增长波动与贸易：市场多样化与生产专业化

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI:10.1016/j.jebo.2024.07.001

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们利用多国家、多行业和多目的地框架分析了贸易如何影响总波动性。我们将总产出增长风险分解为目的地风险、原产地风险和特异性风险（及其协方差）。然后，我们利用这一框架来进行反事实分析，改变目的地市场多样化（包括原产地）和产业专业化的程度。利用 1980-2011 年期间 19 个工业部门、34 个国家和 84 个目的地市场的数据，我们发现目的地风险占主导地位，其次是特异性风险。通过反事实分析，我们发现，对于高波动率国家而言，提高目的地市场的多样化程度对于降低总波动率具有重要的量化作用。另一方面，减少专业化会增加波动性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Growth volatility and trade: Market diversification vs. production specialization

We analyze how trade affects aggregate volatility using a multi-country, multi-industry, and multi-destination framework. We decompose aggregate output growth risk into destination risk, origin risk, and idiosyncratic risk (and their covariances). We then use this framework to run counterfactuals changing the degree of destination-market diversification (including home) and industry specialization. Using data on 19 industrial sectors, 34 countries, and 84 destination markets for the 1980–2011 period, we find that destination risk dominates, followed by idiosyncratic risk. From the counterfactuals, we find that the effect of increased destination-market diversification is quantitatively important in reducing aggregate volatility for high volatility countries. On the other hand, reducing specialization increases volatility.

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来源期刊

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

9.10%

发文量

392

期刊介绍： The Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization is devoted to theoretical and empirical research concerning economic decision, organization and behavior and to economic change in all its aspects. Its specific purposes are to foster an improved understanding of how human cognitive, computational and informational characteristics influence the working of economic organizations and market economies and how an economy structural features lead to various types of micro and macro behavior, to changing patterns of development and to institutional evolution. Research with these purposes that explore the interrelations of economics with other disciplines such as biology, psychology, law, anthropology, sociology and mathematics is particularly welcome.