。这项研究为决策者提供了宝贵的见解,有助于他们制定和颁布有效支持坎帕拉可持续发展目标的交通政策。
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Kampala land passengers transportation planning: Examining consumer behavior through a bottom-up lens

In response to the imperatives outlined in SDGs 7, 11, and 13 and the Paris Agreement, folks increasingly focus on transportation to mitigate climate change. Uganda’s capital, Kampala, lacks ratified passenger land transportation plans. This study employs the KLAP-TIMES model, a bottom-up engineering framework, to examine Kampala commuters’ behaviors using three scenarios. Leveraging TIMES-VEDA, the study explores a baseline scenario (BAU) without time travel financial (TTF) limitations or distinctive Value of Travel Time (VTT) levels but with model permissions for competition among dissimilar trip modes, technologies, and fuels, a Kampala Accessibility and Priority Options (KAPO) Scenario with specific VTT levels under TTF limitations, and the Kampala Sustainable scenario (KSS), with a 50% carbon emissions bargain in the system by 2060, contingent upon the persistence of VTT and TTF over the planning horizon. The study utilizes the VTT purposively to measure infrastructure investments as a policy shock on travel time. By exogenously inputting travel demand, the model elucidates the endogenous preferences of individual commuters among various trip modes, including Boda-boda, Kampala sedans, and mass rapid transit (MRT) with an electrified Metro at its core, for both short—and long-distance journeys. The findings reveal significant shifts in consumer behavior, particularly in the Kampala Sustainable scenario, where commuters prefer the electrified Kampala Metro for both short—and long-distance travel, signaling a notable departure from traditional Kampala sedan usage. The study suggests prioritizing the value of travel time (VTT) alongside a carbon reduction trajectory (KSS) is a strategic route for sustainable mobility in Kampala. The study provides valuable insight to policymakers, aiding them in formulating and enacting transportation policies that effectively support Kampala’s sustainability objectives.

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CiteScore
5.00
自引率
12.00%
发文量
222
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