Pub Date : 2025-02-17DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100551
Huiyun Ma , Changjuan Chen , Zhicong Yi , Huihui Feng , Xiaojing Wu
This study explores the construction of a subtropical morning terrain fog detection algorithm for Himawari-8 data. Specifically, the clear sky surface suppression index is constructed to preliminarily remove the clear sky surface by combining Farneback optical flow method. The residual clear sky surface is further removed based on time series brightness temperature difference (BTD) between mid-infrared and thermal infrared. After that, the low-cloud elimination indicator is proposed to remove low clouds and mid-high clouds by coupling the brightness temperatures (BTs) at 10.4 μm with 12.3 μm, 13.3 μm and 8.6 μm with 9.6 μm. Finally, the fast-moving low clouds and residual mid-high clouds are removed by using the ratio of adjacent images at the 9.6 μm BT and the BT at 11.2 μm. The algorithm validation results show that the probability of detection, the false alarm rate and the critical success index are 0.801, 0.099 and 0.747, which show the acceptable performance. Meanwhile, the algorithm effectively avoids the influence of solar zenith angle. The research is capable of attaining near-real-time fog detection and offers pivotal technical support across diverse domains, including transportation planning, environmental management, human health, and agricultural production.
{"title":"Himawari-8 satellite detection of morning terrain fog in a subtropical region","authors":"Huiyun Ma , Changjuan Chen , Zhicong Yi , Huihui Feng , Xiaojing Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100551","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100551","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the construction of a subtropical morning terrain fog detection algorithm for Himawari-8 data. Specifically, the clear sky surface suppression index is constructed to preliminarily remove the clear sky surface by combining Farneback optical flow method. The residual clear sky surface is further removed based on time series brightness temperature difference (BTD) between mid-infrared and thermal infrared. After that, the low-cloud elimination indicator is proposed to remove low clouds and mid-high clouds by coupling the brightness temperatures (BTs) at 10.4 μm with 12.3 μm, 13.3 μm and 8.6 μm with 9.6 μm. Finally, the fast-moving low clouds and residual mid-high clouds are removed by using the ratio of adjacent images at the 9.6 μm BT and the BT at 11.2 μm. The algorithm validation results show that the probability of detection, the false alarm rate and the critical success index are 0.801, 0.099 and 0.747, which show the acceptable performance. Meanwhile, the algorithm effectively avoids the influence of solar zenith angle. The research is capable of attaining near-real-time fog detection and offers pivotal technical support across diverse domains, including transportation planning, environmental management, human health, and agricultural production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100551"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143422250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-13DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100550
Iftikhar Ali , Ashfaq Ahmad Shah , Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Chong Xu , Amjad Ali , Yousuf Ali
Small landholders in Pakistan’s high mountainous regions face significant challenges in adapting to the impacts of climate change. This study investigates the adaptation strategies employed by smallholder farmers to address these challenges and identifies the household-level factors influencing these strategies in Nagar Valley. Using a quantitative approach, data were collected through a structured survey involving 430 households. Data are analyzed using bivariate and probit regression models. The study reveals that smallholder farmers adopt various strategies to cope with climate change, including using chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and insecticides, practicing crop rotation, and transitioning to horticulture. The findings of the multivariate probit model demonstrate a significant association between age, gender, education, and the likelihood of adopting adaptation strategies. The study advocates for developing context-specific climate adaptation strategies tailored to these regions’ unique agroecological zones to enhance small landholders’ resilience against climate change impacts. It also emphasizes the need to raise awareness among smallholders about modern, climate-smart agricultural practices and adaptive strategies.
{"title":"Unveiling the determinants of climate change adaptation among small Landholders: Insights from a Mountainous Region in Pakistan","authors":"Iftikhar Ali , Ashfaq Ahmad Shah , Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Chong Xu , Amjad Ali , Yousuf Ali","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100550","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100550","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Small landholders in Pakistan’s high mountainous regions face significant challenges in adapting to the impacts of climate change. This study investigates the adaptation strategies employed by smallholder farmers to address these challenges and identifies the household-level factors influencing these strategies in Nagar Valley. Using a quantitative approach, data were collected through a structured survey involving 430 households. Data are analyzed using bivariate and probit regression models. The study reveals that smallholder farmers adopt various strategies to cope with climate change, including using chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and insecticides, practicing crop rotation, and transitioning to horticulture. The findings of the multivariate probit model demonstrate a significant association between age, gender, education, and the likelihood of adopting adaptation strategies. The study advocates for developing context-specific climate adaptation strategies tailored to these regions’ unique agroecological zones to enhance small landholders’ resilience against climate change impacts. It also emphasizes the need to raise awareness among smallholders about modern, climate-smart agricultural practices and adaptive strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100550"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143394610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100549
Eva Boon , Nellie Sofie Body , Robbert Biesbroek
<div><div>Climate services are increasingly developed and used to plan for climate change adaptation, but their success is poorly evaluated. A main reason is that an operational framework to support climate service researchers and practitioners pursuing evaluation is lacking. This study addresses this gap by developing and testing a robust and systematic evaluation framework in three steps. First, we designed a framework by operationalising agreed upon criteria for assessing climate service success. Second, the framework was tested in two climate service cases. Third, the usability, credibility, and transparency of the framework was assessed by climate service researchers and practitioners, including those engaged in the cases.</div><div>Our findings show that developed framework offers a standardized approach to evaluation, providing indicators, metrics, and guidance that enable the evaluator to provide a quantitative rating for each criterion. However, the robustness of ratings in the two cases was compromised due to limited interaction with targeted users during the development process and lack a of clear goals set from the beginning. This hampered incorporating the perception of a representative group of users and measuring impacts. Overall, the framework was considered usable by researchers and practitioners for various applications, including using it as design criteria, to facilitate learning, to guide development, and to support monitoring and evaluation. While generally perceived as credible and transparent, the framework would benefit from further testing and elaboration into practical materials. The study highlights that evaluation is done best when evaluation criteria are considered early in the development of the climate service.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>Climate services are seen as important means to support and accelerate adaptation action. While investments in climate service development and use are increasing, their evaluation typically falls short. One reason for this is the lack of a sound evaluation framework. This study aimed to develop a robust and systematic evaluation framework that can be used in both science and practice settings. The framework was tested in two implemented climate service cases, and evaluated by climate service users, practitioners, and researchers, as well as by the evaluators themselves. <span><span>Supplementary file 2</span></span> provides the framework, and an accompanying protocol describing important process steps to apply it. It also offers guidance on how to consider the success criteria during the development stages of a climate service, through guiding questions and a checklist. Here we present the practical implications of this study by (1) outlining the basic principles of the framework, summarizing the results of (2) testing and (3) evaluating the framework that have most practical relevance, and (4) highlighting suggestions for improving evaluation practice.</d
{"title":"Developing and testing an evaluation framework for climate services for adaptation","authors":"Eva Boon , Nellie Sofie Body , Robbert Biesbroek","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100549","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100549","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate services are increasingly developed and used to plan for climate change adaptation, but their success is poorly evaluated. A main reason is that an operational framework to support climate service researchers and practitioners pursuing evaluation is lacking. This study addresses this gap by developing and testing a robust and systematic evaluation framework in three steps. First, we designed a framework by operationalising agreed upon criteria for assessing climate service success. Second, the framework was tested in two climate service cases. Third, the usability, credibility, and transparency of the framework was assessed by climate service researchers and practitioners, including those engaged in the cases.</div><div>Our findings show that developed framework offers a standardized approach to evaluation, providing indicators, metrics, and guidance that enable the evaluator to provide a quantitative rating for each criterion. However, the robustness of ratings in the two cases was compromised due to limited interaction with targeted users during the development process and lack a of clear goals set from the beginning. This hampered incorporating the perception of a representative group of users and measuring impacts. Overall, the framework was considered usable by researchers and practitioners for various applications, including using it as design criteria, to facilitate learning, to guide development, and to support monitoring and evaluation. While generally perceived as credible and transparent, the framework would benefit from further testing and elaboration into practical materials. The study highlights that evaluation is done best when evaluation criteria are considered early in the development of the climate service.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>Climate services are seen as important means to support and accelerate adaptation action. While investments in climate service development and use are increasing, their evaluation typically falls short. One reason for this is the lack of a sound evaluation framework. This study aimed to develop a robust and systematic evaluation framework that can be used in both science and practice settings. The framework was tested in two implemented climate service cases, and evaluated by climate service users, practitioners, and researchers, as well as by the evaluators themselves. <span><span>Supplementary file 2</span></span> provides the framework, and an accompanying protocol describing important process steps to apply it. It also offers guidance on how to consider the success criteria during the development stages of a climate service, through guiding questions and a checklist. Here we present the practical implications of this study by (1) outlining the basic principles of the framework, summarizing the results of (2) testing and (3) evaluating the framework that have most practical relevance, and (4) highlighting suggestions for improving evaluation practice.</d","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100549"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143394609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change has adversely affected the livelihoods of people in developing countries where a large proportion of the population is heavily dependent on agriculture. Indigenous people need to perceive that the climate is changing or likely could change, and they need to pay sufficient attention to this perception to take action. Understanding farmers’ perceptions about climate change and adaptation strategies can help support their efforts and develop interventions more suited to the local context. Hence, this study aimed to elucidate how farmers perceive climate change in their locality and how they adapt to observed changes in the Dendi district, West Shewa Zone, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to gather information on farmers’ perceptions of climate change, observed threats, and adaptation practices to observed changes from 144 sample farmers. Key informant interviews and focus group discussions were also conducted to gather more insights into trends in climate change, threats, and adaptation practices in the area. Additionally, climate data of the district from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed to assess trends in temperature and rainfall in the study area. The findings of the study revealed an increasing trend in maximum temperatures in the study area, while the mean minimum temperatures slightly decreased. Rainfall trends have significantly decreased over the past three decades, with seasonal rainfall also declining. The majority of the respondents replied that they perceived an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall. Specifically, 79.2% of the respondents perceived rising temperatures, while 16.7% perceived a decrease in temperature. Additionally, 77.1% of respondents replied that there was a decrease in both the amount and distribution of rainfall. The socio-economic analysis reveals that weather events in the study area vary in frequency across agroecologies. The major events identified include prolonged droughts with late-onset or early offset of rains (84.5%), floods/excessive moisture (71.6%), crop disease (70.8%), and erosion (56.9%). As rain-fed crop production relies on the timely and normal distribution of rainfall, these events significantly disrupt agricultural operations, particularly in mid-altitude and lowland areas. The impacts, sometimes, include total crop loss, reduced yields, smaller seeding areas, delayed planting and maturity, and increased crop pests. Respondents reported various climate change adaptation practices, including adjusting cropping calendars, changing crop types, diversifying livelihoods, and adopting improved crop varieties and irrigation. However, the effectiveness of these practices was limited by resource and skill constraints. To enhance resilience, it is crucial to provide reliable climate information, offer training on climate-smart agriculture, ensure access to updated climate data, and promote improved irrigation methods.
{"title":"Observed climate trends and farmers’ adaptation strategies in Dendi District, West Shewa Zone, Ethiopia","authors":"Busha Getachew , Gonfa Kewessa , Worku Hailu , Gezahegn Girma","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has adversely affected the livelihoods of people in developing countries where a large proportion of the population is heavily dependent on agriculture. Indigenous people need to perceive that the climate is changing or likely could change, and they need to pay sufficient attention to this perception to take action. Understanding farmers’ perceptions about climate change and adaptation strategies can help support their efforts and develop interventions more suited to the local context. Hence, this study aimed to elucidate how farmers perceive climate change in their locality and how they adapt to observed changes in the Dendi district, West Shewa Zone, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to gather information on farmers’ perceptions of climate change, observed threats, and adaptation practices to observed changes from 144 sample farmers. Key informant interviews and focus group discussions were also conducted to gather more insights into trends in climate change, threats, and adaptation practices in the area. Additionally, climate data of the district from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed to assess trends in temperature and rainfall in the study area. The findings of the study revealed an increasing trend in maximum temperatures in the study area, while the mean minimum temperatures slightly decreased. Rainfall trends have significantly decreased over the past three decades, with seasonal rainfall also declining. The majority of the respondents replied that they perceived an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall. Specifically, 79.2% of the respondents perceived rising temperatures, while 16.7% perceived a decrease in temperature. Additionally, 77.1% of respondents replied that there was a decrease in both the amount and distribution of rainfall. The socio-economic analysis reveals that weather events in the study area vary in frequency across agroecologies. The major events identified include prolonged droughts with late-onset or early offset of rains (84.5%), floods/excessive moisture (71.6%), crop disease (70.8%), and erosion (56.9%). As rain-fed crop production relies on the timely and normal distribution of rainfall, these events significantly disrupt agricultural operations, particularly in mid-altitude and lowland areas. The impacts, sometimes, include total crop loss, reduced yields, smaller seeding areas, delayed planting and maturity, and increased crop pests. Respondents reported various climate change adaptation practices, including adjusting cropping calendars, changing crop types, diversifying livelihoods, and adopting improved crop varieties and irrigation. However, the effectiveness of these practices was limited by resource and skill constraints. To enhance resilience, it is crucial to provide reliable climate information, offer training on climate-smart agriculture, ensure access to updated climate data, and promote improved irrigation methods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100548"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143349925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Adapting smallholder rainfed farming systems to climate change requires adoption of technologies that build resilience to climate shocks. One such technology is conservation agriculture, yet its adoption by smallholders in Southern Africa is not widespread. We use incentivized economic field experiments in Zambia to test, ex-ante, whether providing rainfall forecasts and a time-bound learning subsidy can help increase the adoption of conservation agriculture. We found that providing rainfall forecasts predicting low rainfall significantly increased the probability of adopting conservation agriculture by 8 percentage points, while offering a subsidy increased the chances of adoption by 11 percentage points. Bundling rainfall forecasts and subsidies did not significantly influence adoption, perhaps because these were not complementary. Having experienced normal rainfall in the previous experiment round (cropping season) was associated with 6 percentage points higher odds of adopting conservation agriculture, while past exposure to low rainfall significantly reduced the probability of adoption by 6 percentage points. These results suggest that farmers do not expect two subsequent seasons to be the same given the increase in rainfall variability in the region. Other important drivers of adoption are hosting demonstration plots and education level of the participant. These findings provide evidence that providing rainfall forecasts and time-bound learning subsidies may be effective ways to enhance the adoption of conservation agriculture in Zambia and imply a need to reframe conservation agriculture as means to address low and erratic rainfall. Future research can evaluate the persistence of such effects using randomized controlled trials.
{"title":"Rainfall forecasts, learning subsidies and conservation agriculture adoption: Experimental evidence from Zambia","authors":"Hambulo Ngoma , Esau Simutowe , João Vasco Silva , Isaiah Nyagumbo , Kelvin Kalala , Mukwemba Habeenzu , Christian Thierfelder","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100547","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100547","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Adapting smallholder rainfed farming systems to climate change requires adoption of technologies that build resilience to climate shocks. One such technology is conservation agriculture, yet its adoption by smallholders in Southern Africa is not widespread. We use incentivized economic field experiments in Zambia to test, ex-ante, whether providing rainfall forecasts and a time-bound learning subsidy can help increase the adoption of conservation agriculture. We found that providing rainfall forecasts predicting low rainfall significantly increased the probability of adopting conservation agriculture by 8 percentage points, while offering a subsidy increased the chances of adoption by 11 percentage points. Bundling rainfall forecasts and subsidies did not significantly influence adoption, perhaps because these were not complementary. Having experienced normal rainfall in the previous experiment round (cropping season) was associated with 6 percentage points higher odds of adopting conservation agriculture, while past exposure to low rainfall significantly reduced the probability of adoption by 6 percentage points. These results suggest that farmers do not expect two subsequent seasons to be the same given the increase in rainfall variability in the region. Other important drivers of adoption are hosting demonstration plots and education level of the participant. These findings provide evidence that providing rainfall forecasts and time-bound learning subsidies may be effective ways to enhance the adoption of conservation agriculture in Zambia and imply a need to reframe conservation agriculture as means to address low and erratic rainfall. Future research can evaluate the persistence of such effects using randomized controlled trials.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100547"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143232689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
<div><div>This study seeks to explore the farmers’ climate change perceptions, impacts, and underlying factors that influenced the choice of adaptation strategies in the drought-prone northwest region of Bangladesh. Primary data was collected from 375 sample households from four drought-prone districts (i.e., Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj, Naogaon, and Dinajpur). The factors influencing the farmers’ adaptation practices were determined using a multinomial logistic model (MNL). During survey, farmers’ perceptions about climate change were identical to the meteorological trends of the last 60 years (1960–2022) except for Dinajpur station. In the study period drought were mainly affects increased cost of production, declining ground water levels, crop failures and scarcity of soil water, lower income, food scarcity etc. The MNL results showed that age, education,<!--> <!-->income, family size, farming experience, access to climate, farmer-to-farmer extension, social mobility, and loan subsidies directly influenced adaptation decisions. The most significant adaptation strategies adopted by the farmers were irrigation facilities, agronomic management, drought-tolerant rice varieties, adopting new technologies, and alternative enterprises of land use change. To protect farmers from natural disasters, especially drought, sustainable water management plan, credit support from government, less water consuming crops, new crop varieties and re-excavation of traditional ponds must be implemented in the study area.</div></div><div><h3>Practical Implications</h3><div>The goal of this research is to provide a comprehensive analysis of adaptation to climate change, especially drought, and its implications in the Northwest region of Bangladesh. The country experiences various types of natural disasters, which means that the government and citizens have a long history of developing a significant track record of preparedness, adaptation, and recovery in response to such occurrences. It is well known that the prospect and occurrence of such catastrophes is a significant impediment to progress and the improvement of human welfare.</div><div>The frequency and the severity of extreme weather events due to climate change in South East Asia including Bangladesh is anticipated to intensify in the forthcoming years. In recent years, decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature have serious impact on agricultural sector specially the northwest area of Bangladesh, with rural farmers heavily affected since they depend largely on rainfall for their livelihood. According to national adaptation plan of Bangladesh (NAP), the whole area of the country is susceptible to the detrimental effects of climate change. However, the northwest region is particularly vulnerable to drought because of geoclimatic and man-made factors. Drought in this area are not only experienced through high rainfall variability accompanied with high temperature, but also shortage of groundwater, lack of canal
{"title":"Farmers’ climate change perception, impacts and adaptation strategies in response to drought in the Northwest area of Bangladesh","authors":"J.M. Adeeb Salman Chowdhury , Md. Abdul Khalek , Md. Kamruzzaman","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100540","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100540","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study seeks to explore the farmers’ climate change perceptions, impacts, and underlying factors that influenced the choice of adaptation strategies in the drought-prone northwest region of Bangladesh. Primary data was collected from 375 sample households from four drought-prone districts (i.e., Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj, Naogaon, and Dinajpur). The factors influencing the farmers’ adaptation practices were determined using a multinomial logistic model (MNL). During survey, farmers’ perceptions about climate change were identical to the meteorological trends of the last 60 years (1960–2022) except for Dinajpur station. In the study period drought were mainly affects increased cost of production, declining ground water levels, crop failures and scarcity of soil water, lower income, food scarcity etc. The MNL results showed that age, education,<!--> <!-->income, family size, farming experience, access to climate, farmer-to-farmer extension, social mobility, and loan subsidies directly influenced adaptation decisions. The most significant adaptation strategies adopted by the farmers were irrigation facilities, agronomic management, drought-tolerant rice varieties, adopting new technologies, and alternative enterprises of land use change. To protect farmers from natural disasters, especially drought, sustainable water management plan, credit support from government, less water consuming crops, new crop varieties and re-excavation of traditional ponds must be implemented in the study area.</div></div><div><h3>Practical Implications</h3><div>The goal of this research is to provide a comprehensive analysis of adaptation to climate change, especially drought, and its implications in the Northwest region of Bangladesh. The country experiences various types of natural disasters, which means that the government and citizens have a long history of developing a significant track record of preparedness, adaptation, and recovery in response to such occurrences. It is well known that the prospect and occurrence of such catastrophes is a significant impediment to progress and the improvement of human welfare.</div><div>The frequency and the severity of extreme weather events due to climate change in South East Asia including Bangladesh is anticipated to intensify in the forthcoming years. In recent years, decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature have serious impact on agricultural sector specially the northwest area of Bangladesh, with rural farmers heavily affected since they depend largely on rainfall for their livelihood. According to national adaptation plan of Bangladesh (NAP), the whole area of the country is susceptible to the detrimental effects of climate change. However, the northwest region is particularly vulnerable to drought because of geoclimatic and man-made factors. Drought in this area are not only experienced through high rainfall variability accompanied with high temperature, but also shortage of groundwater, lack of canal ","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100540"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143180546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-02DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100545
Julie André , Benjamin Le Roy , Aude Lemonsu , Morgane Colombert , Valéry Masson
The construction of efficient climate services relies on the interaction between decision-makers and scientists. Urban heat island is an issue that already preoccupies public authorities and is likely to be exacerbated by climate change, making assessment of its evolution crucial for effective urban policymaking and to size adaptation measures. This study analyzed interviews with 13 public stakeholders in the Paris area (France), highlighting their diverse needs for urban climate data. Their feedback on the high-resolution climate projections for the Paris region was assessed to provide recommendations to researchers for the effective dissemination of urban climate data. Public stakeholders in the Paris area need urban climate data for various purposes (awareness, diagnosis, decision support, and evaluation) and thus seek diverse types and formats of information. High-resolution climate projections may meet parts of these needs, but two key points require attention: (i) climate models appear to be difficult to apprehend by public stakeholders, thus an effort of pedagogy is necessary, (ii) climate projections often extend to 2100, but stakeholders primarily need short- to medium-term forecasts that align with public policy timelines. Indicators on extreme impacts and risks are a strong demand of public actors, especially in the health and energy sectors. Additionally, since recent urban climate resources remain largely unseen by public actors, we recommend enhancing its dissemination through local institutes recognized by policymakers, such as urban planning agencies. In summary, this case study provided valuable insights into the key mechanisms required for effectively disseminating climate research to promote climate change adaptation.
{"title":"How to disseminate the research results on climate change impacts in cities to guide adaptation public policies ? Application to the Paris region (France)","authors":"Julie André , Benjamin Le Roy , Aude Lemonsu , Morgane Colombert , Valéry Masson","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100545","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100545","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The construction of efficient climate services relies on the interaction between decision-makers and scientists. Urban heat island is an issue that already preoccupies public authorities and is likely to be exacerbated by climate change, making assessment of its evolution crucial for effective urban policymaking and to size adaptation measures. This study analyzed interviews with 13 public stakeholders in the Paris area (France), highlighting their diverse needs for urban climate data. Their feedback on the high-resolution climate projections for the Paris region was assessed to provide recommendations to researchers for the effective dissemination of urban climate data. Public stakeholders in the Paris area need urban climate data for various purposes (awareness, diagnosis, decision support, and evaluation) and thus seek diverse types and formats of information. High-resolution climate projections may meet parts of these needs, but two key points require attention: (i) climate models appear to be difficult to apprehend by public stakeholders, thus an effort of pedagogy is necessary, (ii) climate projections often extend to 2100, but stakeholders primarily need short- to medium-term forecasts that align with public policy timelines. Indicators on extreme impacts and risks are a strong demand of public actors, especially in the health and energy sectors. Additionally, since recent urban climate resources remain largely unseen by public actors, we recommend enhancing its dissemination through local institutes recognized by policymakers, such as urban planning agencies. In summary, this case study provided valuable insights into the key mechanisms required for effectively disseminating climate research to promote climate change adaptation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100545"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143180854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100542
David Lefutso , Abiodun A. Ogundeji , Gideon Danso-Abbeam , Yong S. Nyam
South Africa is repeatedly hit by flooding, and it is getting worse with climate change and urbanisation. Applying Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices (KAP) theory and Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), this study explores low-income households’ perceptions and practices regarding flood risk insurance coverage in East London and Mdantsane-Chalumna. The study involved a data collected from 448 low-income households and applied the Partial Least Square Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) to understand the complex relationships between the variables under study. The results show positive attitude toward insurance. However, the knowledge base is critically short. The KAP dimensions are determined by socio-economic factors, for example, education, financial capacity and availability of relevant information; reliance on social grants reduces the perception of relevance of insurance. The adoption is impeded by structural barriers such as low financial literacy, distrust in insurers and administrative complexity. However, there are possibilities to boost financial literacy by means of well-aimed educational campaigns in addition to digital platforms. Subsidised policies and micro-insurance are essential affordable insurance solutions. Equally important is building institutional trust via transparent public–private collaborations and consumer protection mechanisms. Increased adoption will come from simplified mobile platforms and communication strategies that highlight the benefits of insurance and risks of inaction. The findings of this research offer tangible advice for solving both behavioural and structural barriers to the prevention and mitigation of flood risk in South Africa, advancing the debate on flood risk management in the country.
{"title":"Assessment of knowledge, attitudes, and perceptions toward flood risk insurance amongst low-income households in South Africa","authors":"David Lefutso , Abiodun A. Ogundeji , Gideon Danso-Abbeam , Yong S. Nyam","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100542","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100542","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>South Africa is repeatedly hit by flooding, and it is getting worse with climate change and urbanisation. Applying Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices (KAP) theory and Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), this study explores low-income households’ perceptions and practices regarding flood risk insurance coverage in East London and Mdantsane-Chalumna. The study involved a data collected from 448 low-income households and applied the Partial Least Square Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) to understand the complex relationships between the variables under study. The results show positive attitude toward insurance. However, the knowledge base is critically short. The KAP dimensions are determined by socio-economic factors, for example, education, financial capacity and availability of relevant information; reliance on social grants reduces the perception of relevance of insurance. The adoption is impeded by structural barriers such as low financial literacy, distrust in insurers and administrative complexity. However, there are possibilities to boost financial literacy by means of well-aimed educational campaigns in addition to digital platforms. Subsidised policies and micro-insurance are essential affordable insurance solutions. Equally important is building institutional trust via transparent public–private collaborations and consumer protection mechanisms. Increased adoption will come from simplified mobile platforms and communication strategies that highlight the benefits of insurance and risks of inaction. The findings of this research offer tangible advice for solving both behavioural and structural barriers to the prevention and mitigation of flood risk in South Africa, advancing the debate on flood risk management in the country.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100542"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143180855","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-30DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100544
Siqi Zhang, Huanping Wu, Mei Li, Bei Liu, Pengcheng Shao
In recent years, the climate change has been attributed more attention by numerous governments. In response, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has developed the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Analysis System (CIPAS). Currently, CIPAS Version 3 (CIPAS 3) incorporates data from global massive meteorological station, satellite, predication models, and reanalysis datasets. Designed with a “Cloud + Client” architecture, CIPAS 3 utilizes distributed, multi-layer cloud computing to integrate, manage, and share climate data. CIPAS 3 offers over 1,300 operational functions, nearly 1,800 products, and 213 climate algorithms. Additionally, it plays a critical role in global, regional, and provincial climate monitoring, prediction, real-time verification, decision-making, and public climate services. The design and implementation of this system are instrumental in supporting research and informing government actions in the field of climate change.
{"title":"The development and application of the cloud-based climate operational platform","authors":"Siqi Zhang, Huanping Wu, Mei Li, Bei Liu, Pengcheng Shao","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100544","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100544","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, the climate change has been attributed more attention by numerous governments. In response, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has developed the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Analysis System (CIPAS). Currently, CIPAS Version 3 (CIPAS 3) incorporates data from global massive meteorological station, satellite, predication models, and reanalysis datasets. Designed with a “Cloud + Client” architecture, CIPAS 3 utilizes distributed, multi-layer cloud computing to integrate, manage, and share climate data. CIPAS 3 offers over 1,300 operational functions, nearly 1,800 products, and 213 climate algorithms. Additionally, it plays a critical role in global, regional, and provincial climate monitoring, prediction, real-time verification, decision-making, and public climate services. The design and implementation of this system are instrumental in supporting research and informing government actions in the field of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100544"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143180853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-28DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100543
Max Mauerman , Henny Osbahr , Emily Black , Daniel Osgood , Grieve Chelwa , Bernadette Mushinge
Climate adaptation policies rely on accurate estimates of weather-related impacts on community-level food insecurity. These estimates must capture local livelihoods and their varying sensitivity to climate extremes. This paper develops a novel methodology to address this need through incorporating farmer knowledge into robust drought impact assessments.
Using a new dataset of 925 farmer focus groups in Zambia, we investigate whether farmers’ recollection can identify consequential drought events more consistently than crop yields, which are conventionally used for this purpose. Zambia, like many countries, has experienced structural changes in its crop production systems over the last 30 years. Staple crop yields are therefore a weak proxy for food insecurity without wider socio-economic and agricultural context. We posit that in settings like this, farmers’ knowledge can provide the missing context for what constitutes a meaningful climate shock.
We conduct a statistical analysis of the dominant patterns of variability in farmers’ recollected drought years as compared to satellite rainfall. We find that farmers’ recall identifies meteorologically consistent patterns in shocks, going back 40 years. In contrast, conventional methods of regressing weather on maize yields to measure shocks would result in estimates that are biased and overconfident. Our analysis demonstrates, for the first time at a national scale, that farmers’ knowledge of climate shocks is a uniquely reliable source of impact data.
{"title":"Farmers’ knowledge improves identification of drought impacts: A nationwide statistical analysis in Zambia","authors":"Max Mauerman , Henny Osbahr , Emily Black , Daniel Osgood , Grieve Chelwa , Bernadette Mushinge","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100543","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100543","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate adaptation policies rely on accurate estimates of weather-related impacts on community-level food insecurity. These estimates must capture local livelihoods and their varying sensitivity to climate extremes. This paper develops a novel methodology to address this need through incorporating farmer knowledge into robust drought impact assessments.</div><div>Using a new dataset of 925 farmer focus groups in Zambia, we investigate whether farmers’ recollection can identify consequential drought events more consistently than crop yields, which are conventionally used for this purpose. Zambia, like many countries, has experienced structural changes in its crop production systems over the last 30 years. Staple crop yields are therefore a weak proxy for food insecurity without wider socio-economic and agricultural context. We posit that in settings like this, farmers’ knowledge can provide the missing context for what constitutes a meaningful climate shock.</div><div>We conduct a statistical analysis of the dominant patterns of variability in farmers’ recollected drought years as compared to satellite rainfall. We find that farmers’ recall identifies meteorologically consistent patterns in shocks, going back 40 years. In contrast, conventional methods of regressing weather on maize yields to measure shocks would result in estimates that are biased and overconfident. Our analysis demonstrates, for the first time at a national scale, that farmers’ knowledge of climate shocks is a uniquely reliable source of impact data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100543"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143180889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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