Pub Date : 2025-03-15DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100556
Gaby S. Langendijk , Eva Boon , Hasse Goosen , Ad Jeuken , Saioa Zorita Castresana , Nieves Pena Cerezo , Jaroslav Mysiak , Leon Kapetas
Climate change adaptation efforts need to accelerate and scale-up to deal with increasing climate change impacts worldwide in order to safeguard the resilience of societies. Currently adaptation action is merely following a risk-based planning approach, going from identifying a climate related risk to directly finding solutions. This has resulted into largely fragmented, local, and incremental adaptation actions up to present. There is a need for transformational change, and combining adaptation with other policy objectives, to speed up action towards climate resilient development. However, this integration alone may not be sufficient to address the systemic transformation required to tackle the root causes of existing challenges and underlaying vulnerabilities. A broader perspective is needed to envision the “future we want” and defining key goals and actions to achieve these futures. We believe that such an ambition setting process is critical, and commonly missing in adaptation planning. With ambition setting we mean a policy process that entails developing visions coupled with identifying goals and actions that work towards these visions. Ambition setting builds upon understanding the desired transformations in the system and the root cause of present challenges, including risks and vulnerabilities. To put ambition setting into practice climate services and tools can be employed. We identify key criteria supporting the selection of such tools and provide four examples showcasing how the tools support ambition setting. A tradition of ambition setting should be fostered, as well as tools and services should be further developed in parallel to accelerate transformations towards climate resilient development.
{"title":"Ambition setting through climate services to drive climate resilient development","authors":"Gaby S. Langendijk , Eva Boon , Hasse Goosen , Ad Jeuken , Saioa Zorita Castresana , Nieves Pena Cerezo , Jaroslav Mysiak , Leon Kapetas","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100556","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100556","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change adaptation efforts need to accelerate and scale-up to deal with increasing climate change impacts worldwide in order to safeguard the resilience of societies. Currently adaptation action is merely following a risk-based planning approach, going from identifying a climate related risk to directly finding solutions. This has resulted into largely fragmented, local, and incremental adaptation actions up to present. There is a need for transformational change, and combining adaptation with other policy objectives, to speed up action towards climate resilient development. However, this integration alone may not be sufficient to address the systemic transformation required to tackle the root causes of existing challenges and underlaying vulnerabilities. A broader perspective is needed to envision the “future we want” and defining key goals and actions to achieve these futures. We believe that such an ambition setting process is critical, and commonly missing in adaptation planning. With ambition setting we mean a policy process that entails developing visions coupled with identifying goals and actions that work towards these visions. Ambition setting builds upon understanding the desired transformations in the system and the root cause of present challenges, including risks and vulnerabilities. To put ambition setting into practice climate services and tools can be employed. We identify key criteria supporting the selection of such tools and provide four examples showcasing how the tools support ambition setting. A tradition of ambition setting should be fostered, as well as tools and services should be further developed in parallel to accelerate transformations towards climate resilient development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100556"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143628518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
<div><div>To describe regional climate change, climate services typically rely on an ensemble of climate model simulations. The development and arrival of observational constraints at regional scales are questioning this approach, as some simulations may not align with warming trajectories estimated by these techniques. This study proposes a methodology for describing future regional changes that combines multiple sources of information: global and regional observational constraints applied to the CMIP6 ensemble, along with existing regional climate model simulations driven by CMIP5. This approach uses Regional Warming Levels (RWLs), mirroring the use of Global Warming Levels (GWLs) in the IPCC AR6. We apply it to mainland France, a region with discrepancies in warming projections between global models, regional models, and observational constraints. Results show that the standard GWL approach produces unrealistically low warming estimates due to overly low regional-to-global warming ratios in some models. Using RWLs allows separation of the annual mean warming estimation (based on observational constraints) from the detailed climate change characteristics (based on regional models). We explore ways to link RWLs and GWLs and assess associated uncertainties. This methodology has been selected to describe future climate change in mainland France, as part of the definition of a reference trajectory for adaptation set by the French government. It can be replicated in other regions and applied to existing or upcoming climate projections to express them in terms of regional warming levels at the national scale.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>The French government has recently chosen to adopt a reference trajectory for adaptation to climate change in France, known as the TRACC (Trajectoire de Réchauffement de référence pour l’Adaptation au Changement Climatique). This trajectory defines 3 levels to which the country needs to prepare for, corresponding to +1.5 °C global warming in 2030, +2 °C in 2050 and +3 °C in 2100 compared to 1850–1900. The aim is to establish a single framework for climate change impact studies including climate services, the definition and analysis of adaptation actions, standardizing practices nationwide and facilitating a coherent response to climate challenges. This article describes the methodological choices associated with this trajectory, based on a description of future changes at a fixed regional warming level (RWL) consistent with the chosen global trajectory. For mainland France, the 3 TRACC levels are expressed as an average warming over the country of 2 °C in 2030, 2.7 °C in 2050 and 4 °C in 2100 compared to 1850–1900. These are derived from observational constraints, combining models and observations. The subsequent description of local scale climate change is based on existing regional climate model simulations. The article finally provides a description of some of the changes associated with the
{"title":"Using regional warming levels to describe future climate change for services and adaptation: Application to the French reference trajectory for adaptation","authors":"Lola Corre , Aurélien Ribes , Sébastien Bernus , Agathe Drouin , Samuel Morin , Jean-Michel Soubeyroux","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100553","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To describe regional climate change, climate services typically rely on an ensemble of climate model simulations. The development and arrival of observational constraints at regional scales are questioning this approach, as some simulations may not align with warming trajectories estimated by these techniques. This study proposes a methodology for describing future regional changes that combines multiple sources of information: global and regional observational constraints applied to the CMIP6 ensemble, along with existing regional climate model simulations driven by CMIP5. This approach uses Regional Warming Levels (RWLs), mirroring the use of Global Warming Levels (GWLs) in the IPCC AR6. We apply it to mainland France, a region with discrepancies in warming projections between global models, regional models, and observational constraints. Results show that the standard GWL approach produces unrealistically low warming estimates due to overly low regional-to-global warming ratios in some models. Using RWLs allows separation of the annual mean warming estimation (based on observational constraints) from the detailed climate change characteristics (based on regional models). We explore ways to link RWLs and GWLs and assess associated uncertainties. This methodology has been selected to describe future climate change in mainland France, as part of the definition of a reference trajectory for adaptation set by the French government. It can be replicated in other regions and applied to existing or upcoming climate projections to express them in terms of regional warming levels at the national scale.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>The French government has recently chosen to adopt a reference trajectory for adaptation to climate change in France, known as the TRACC (Trajectoire de Réchauffement de référence pour l’Adaptation au Changement Climatique). This trajectory defines 3 levels to which the country needs to prepare for, corresponding to +1.5 °C global warming in 2030, +2 °C in 2050 and +3 °C in 2100 compared to 1850–1900. The aim is to establish a single framework for climate change impact studies including climate services, the definition and analysis of adaptation actions, standardizing practices nationwide and facilitating a coherent response to climate challenges. This article describes the methodological choices associated with this trajectory, based on a description of future changes at a fixed regional warming level (RWL) consistent with the chosen global trajectory. For mainland France, the 3 TRACC levels are expressed as an average warming over the country of 2 °C in 2030, 2.7 °C in 2050 and 4 °C in 2100 compared to 1850–1900. These are derived from observational constraints, combining models and observations. The subsequent description of local scale climate change is based on existing regional climate model simulations. The article finally provides a description of some of the changes associated with the","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100553"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143621302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The current work intends to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation and the Normalized Differentiate Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Loukkos watershed and provide scenarios for their recent and future evolution, therefore determining the degree of association. We conducted a study on the time series data of precipitation and NDVI from 1999 to 2019. The NDVI prediction is conducted using the CA-Markov model and the linear mixed-effects multi-level model (LME) with precipitation data from 2019 to 2040. The CA-Markov model was employed to predict the vegetation indices for 2029 and 2040 using 1999, 2009, and 2019 data. The model simulates future precipitation estimates for up to 2040 using different daily precipitation data series obtained from ten meteorological stations between 1999 and 2019. The accuracy of NDVI simulation is evaluated using kappa indices, specifically of 88%, of 86%, and of 83%, indicating that the consistency between the simulated NDVI map of 2019 and the actual one is nearly perfect, indicating statistical reliability of our model. The precipitation forecast for the Loukkos watershed predicts that average annual precipitation will decrease by 11.4% between 1999 and 2040. In contrast, based on 2019, there will be an increase in low vegetation areas and a decline in dense regions in the eastern and western parts of the basin in 2029 (−12.89%) and 2040 (−12.78%), respectively. The findings of this study suggest that by 2040, the Loukkos watershed will be exposed to future climate hazards, such as reduced precipitation and vegetation. The integration of geoinformation and prediction models is a great resource for optimizing environmental planning to prepare and potentially mitigate the harmful effects of climate change and its consequences for both humanity and the environment.
{"title":"Predicting precipitation and NDVI utilization of the multi-level linear mixed-effects model and the CA-markov simulation model","authors":"Fatima Belhaj , Hlila Rachid , Ouallali Abdessalam , Aqil Tariq , Belkendil Abdeldjalil , Beroho Mohamed , Hassan Alzahrani , Hajra Mustafa , Hesham Mohamed El-Askary","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100554","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100554","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The current work intends to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of precipitation and the Normalized Differentiate Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Loukkos watershed and provide scenarios for their recent and future evolution, therefore determining the degree of association. We conducted a study on the time series data of precipitation and NDVI from 1999 to 2019. The NDVI prediction is conducted using the CA-Markov model and the linear mixed-effects multi-level model (LME) with precipitation data from 2019 to 2040. The CA-Markov model was employed to predict the vegetation indices for 2029 and 2040 using 1999, 2009, and 2019 data. The model simulates future precipitation estimates for up to 2040 using different daily precipitation data series obtained from ten meteorological stations between 1999 and 2019. The accuracy of NDVI simulation is evaluated using kappa indices, specifically <span><math><msub><mi>K</mi><mrow><mi>location</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> of 88%, <span><math><msub><mi>K</mi><mrow><mi>n</mi><mn>0</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> of 86%, and <span><math><msub><mi>K</mi><mrow><mi>s</mi><mi>t</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>n</mi><mi>d</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>d</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> of 83%, indicating that the consistency between the simulated NDVI map of 2019 and the actual one is nearly perfect, indicating statistical reliability of our model. The precipitation forecast for the Loukkos watershed predicts that average annual precipitation will decrease by 11.4% between 1999 and 2040. In contrast, based on 2019, there will be an increase in low vegetation areas and a decline in dense regions in the eastern and western parts of the basin in 2029 (−12.89%) and 2040 (−12.78%), respectively. The findings of this study suggest that by 2040, the Loukkos watershed will be exposed to future climate hazards, such as reduced precipitation and vegetation. The integration of geoinformation and prediction models is a great resource for optimizing environmental planning to prepare and potentially mitigate the harmful effects of climate change and its consequences for both humanity and the environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100554"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-10DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100557
Iddisah Alhassan , Philip Antwi-Agyei , William Adzawla , Mihaela Sima
To execute effective climate initiatives at all social levels, it is critical to understand the perspectives of various climate-vulnerability groups’ utilization of climate information. However, limited empirical research has been conducted on the perspectives and adaptation methods of climate-vulnerable farmers in Ghana’s Northern Region. This study offered an understanding of the enabling factors that promote the utilization intensity of climate information among farmers from three climate-vulnerability groups. The study employs quantitative and qualitative methods and data collected through face-to-face interview questionnaires from 384 farmer households, five key informants and five focus group discussions among forty-two participants within 6 climatic vulnerable districts. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the types of information accessed and utilized and the enabling factors for its utilization. A double-hurdle regression model was employed to model climate-vulnerable districts’ probability utilization of climate information and intensity. The results show that television programs were the major source of climate information among most farmers in the highly climate-vulnerable groups, whereas it was radio among farmers in the moderately and less climate-vulnerable groups. The moderately climate-vulnerable groups not only have a low probability of utilizing climate information, but they will utilize less of it if they intend to do so, whereas highly climate-vulnerable districts have a lower probability of utilizing but will use more of it if they intend to. Access to climate information through extension services was low among all vulnerable groups. However, farmers who accessed extension services have a high probability of utilizing the information and utilize it more.
{"title":"Factors influencing the access and utilization of climate information by farmers from different climate vulnerable districts of Northern Region, Ghana","authors":"Iddisah Alhassan , Philip Antwi-Agyei , William Adzawla , Mihaela Sima","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100557","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100557","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To execute effective climate initiatives at all social levels, it is critical to understand the perspectives of various climate-vulnerability groups’ utilization of climate information. However, limited empirical research has been conducted on the perspectives and adaptation methods of climate-vulnerable<!--> <!-->farmers in Ghana’s Northern Region. This study offered an understanding of the enabling factors that promote the utilization intensity of climate information among farmers from three climate-vulnerability groups. The study employs quantitative and qualitative methods and data collected through face-to-face interview questionnaires from 384 farmer households, five key informants and five focus group discussions among forty-two participants within 6 climatic vulnerable districts. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the types of information accessed and utilized and the enabling factors for its utilization. A double-hurdle regression model was employed to model climate-vulnerable districts’ probability utilization of climate information and intensity. The results show that television programs were the major source of climate information among most farmers in the highly climate-vulnerable groups, whereas it was radio among farmers in the moderately and less climate-vulnerable groups. The moderately climate-vulnerable groups not only have a low probability of utilizing climate information, but they will utilize less of it if they intend to do so, whereas highly climate-vulnerable districts have a lower probability of utilizing but will use more of it if they intend to. Access to climate information through extension services was low among all vulnerable groups. However, farmers who accessed extension services have a high probability of utilizing the information and utilize it more.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100557"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143579201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100555
Swen Brands , Maialen Iturbide , Jaime Díez González-Pardo , Sixto Herrera , Joaquín Bedia , Rodrigo Manzanas , Esteban Rodríguez-Guisado , Santiago Beguería , Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano , José Manuel Gutiérrez
We evaluate different methodological choices for seasonal drought prediction over the Mediterranean region with the multi-dimensional Standardised Evapotranspiration Precipitation Index accumulated over a 3-month time-scale (SPEI-3), based on the ECMWF SEAS5.1 operational prediction system. We analyse two strategies for constructing the index backfilling data prior to model initialization, using real-time quasi-observations from the ERA5 reanalysis (SPEI-3-R), or model data from previous initializations of the same prediction system (SPEI-3-M), and show that model skill is sensitive to these methodological choices. The long 42-year hindcast/prediction record available for this model (1981–2022) allows for a robust skill assessment. A window of significant skill, extending from May to October, is detected over the Iberian Peninsula. This window arises from the cumulative and multivariate nature of the index and cannot entirely be explained by the individual skill of the components, nor by the warming trend during the validation period. Based on these results, seasonal drought predictions relying on the SPEI are currently being enabled in the framework of a new generation of climate services developed in Spain. These go beyond alternative applications available to-date, which usually rely on simpler indices and/or shorter model verification periods.
{"title":"Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services","authors":"Swen Brands , Maialen Iturbide , Jaime Díez González-Pardo , Sixto Herrera , Joaquín Bedia , Rodrigo Manzanas , Esteban Rodríguez-Guisado , Santiago Beguería , Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano , José Manuel Gutiérrez","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100555","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100555","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We evaluate different methodological choices for seasonal drought prediction over the Mediterranean region with the multi-dimensional Standardised Evapotranspiration Precipitation Index accumulated over a 3-month time-scale (SPEI-3), based on the ECMWF SEAS5.1 operational prediction system. We analyse two strategies for constructing the index backfilling data prior to model initialization, using real-time quasi-observations from the ERA5 reanalysis (SPEI-3-R), or model data from previous initializations of the same prediction system (SPEI-3-M), and show that model skill is sensitive to these methodological choices. The long 42-year hindcast/prediction record available for this model (1981–2022) allows for a robust skill assessment. A window of significant skill, extending from May to October, is detected over the Iberian Peninsula. This window arises from the cumulative and multivariate nature of the index and cannot entirely be explained by the individual skill of the components, nor by the warming trend during the validation period. Based on these results, seasonal drought predictions relying on the SPEI are currently being enabled in the framework of a new generation of climate services developed in Spain. These go beyond alternative applications available to-date, which usually rely on simpler indices and/or shorter model verification periods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100555"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-21DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100552
Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Azhar Abbas , Muhammad Imran Azeem , Pomi Shahbaz , Shamsheer ul Haq , Roshan K. Nayak
The agricultural sector of Saudi Arabia is particularly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change due to its prevailing climate and limited water resources. Without the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, farmers may suffer enormous losses. A field survey was conducted in the Madinah region with the aim of analysing the status and factors affecting the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices by farmers as well as their perspective about barriers to adaptation in the country. Data were collected with the help of face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire from 123 randomly selected farmers. Data were analysed using an ordered probit model. The findings reveal that approximately 50% of the crop and livestock producers have moderately adopted to climate change risks. Major factors that affect farmers’ adoption decisions include farmers’ age, education, farm size, farming type (except for livestock herders), extension linkages for crop farmers, availability of veterinary services for livestock farmers, moderate to high level of risk perception and climate change beliefs. A need for increased awareness about climate change vagaries, streamlining extension and veterinary services and promoting technical interventions such as drought- and disease-resistant crop varieties is warranted.
{"title":"Role of risk perception and climate change beliefs in adoption of climate-resilient agricultural practices in Saudi Arabia","authors":"Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Azhar Abbas , Muhammad Imran Azeem , Pomi Shahbaz , Shamsheer ul Haq , Roshan K. Nayak","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100552","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100552","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The agricultural sector of Saudi Arabia is particularly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change due to its prevailing climate and limited water resources. Without the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, farmers may suffer enormous losses. A field survey was conducted in the Madinah region with the aim of analysing the status and factors affecting the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices by farmers as well as their perspective about barriers to adaptation in the country. Data were collected with the help of face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire from 123 randomly selected farmers. Data were analysed using an ordered probit model. The findings reveal that approximately 50% of the crop and livestock producers have moderately adopted to climate change risks. Major factors that affect farmers’ adoption decisions include farmers’ age, education, farm size, farming type (except for livestock herders), extension linkages for crop farmers, availability of veterinary services for livestock farmers, moderate to high level of risk perception and climate change beliefs. A need for increased awareness about climate change vagaries, streamlining extension and veterinary services and promoting technical interventions such as drought- and disease-resistant crop varieties is warranted.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100552"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143453240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-17DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100551
Huiyun Ma , Changjuan Chen , Zhicong Yi , Huihui Feng , Xiaojing Wu
This study explores the construction of a subtropical morning terrain fog detection algorithm for Himawari-8 data. Specifically, the clear sky surface suppression index is constructed to preliminarily remove the clear sky surface by combining Farneback optical flow method. The residual clear sky surface is further removed based on time series brightness temperature difference (BTD) between mid-infrared and thermal infrared. After that, the low-cloud elimination indicator is proposed to remove low clouds and mid-high clouds by coupling the brightness temperatures (BTs) at 10.4 μm with 12.3 μm, 13.3 μm and 8.6 μm with 9.6 μm. Finally, the fast-moving low clouds and residual mid-high clouds are removed by using the ratio of adjacent images at the 9.6 μm BT and the BT at 11.2 μm. The algorithm validation results show that the probability of detection, the false alarm rate and the critical success index are 0.801, 0.099 and 0.747, which show the acceptable performance. Meanwhile, the algorithm effectively avoids the influence of solar zenith angle. The research is capable of attaining near-real-time fog detection and offers pivotal technical support across diverse domains, including transportation planning, environmental management, human health, and agricultural production.
{"title":"Himawari-8 satellite detection of morning terrain fog in a subtropical region","authors":"Huiyun Ma , Changjuan Chen , Zhicong Yi , Huihui Feng , Xiaojing Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100551","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100551","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the construction of a subtropical morning terrain fog detection algorithm for Himawari-8 data. Specifically, the clear sky surface suppression index is constructed to preliminarily remove the clear sky surface by combining Farneback optical flow method. The residual clear sky surface is further removed based on time series brightness temperature difference (BTD) between mid-infrared and thermal infrared. After that, the low-cloud elimination indicator is proposed to remove low clouds and mid-high clouds by coupling the brightness temperatures (BTs) at 10.4 μm with 12.3 μm, 13.3 μm and 8.6 μm with 9.6 μm. Finally, the fast-moving low clouds and residual mid-high clouds are removed by using the ratio of adjacent images at the 9.6 μm BT and the BT at 11.2 μm. The algorithm validation results show that the probability of detection, the false alarm rate and the critical success index are 0.801, 0.099 and 0.747, which show the acceptable performance. Meanwhile, the algorithm effectively avoids the influence of solar zenith angle. The research is capable of attaining near-real-time fog detection and offers pivotal technical support across diverse domains, including transportation planning, environmental management, human health, and agricultural production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100551"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143422250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-13DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100550
Iftikhar Ali , Ashfaq Ahmad Shah , Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Chong Xu , Amjad Ali , Yousuf Ali
Small landholders in Pakistan’s high mountainous regions face significant challenges in adapting to the impacts of climate change. This study investigates the adaptation strategies employed by smallholder farmers to address these challenges and identifies the household-level factors influencing these strategies in Nagar Valley. Using a quantitative approach, data were collected through a structured survey involving 430 households. Data are analyzed using bivariate and probit regression models. The study reveals that smallholder farmers adopt various strategies to cope with climate change, including using chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and insecticides, practicing crop rotation, and transitioning to horticulture. The findings of the multivariate probit model demonstrate a significant association between age, gender, education, and the likelihood of adopting adaptation strategies. The study advocates for developing context-specific climate adaptation strategies tailored to these regions’ unique agroecological zones to enhance small landholders’ resilience against climate change impacts. It also emphasizes the need to raise awareness among smallholders about modern, climate-smart agricultural practices and adaptive strategies.
{"title":"Unveiling the determinants of climate change adaptation among small Landholders: Insights from a Mountainous Region in Pakistan","authors":"Iftikhar Ali , Ashfaq Ahmad Shah , Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Chong Xu , Amjad Ali , Yousuf Ali","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100550","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100550","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Small landholders in Pakistan’s high mountainous regions face significant challenges in adapting to the impacts of climate change. This study investigates the adaptation strategies employed by smallholder farmers to address these challenges and identifies the household-level factors influencing these strategies in Nagar Valley. Using a quantitative approach, data were collected through a structured survey involving 430 households. Data are analyzed using bivariate and probit regression models. The study reveals that smallholder farmers adopt various strategies to cope with climate change, including using chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and insecticides, practicing crop rotation, and transitioning to horticulture. The findings of the multivariate probit model demonstrate a significant association between age, gender, education, and the likelihood of adopting adaptation strategies. The study advocates for developing context-specific climate adaptation strategies tailored to these regions’ unique agroecological zones to enhance small landholders’ resilience against climate change impacts. It also emphasizes the need to raise awareness among smallholders about modern, climate-smart agricultural practices and adaptive strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100550"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143394610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100549
Eva Boon , Nellie Sofie Body , Robbert Biesbroek
<div><div>Climate services are increasingly developed and used to plan for climate change adaptation, but their success is poorly evaluated. A main reason is that an operational framework to support climate service researchers and practitioners pursuing evaluation is lacking. This study addresses this gap by developing and testing a robust and systematic evaluation framework in three steps. First, we designed a framework by operationalising agreed upon criteria for assessing climate service success. Second, the framework was tested in two climate service cases. Third, the usability, credibility, and transparency of the framework was assessed by climate service researchers and practitioners, including those engaged in the cases.</div><div>Our findings show that developed framework offers a standardized approach to evaluation, providing indicators, metrics, and guidance that enable the evaluator to provide a quantitative rating for each criterion. However, the robustness of ratings in the two cases was compromised due to limited interaction with targeted users during the development process and lack a of clear goals set from the beginning. This hampered incorporating the perception of a representative group of users and measuring impacts. Overall, the framework was considered usable by researchers and practitioners for various applications, including using it as design criteria, to facilitate learning, to guide development, and to support monitoring and evaluation. While generally perceived as credible and transparent, the framework would benefit from further testing and elaboration into practical materials. The study highlights that evaluation is done best when evaluation criteria are considered early in the development of the climate service.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>Climate services are seen as important means to support and accelerate adaptation action. While investments in climate service development and use are increasing, their evaluation typically falls short. One reason for this is the lack of a sound evaluation framework. This study aimed to develop a robust and systematic evaluation framework that can be used in both science and practice settings. The framework was tested in two implemented climate service cases, and evaluated by climate service users, practitioners, and researchers, as well as by the evaluators themselves. <span><span>Supplementary file 2</span></span> provides the framework, and an accompanying protocol describing important process steps to apply it. It also offers guidance on how to consider the success criteria during the development stages of a climate service, through guiding questions and a checklist. Here we present the practical implications of this study by (1) outlining the basic principles of the framework, summarizing the results of (2) testing and (3) evaluating the framework that have most practical relevance, and (4) highlighting suggestions for improving evaluation practice.</d
{"title":"Developing and testing an evaluation framework for climate services for adaptation","authors":"Eva Boon , Nellie Sofie Body , Robbert Biesbroek","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100549","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100549","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate services are increasingly developed and used to plan for climate change adaptation, but their success is poorly evaluated. A main reason is that an operational framework to support climate service researchers and practitioners pursuing evaluation is lacking. This study addresses this gap by developing and testing a robust and systematic evaluation framework in three steps. First, we designed a framework by operationalising agreed upon criteria for assessing climate service success. Second, the framework was tested in two climate service cases. Third, the usability, credibility, and transparency of the framework was assessed by climate service researchers and practitioners, including those engaged in the cases.</div><div>Our findings show that developed framework offers a standardized approach to evaluation, providing indicators, metrics, and guidance that enable the evaluator to provide a quantitative rating for each criterion. However, the robustness of ratings in the two cases was compromised due to limited interaction with targeted users during the development process and lack a of clear goals set from the beginning. This hampered incorporating the perception of a representative group of users and measuring impacts. Overall, the framework was considered usable by researchers and practitioners for various applications, including using it as design criteria, to facilitate learning, to guide development, and to support monitoring and evaluation. While generally perceived as credible and transparent, the framework would benefit from further testing and elaboration into practical materials. The study highlights that evaluation is done best when evaluation criteria are considered early in the development of the climate service.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>Climate services are seen as important means to support and accelerate adaptation action. While investments in climate service development and use are increasing, their evaluation typically falls short. One reason for this is the lack of a sound evaluation framework. This study aimed to develop a robust and systematic evaluation framework that can be used in both science and practice settings. The framework was tested in two implemented climate service cases, and evaluated by climate service users, practitioners, and researchers, as well as by the evaluators themselves. <span><span>Supplementary file 2</span></span> provides the framework, and an accompanying protocol describing important process steps to apply it. It also offers guidance on how to consider the success criteria during the development stages of a climate service, through guiding questions and a checklist. Here we present the practical implications of this study by (1) outlining the basic principles of the framework, summarizing the results of (2) testing and (3) evaluating the framework that have most practical relevance, and (4) highlighting suggestions for improving evaluation practice.</d","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100549"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143394609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change has adversely affected the livelihoods of people in developing countries where a large proportion of the population is heavily dependent on agriculture. Indigenous people need to perceive that the climate is changing or likely could change, and they need to pay sufficient attention to this perception to take action. Understanding farmers’ perceptions about climate change and adaptation strategies can help support their efforts and develop interventions more suited to the local context. Hence, this study aimed to elucidate how farmers perceive climate change in their locality and how they adapt to observed changes in the Dendi district, West Shewa Zone, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to gather information on farmers’ perceptions of climate change, observed threats, and adaptation practices to observed changes from 144 sample farmers. Key informant interviews and focus group discussions were also conducted to gather more insights into trends in climate change, threats, and adaptation practices in the area. Additionally, climate data of the district from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed to assess trends in temperature and rainfall in the study area. The findings of the study revealed an increasing trend in maximum temperatures in the study area, while the mean minimum temperatures slightly decreased. Rainfall trends have significantly decreased over the past three decades, with seasonal rainfall also declining. The majority of the respondents replied that they perceived an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall. Specifically, 79.2% of the respondents perceived rising temperatures, while 16.7% perceived a decrease in temperature. Additionally, 77.1% of respondents replied that there was a decrease in both the amount and distribution of rainfall. The socio-economic analysis reveals that weather events in the study area vary in frequency across agroecologies. The major events identified include prolonged droughts with late-onset or early offset of rains (84.5%), floods/excessive moisture (71.6%), crop disease (70.8%), and erosion (56.9%). As rain-fed crop production relies on the timely and normal distribution of rainfall, these events significantly disrupt agricultural operations, particularly in mid-altitude and lowland areas. The impacts, sometimes, include total crop loss, reduced yields, smaller seeding areas, delayed planting and maturity, and increased crop pests. Respondents reported various climate change adaptation practices, including adjusting cropping calendars, changing crop types, diversifying livelihoods, and adopting improved crop varieties and irrigation. However, the effectiveness of these practices was limited by resource and skill constraints. To enhance resilience, it is crucial to provide reliable climate information, offer training on climate-smart agriculture, ensure access to updated climate data, and promote improved irrigation methods.
{"title":"Observed climate trends and farmers’ adaptation strategies in Dendi District, West Shewa Zone, Ethiopia","authors":"Busha Getachew , Gonfa Kewessa , Worku Hailu , Gezahegn Girma","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has adversely affected the livelihoods of people in developing countries where a large proportion of the population is heavily dependent on agriculture. Indigenous people need to perceive that the climate is changing or likely could change, and they need to pay sufficient attention to this perception to take action. Understanding farmers’ perceptions about climate change and adaptation strategies can help support their efforts and develop interventions more suited to the local context. Hence, this study aimed to elucidate how farmers perceive climate change in their locality and how they adapt to observed changes in the Dendi district, West Shewa Zone, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to gather information on farmers’ perceptions of climate change, observed threats, and adaptation practices to observed changes from 144 sample farmers. Key informant interviews and focus group discussions were also conducted to gather more insights into trends in climate change, threats, and adaptation practices in the area. Additionally, climate data of the district from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed to assess trends in temperature and rainfall in the study area. The findings of the study revealed an increasing trend in maximum temperatures in the study area, while the mean minimum temperatures slightly decreased. Rainfall trends have significantly decreased over the past three decades, with seasonal rainfall also declining. The majority of the respondents replied that they perceived an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall. Specifically, 79.2% of the respondents perceived rising temperatures, while 16.7% perceived a decrease in temperature. Additionally, 77.1% of respondents replied that there was a decrease in both the amount and distribution of rainfall. The socio-economic analysis reveals that weather events in the study area vary in frequency across agroecologies. The major events identified include prolonged droughts with late-onset or early offset of rains (84.5%), floods/excessive moisture (71.6%), crop disease (70.8%), and erosion (56.9%). As rain-fed crop production relies on the timely and normal distribution of rainfall, these events significantly disrupt agricultural operations, particularly in mid-altitude and lowland areas. The impacts, sometimes, include total crop loss, reduced yields, smaller seeding areas, delayed planting and maturity, and increased crop pests. Respondents reported various climate change adaptation practices, including adjusting cropping calendars, changing crop types, diversifying livelihoods, and adopting improved crop varieties and irrigation. However, the effectiveness of these practices was limited by resource and skill constraints. To enhance resilience, it is crucial to provide reliable climate information, offer training on climate-smart agriculture, ensure access to updated climate data, and promote improved irrigation methods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100548"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143349925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号