Impacts of projected future changes in precipitation on wastewater treatment plant influent volumes connected by combined sewer collection systems

Climate change induced precipitation changes can impact wastewater influent volumes and, in turn, the design and operation of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). As influent volumes approach or exceeds the design capacity of the WWTP, the likelihood of poor treatment or untreated discharges that result in environmental damage, increases. To date, there has been a lack of research analysing the impact changes in precipitation may have on influent volumes of WWTPs with combined sewerage systems. This study leverages data driven models of observed precipitation and influent volumes for 14 Irish WWTPs with combined sewerage systems, to project monthly wastewater influent volumes in 2041 – 2060 using Ireland’s most up-to-date high resolution multi-model RCM projections under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. With changing monthly average daily precipitation, influent volumes for all the WWTPs demonstrated maximum decreases during summer months for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Winter months showed increasing trends in influent volumes, particularly under RCP 8.5. The results indicate that with projected increase in high and very high precipitation days in Ireland (under CMIP5), the return periods for influent volumes that exceed the hydraulic capacity of 5 of the WWTPs will reduce. This work also presents a framework by which newer high-resolution downscaled climate models can be used to developed updated impact analysis of changing rainfall patterns on wastewater. It likely that wastewater treatment infrastructure will need to adapt to more intense precipitation to minimise the occurrence of combined sewer overflows.