Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-02-11DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100640
Schrage Jesse , Venning Mathias
Climate services are often positioned as tools to enhance resilience, guide policy, and enable decision-making in the face of climate variability. However, these framings rarely interrogate the social underpinnings of what climate services are for, how their demand arises, and in what ways they become embedded in the routines of life, governance, and planning. Taking inspiration from social practice theory, this article reconceptualizes climate services as evolving components within bundles of social practices and charts out a number of suggestions to rethink climate service useability and implementation. In doing so, it raises foundational questions about the meaning, purpose, and evolution of climate service demand, aiming to reframe their role within adaptation governance.
{"title":"What are climate services for? Social practices, adaptation, and the dynamics of demand","authors":"Schrage Jesse , Venning Mathias","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100640","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100640","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate services are often positioned as tools to enhance resilience, guide policy, and enable decision-making in the face of climate variability. However, these framings rarely interrogate the social underpinnings of what climate services are for, how their demand arises, and in what ways they become embedded in the routines of life, governance, and planning. Taking inspiration from social practice theory, this article reconceptualizes climate services as evolving components within bundles of social practices and charts out a number of suggestions to rethink climate service useability and implementation. In doing so, it raises foundational questions about the meaning, purpose, and evolution of climate service demand, aiming to reframe their role within adaptation governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100640"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-29DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100642
Willem A. Landman , Mark Tadross , Peter Johnston , Olivier Crespo , Emma Archer
Whilst skilful seasonal climate forecasts are routinely produced, their ability to support profitable agricultural decision-making remains uncertain, particularly in regions with modest seasonal predictability and high climate variability. We assess the financial implications of using a statistically derived seasonal maize crop-yield forecast for a medium-size commercial farm in South Africa, focusing on how forecast attributes interact with farmer investment strategies. A cumulative profit framework is used to evaluate three stylised strategies representing different levels of risk exposure under forecast uncertainty. The crop-yield forecasts exhibit measurable skill but limited reliability, notably underpredicting the likelihood of ‘normal’ crop-yield seasons – and this reliability bias has important financial consequences. Reinvesting all available capital can be highly profitable when forecasts are mostly accurate, but leads to catastrophic losses when forecasts are given with a high degree of confidence, but are ultimately inaccurate. Conversely, partial reinvestment offers greater resilience to forecast errors, while a fixed annual investment strategy often produces the most stable long-term outcomes. Riskier strategies are most profitable when forecast weaknesses are avoided. These results demonstrate that even highly skilful seasonal yield forecasts can produce adverse financial outcomes if forecast reliability and decision risk are not explicitly considered. Aligning investment strategies with forecast attributes (such as reliability) and risk tolerance, and complementing standard forecast verification with simple financial metrics, is essential for effective agricultural climate services.
{"title":"Seasonal forecast characteristics influence the financial success of farming strategies","authors":"Willem A. Landman , Mark Tadross , Peter Johnston , Olivier Crespo , Emma Archer","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100642","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100642","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Whilst skilful seasonal climate forecasts are routinely produced, their ability to support profitable agricultural decision-making remains uncertain, particularly in regions with modest seasonal predictability and high climate variability. We assess the financial implications of using a statistically derived seasonal maize crop-yield forecast for a medium-size commercial farm in South Africa, focusing on how forecast attributes interact with farmer investment strategies. A cumulative profit framework is used to evaluate three stylised strategies representing different levels of risk exposure under forecast uncertainty. The crop-yield forecasts exhibit measurable skill but limited reliability, notably underpredicting the likelihood of ‘normal’ crop-yield seasons – and this reliability bias has important financial consequences. Reinvesting all available capital can be highly profitable when forecasts are mostly accurate, but leads to catastrophic losses when forecasts are given with a high degree of confidence, but are ultimately inaccurate. Conversely, partial reinvestment offers greater resilience to forecast errors, while a fixed annual investment strategy often produces the most stable long-term outcomes. Riskier strategies are most profitable when forecast weaknesses are avoided. These results demonstrate that even highly skilful seasonal yield forecasts can produce adverse financial outcomes if forecast reliability and decision risk are not explicitly considered. Aligning investment strategies with forecast attributes (such as reliability) and risk tolerance, and complementing standard forecast verification with simple financial metrics, is essential for effective agricultural climate services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100642"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-27DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100637
Amare Amsalu , Weyessa Garedew , Girma Alemu Melka , Mehmet Ali Çelik , Dessalegn Obsi Gemeda
Smallholder coffee farming in tropical highlands is increasingly threatened by climate change. This study examines the trends and potential effects of climate extreme indices on coffee farming households in the Kafa Biosphere Reserve using daily rainfall and temperature data (1985–2023). Twelve extreme climate indices (six temperature and six rainfall indices) were computed from Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) records following the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) standards. Trend analyses were performed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Results indicate significant warming with annual maximum temperatures (TXx) rising at rates of 0.02–0.04°C yr−1 across stations. The number of hot days (TX90p) increased significantly at all stations except Wushwush. Rainfall extremes show significant upward trends with annual rainfall increment up to 11.43 mm yr−1 in Genji. Heavy rainfall days (RX1day) and rainfall intensity (SDII) increased notably across multiple stations, while consecutive wet days (CWD) decreased slightly in some stations. In general, many climates extreme indices trends seem to exceed the tolerance range of Coffea arabica, reducing yield and quality and raising pest and disease risks. These trends threaten both farmer livelihoods and Ethiopia’s position in the global specialty coffee market. Therefore, adaptation strategies such as shade management, heat-tolerant varieties, and soil and water conservation are essential to sustain smallholder livelihoods. Moreover, integrating local climate adaptation into agricultural and environmental policies is critical for strengthening the resilience of both coffee systems and biodiversity in the Kafa Biosphere Reserve.
热带高地的小农咖啡种植日益受到气候变化的威胁。利用1985-2023年的日降雨量和温度数据，研究了气候极端指数对Kafa生物圈保护区咖啡农户的趋势和潜在影响。根据气候变化探测和指数专家组（ETCCDI）的标准，从埃塞俄比亚气象研究所（EMI）的记录中计算了12个极端气候指数（6个温度指数和6个降雨指数）。趋势分析采用Mann-Kendall检验和Sen斜率估计。结果表明，各站点的年最高气温（TXx）以每年0.02-0.04°C的速率上升。除乌苏里湖站外，其余站点的高温日数（TX90p）均显著增加。源氏极端降水呈显著上升趋势，年降雨量增量可达11.43 mm yr - 1。多个站点的暴雨日数（RX1day）和降雨强度（SDII）显著增加，部分站点的连续湿日数（CWD）略有减少。总的来说，许多气候极端指数趋势似乎超出了阿拉比卡咖啡的耐受范围，降低了产量和质量，并增加了病虫害风险。这些趋势既威胁到农民的生计，也威胁到埃塞俄比亚在全球精品咖啡市场的地位。因此，诸如遮荫管理、耐热品种和水土保持等适应策略对于维持小农生计至关重要。此外，将当地气候适应纳入农业和环境政策对于加强Kafa生物圈保护区咖啡系统和生物多样性的复原力至关重要。
{"title":"Trends in climate extreme indices and implications for coffee farming in The Kafa Biosphere Reserve, southwest Ethiopia","authors":"Amare Amsalu , Weyessa Garedew , Girma Alemu Melka , Mehmet Ali Çelik , Dessalegn Obsi Gemeda","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100637","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100637","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Smallholder coffee farming in tropical highlands is increasingly threatened by climate change. This study examines the trends and potential effects of climate extreme indices on coffee farming households in the Kafa Biosphere Reserve using daily rainfall and temperature data (1985–2023). Twelve extreme climate indices (six temperature and six rainfall indices) were computed from Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) records following the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) standards. Trend analyses were performed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Results indicate significant warming with annual maximum temperatures (TXx) rising at rates of 0.02–0.04°C yr<sup>−1</sup> across stations. The number of hot days (TX90p) increased significantly at all stations except Wushwush. Rainfall extremes show significant upward trends with annual rainfall increment up to 11.43 mm yr<sup>−1</sup> in Genji. Heavy rainfall days (RX1day) and rainfall intensity (SDII) increased notably across multiple stations, while consecutive wet days (CWD) decreased slightly in some stations. In general, many climates extreme indices trends seem to exceed the tolerance range of <em>Coffea arabica</em>, reducing yield and quality and raising pest and disease risks. These trends threaten both farmer livelihoods and Ethiopia’s position in the global specialty coffee market. Therefore, adaptation strategies such as shade management, heat-tolerant varieties, and soil and water conservation are essential to sustain smallholder livelihoods. Moreover, integrating local climate adaptation into agricultural and environmental policies is critical for strengthening the resilience of both coffee systems and biodiversity in the Kafa Biosphere Reserve.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100637"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-29DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100635
Radhika Singh , Grazia Pacillo , Alessandro Craparo , Martina Jaskolski , Victor Villa , Brenda Chepngetich , Victor Korir , Bina Desai , Peter Läderach
This article critically examines the development and use of maps in climate security research and practice. Drawing on cartographic theory and practical experience in spatial analysis, we analyze how maps used in the field of climate security render territories legible, facilitate communication across diverse stakeholders, and enable user engagement. While acknowledging maps’ utility in visualizing complex climate-conflict relationships, we also identify significant limitations: subjective data decisions often hidden behind maps’ authoritative appearance, reproduction of power dynamics that privilege certain knowledge forms, and abstraction processes that may oversimplify socio-political realities. Rather than merely critiquing maps, we advocate for more reflexive mapping practices that acknowledge limitations, incorporate diverse knowledge systems, and promote transparency in data sources and methodological choices. This approach can help mapmakers and users engage more responsibly with mapping in the field of climate security.
{"title":"Reflections on the use of maps in the field of climate, peace, and security","authors":"Radhika Singh , Grazia Pacillo , Alessandro Craparo , Martina Jaskolski , Victor Villa , Brenda Chepngetich , Victor Korir , Bina Desai , Peter Läderach","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100635","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100635","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article critically examines the development and use of maps in climate security research and practice. Drawing on cartographic theory and practical experience in spatial analysis, we analyze how maps used in the field of climate security render territories legible, facilitate communication across diverse stakeholders, and enable user engagement. While acknowledging maps’ utility in visualizing complex climate-conflict relationships, we also identify significant limitations: subjective data decisions often hidden behind maps’ authoritative appearance, reproduction of power dynamics that privilege certain knowledge forms, and abstraction processes that may oversimplify socio-political realities. Rather than merely critiquing maps, we advocate for more reflexive mapping practices that acknowledge limitations, incorporate diverse knowledge systems, and promote transparency in data sources and methodological choices. This approach can help mapmakers and users engage more responsibly with mapping in the field of climate security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100635"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-27DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100634
Eunice Paula Armando Cavane , Jeffrey Uqueio , Almeida Alberto Sitoe
Unclear definition of institutional roles in climate change (CC) adaptation, across local, national, and regional levels, undermines the effectiveness of CC adaptation strategies. Addressing this governance gap is essential for translating global climate goals into actionable, context-specific adaptation measures. This study used mixed methods to explore local experience of climate change impacts, and explain the role of local institutions in adaptation to CC in the Pafúri region, located in the buffer zone of Limpopo National Park, and highly prone to drought and flooding. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 80 community leaders and eight representatives of local organizations; and a questionnaire was administered to 106 randomly selected households. The results indicate that droughts and floods cause food insecurity in the region, and this is exacerbated by crop raiding and livestock predation by wildlife. Training on CC and membership in producers’ associations are key factors (P < 0.05) of adaptation. Hence, institutional roles should prioritize establishment of producers’ associations and training programmes. Nevertheless, there is a risk of limited institutional access due to the overlap across institutions in service provision. Our findings highlight the complexity of “role clarification” at the local level, and the opportunity to strengthen local governance in developing resilient, and responsive CC adaptation measures. This implies that CC adaptation policies should support research and facilitation of social learning among local institutions, to jointly develop (or reform) mechanisms for refining institutional mandates for CC adaptation with a view to reducing overlapping roles and responsibilities and enhancing institutional access by local communities.
{"title":"Adapting to climate change: emerging local institutions in Mozambique","authors":"Eunice Paula Armando Cavane , Jeffrey Uqueio , Almeida Alberto Sitoe","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100634","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100634","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Unclear definition of institutional roles in climate change (CC) adaptation, across local, national, and regional levels, undermines the effectiveness of CC adaptation strategies. Addressing this governance gap is essential for translating global climate goals into actionable, context-specific adaptation measures. This study used mixed methods to explore local experience of climate change impacts, and explain the role of local institutions in adaptation to CC in the Pafúri region, located in the buffer zone of Limpopo National Park, and highly prone to drought and flooding. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 80 community leaders and eight representatives of local organizations; and a questionnaire was administered to 106 randomly selected households. The results indicate that droughts and floods cause food insecurity in the region, and this is exacerbated by crop raiding and livestock predation by wildlife. Training on CC and membership in producers’ associations are key factors (P < 0.05) of adaptation. Hence, institutional roles should prioritize establishment of producers’ associations and training programmes. Nevertheless, there is a risk of limited institutional access due to the overlap across institutions in service provision. Our findings highlight the complexity of “role clarification” at the local level, and the opportunity to strengthen local governance in developing resilient, and responsive CC adaptation measures. This implies that CC adaptation policies should support research and facilitation of social learning among local institutions, to jointly develop (or reform) mechanisms for refining institutional mandates for CC adaptation with a view to reducing overlapping roles and responsibilities and enhancing institutional access by local communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100634"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-02-04DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100641
Cossi Ulriche Afatondji , Eva Schlecht , Luc Hippolyte Dossa
The effects of climate variability and change on the agricultural sector and its livestock sub-sector, both key livelihood sources for rural populations in Benin and other sub-Saharan countries, have major impacts on regional economies and food security. To adequately mitigate and cope with the adverse consequences of climate variability and change on livestock productivity, cattle herders have developed various strategies. This study documents the climate perceptions of farmers keeping non-local cattle breeds and how these perceptions affect their livestock management and choice of adaptation strategies. To achieve this objective, 305 herders were randomly selected and interviewed in 10 municipalities across three phytogeographic zones of Benin. The comparison of respondents’ perceptions to recently published rainfall and temperature trends showed that most herders were aware of the temperature and rainfall patterns. However, their perceptions aligned more closely with short-term anomalies than long-term meteorological trends. The respondents’ most commonly adopted adaptation strategies were the use of crop residues for feeding and reliance on long-distance mobility. Logistic regression model analyses revealed that phytogeographic zone, membership in a livestock breeders’ association, proportion of zebu in the herd, and number of sheep owned were important variables affecting the choice of adaptation strategies. These findings demonstrate that livestock adaptation decisions are driven by experienced climatic stress rather than statistical trends and are strongly mediated by socio-institutional factors. The study highlights the need for participatory, livestock-specific climate services that integrate herders’ experiential knowledge with localized climate information to enhance adaptive decision-making and pastoral resilience under increasing climate variability.
{"title":"Informing livestock climate services through Herders’ climate perceptions and adaptation strategies in Benin","authors":"Cossi Ulriche Afatondji , Eva Schlecht , Luc Hippolyte Dossa","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100641","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100641","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The effects of climate variability and change on the agricultural sector and its livestock sub-sector, both key livelihood sources for rural populations in Benin and other sub-Saharan countries, have major impacts on regional economies and food security. To adequately mitigate and cope with the adverse consequences of climate variability and change on livestock productivity, cattle herders have developed various strategies. This study documents the climate perceptions of farmers keeping non-local cattle breeds and how these perceptions affect their livestock management and choice of adaptation strategies. To achieve this objective, 305 herders were randomly selected and interviewed in 10 municipalities across three phytogeographic zones of Benin. The comparison of respondents’ perceptions to recently published rainfall and temperature trends showed that most herders were aware of the temperature and rainfall patterns. However, their perceptions aligned more closely with short-term anomalies than long-term meteorological trends. The respondents’ most commonly adopted adaptation strategies were the use of crop residues for feeding and reliance on long-distance mobility. Logistic regression model analyses revealed that phytogeographic zone, membership in a livestock breeders’ association, proportion of zebu in the herd, and number of sheep owned were important variables affecting the choice of adaptation strategies. These findings demonstrate that livestock adaptation decisions are driven by experienced climatic stress rather than statistical trends and are strongly mediated by socio-institutional factors. The study highlights the need for participatory, livestock-specific climate services that integrate herders’ experiential knowledge with localized climate information to enhance adaptive decision-making and pastoral resilience under increasing climate variability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100641"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-23DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100636
Elena Bianco , Paolo Davini , Giuseppe Zappa , Agostino Manzato , Antonio Giordani , Paolo Ruggieri
In recent years, Europe has experienced several episodes of catastrophic flooding that were unprecedented in the historical record. Estimating the impact of rare flood events is crucial for improving risk preparedness and emergency management, but this effort is hampered by the limited availability of historical data. We describe a modular framework for generating a catalogue of physically plausible high-impact flood events using ensemble prediction systems. The framework builds on existing methodologies for the analysis, validation, and pooling of seasonal reforecasts from the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) with the UNSEEN (UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles) approach. We employ the probabilistic impact model CLImate ADAptation (CLIMADA, Aznar-Siguan and Bresch (2019)) to identify a subset of events with severe impact potential. Synoptic patterns are reconstructed using the ECMWF SEASonal forecasts version 5 (SEAS5) reforecasts to form a catalogue of plausible extremes. We illustrate the case study of the Panaro watershed in Emilia-Romagna, Italy, a region affected by multiple record-breaking floods in recent years. The analysis illustrates the added value of combining ensemble pooling with impact modelling, to anticipate high-impact extreme events before they occur. Our framework can be leveraged to explore risk storylines for stress-testing, and to support adaptation decision making for disaster management.
{"title":"A framework for generating catalogues of high-impact UNSEEN flood events","authors":"Elena Bianco , Paolo Davini , Giuseppe Zappa , Agostino Manzato , Antonio Giordani , Paolo Ruggieri","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100636","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100636","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In recent years, Europe has experienced several episodes of catastrophic flooding that were unprecedented in the historical record. Estimating the impact of rare flood events is crucial for improving risk preparedness and emergency management, but this effort is hampered by the limited availability of historical data. We describe a modular framework for generating a catalogue of physically plausible high-impact flood events using ensemble prediction systems. The framework builds on existing methodologies for the analysis, validation, and pooling of seasonal reforecasts from the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) with the UNSEEN (UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles) approach. We employ the probabilistic impact model CLImate ADAptation (CLIMADA, Aznar-Siguan and Bresch (2019)) to identify a subset of events with severe impact potential. Synoptic patterns are reconstructed using the ECMWF SEASonal forecasts version 5 (SEAS5) reforecasts to form a catalogue of plausible extremes. We illustrate the case study of the Panaro watershed in Emilia-Romagna, Italy, a region affected by multiple record-breaking floods in recent years. The analysis illustrates the added value of combining ensemble pooling with impact modelling, to anticipate high-impact extreme events before they occur. Our framework can be leveraged to explore risk storylines for stress-testing, and to support adaptation decision making for disaster management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100636"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039694","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-02-14DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100645
Jonas Olsson , Johan Kjellin , Sara Tunjic Ekeroth , Fanny Jeppson Stahl , Erik Glaas
Pluvial flood mapping is a common way to identify locations at risk of being flooded in connection with an extreme short-duration rainfall. As rainfall extremes are expected to intensify in a warmer climate, more and more cities and municipalities are performing pluvial flood mapping, in Sweden and elsewhere. Often a rainfall with a return period of 100–200 years is used in the mapping, and the main question underlying this study is to which extent such conventional flood mapping can provide useful indications also of the consequences of a far more severe rainfall. To investigate this question we use the worst urban flooding in Sweden to date as a case study. In Aug 2021, a record-breaking rainfall with a return period > 1000 years hit Gävle city on the east coast, resulting in widespread flooding and massive damages. We reconstruct the space–time evolution of this event by combining different rainfall observations and using them as input to a high-resolution hydrodynamic model. The reconstruction was overall successfully validated using municipal and citizen observations. Different representations of the rainfall had limited impact on the average flood response, but distinct local differences were found. Comparing the reconstructed flooding with the results from a conventional 100-year flood mapping revealed that overall the worst flooded locations during the actual event were also pointed out in the conventional mapping, albeit with some differences. We recommend to always include assessments of fluxes and water velocities as well as sensitivity tests of very extreme rainfalls in pluvial flood mapping.
{"title":"Ready for the flood? Assessing the applicability of pluvial flood mapping based on the worst urban flood in Sweden","authors":"Jonas Olsson , Johan Kjellin , Sara Tunjic Ekeroth , Fanny Jeppson Stahl , Erik Glaas","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100645","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100645","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pluvial flood mapping is a common way to identify locations at risk of being flooded in connection with an extreme short-duration rainfall. As rainfall extremes are expected to intensify in a warmer climate, more and more cities and municipalities are performing pluvial flood mapping, in Sweden and elsewhere. Often a rainfall with a return period of 100–200 years is used in the mapping, and the main question underlying this study is to which extent such conventional flood mapping can provide useful indications also of the consequences of a far more severe rainfall. To investigate this question we use the worst urban flooding in Sweden to date as a case study. In Aug 2021, a record-breaking rainfall with a return period > 1000 years hit Gävle city on the east coast, resulting in widespread flooding and massive damages. We reconstruct the space–time evolution of this event by combining different rainfall observations and using them as input to a high-resolution hydrodynamic model. The reconstruction was overall successfully validated using municipal and citizen observations. Different representations of the rainfall had limited impact on the average flood response, but distinct local differences were found. Comparing the reconstructed flooding with the results from a conventional 100-year flood mapping revealed that overall the worst flooded locations during the actual event were also pointed out in the conventional mapping, albeit with some differences. We recommend to always include assessments of fluxes and water velocities as well as sensitivity tests of very extreme rainfalls in pluvial flood mapping.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"42 ","pages":"Article 100645"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-12-05DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100629
Anna Napoli , Michael Matiu , Lavinia Laiti , Roberto Barbiero , David Tombolato , Silvia Scarian Monsorno , Alberto Bellin , Dino Zardi , Bruno Majone
Many regional administrations are currently developing tailored adaptation strategies, based on the unique characteristics of their territories, which includes local climate patterns and, more importantly, environmental and socioeconomic factors. Yet, exploiting this wealth of information to design effective climate strategies remains a challenge. This study outlines the approach used to establish the basis for the climate strategy in the Autonomous Province of Trento, a mountainous region in northern Italy and part of the European Alps. The approach adopted by the regional government emphasizes the need for a multi-level, multi-stakeholder approach to shape the development of a regional adaptation strategy. Here, we present three major steps of this process, highlighting the collaborative effort between diverse entities: (1) Compilation of an up-to-date scientific review of the existing knowledge about climate change impacts in the region, (2) Creation of reference climate scenarios, and (3) Dissemination of a summary of the report to the general public. The literature review revealed large heterogeneity across socioeconomic sectors in the scientific literature focusing on the impacts of climate change. This disparity was reflected in the informative report, which simplified and summarized the technical information without sacrificing scientific accuracy. The creation of climate scenarios had to balance multiple aspects, including mountain topography, data availability, and needs from stakeholders, by using a layered approach combining spatially aggregated results, statistical downscaling, and high-resolution convection-permitting models.
{"title":"Building the scientific basis for the adaptation strategy of an Alpine region: The ‘State of the climate in Trentino’ report","authors":"Anna Napoli , Michael Matiu , Lavinia Laiti , Roberto Barbiero , David Tombolato , Silvia Scarian Monsorno , Alberto Bellin , Dino Zardi , Bruno Majone","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100629","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100629","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many regional administrations are currently developing tailored adaptation strategies, based on the unique characteristics of their territories, which includes local climate patterns and, more importantly, environmental and socioeconomic factors. Yet, exploiting this wealth of information to design effective climate strategies remains a challenge. This study outlines the approach used to establish the basis for the climate strategy in the Autonomous Province of Trento, a mountainous region in northern Italy and part of the European Alps. The approach adopted by the regional government emphasizes the need for a multi-level, multi-stakeholder approach to shape the development of a regional adaptation strategy. Here, we present three major steps of this process, highlighting the collaborative effort between diverse entities: (1) Compilation of an up-to-date scientific review of the existing knowledge about climate change impacts in the region, (2) Creation of reference climate scenarios, and (3) Dissemination of a summary of the report to the general public. The literature review revealed large heterogeneity across socioeconomic sectors in the scientific literature focusing on the impacts of climate change. This disparity was reflected in the informative report, which simplified and summarized the technical information without sacrificing scientific accuracy. The creation of climate scenarios had to balance multiple aspects, including mountain topography, data availability, and needs from stakeholders, by using a layered approach combining spatially aggregated results, statistical downscaling, and high-resolution convection-permitting models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100629"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145685865","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100633
Marc de Vos , Yaprak Onat , James O’Donnell
Climate information frequently lacks sufficient detail and accuracy to be actionable at local scales, posing a challenge to the prioritization of limited resources. Several downscaled CMIP6 projections were evaluated across the state of Connecticut to assess their suitability for local planning. Reliability was assessed via statistical comparison to observations from around the State, for overlapping periods from 1980 to 2024. At first order, reliability varied strongly by climate variable and weakly by factors such as downscaling technique and model. Daily minimum temperatures were reliably reproduced in both summer and winter. Daily maximum temperatures and daily average wind speeds returned mixed reliability. Daily average precipitation estimates were uniformly unreliable. Extreme value analysis applied to reliable projections from 2015 to 2100 indicates that by late-century, the 1-in-10-year hot-day warms by ≈ 3 °C under SSP2-4.5 (≈ 4 °C, SSP5-8.5). Warming is similar for the 1-in-100-year event. Consequently, the former 10-year event becomes annual, and the 100-year return period becomes 2.4–7 years. Decadal winter cold extremes warm by 6–11 °C by late century, and historical 1-in-10-year winter lows are unlikely to recur more than once per century. Changes to daily average wind speed extremes are muted, with inconsistent signs. Spatial structure of changes is modest, with slightly higher warming inland compared to the coast. These results suggest that temperature projections could reliably inform detailed local mitigation and adaptation. Extreme wind and precipitation projections, however, should be used to underpin specific local interventions only with due regard to their relative uncertainty, notwithstanding the likelihood of broad, regional increases.
{"title":"Evaluation of high-resolution downscaled CMIP6 projections for adaptation to climate extremes in Connecticut","authors":"Marc de Vos , Yaprak Onat , James O’Donnell","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100633","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100633","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate information frequently lacks sufficient detail and accuracy to be actionable at local scales, posing a challenge to the prioritization of limited resources. Several downscaled CMIP6 projections were evaluated across the state of Connecticut to assess their suitability for local planning. Reliability was assessed via statistical comparison to observations from around the State, for overlapping periods from 1980 to 2024. At first order, reliability varied strongly by climate variable and weakly by factors such as downscaling technique and model. Daily minimum temperatures were reliably reproduced in both summer and winter. Daily maximum temperatures and daily average wind speeds returned mixed reliability. Daily average precipitation estimates were uniformly unreliable. Extreme value analysis applied to reliable projections from 2015 to 2100 indicates that by late-century, the 1-in-10-year hot-day warms by ≈ 3 °C under SSP2-4.5 (≈ 4 °C, SSP5-8.5). Warming is similar for the 1-in-100-year event. Consequently, the former 10-year event becomes annual, and the 100-year return period becomes 2.4–7 years. Decadal winter cold extremes warm by 6–11 °C by late century, and historical 1-in-10-year winter lows are unlikely to recur more than once per century. Changes to daily average wind speed extremes are muted, with inconsistent signs. Spatial structure of changes is modest, with slightly higher warming inland compared to the coast. These results suggest that temperature projections could reliably inform detailed local mitigation and adaptation. Extreme wind and precipitation projections, however, should be used to underpin specific local interventions only with due regard to their relative uncertainty, notwithstanding the likelihood of broad, regional increases.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100633"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146037605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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