Climate Services最新文献

Seasonal forecast characteristics influence the financial success of farming strategies 季节预报的特点影响着农业战略的经济成功

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100642

Willem A. Landman , Mark Tadross , Peter Johnston , Olivier Crespo , Emma Archer

Whilst skilful seasonal climate forecasts are routinely produced, their ability to support profitable agricultural decision-making remains uncertain, particularly in regions with modest seasonal predictability and high climate variability. We assess the financial implications of using a statistically derived seasonal maize crop-yield forecast for a medium-size commercial farm in South Africa, focusing on how forecast attributes interact with farmer investment strategies. A cumulative profit framework is used to evaluate three stylised strategies representing different levels of risk exposure under forecast uncertainty. The crop-yield forecasts exhibit measurable skill but limited reliability, notably underpredicting the likelihood of ‘normal’ crop-yield seasons – and this reliability bias has important financial consequences. Reinvesting all available capital can be highly profitable when forecasts are mostly accurate, but leads to catastrophic losses when forecasts are given with a high degree of confidence, but are ultimately inaccurate. Conversely, partial reinvestment offers greater resilience to forecast errors, while a fixed annual investment strategy often produces the most stable long-term outcomes. Riskier strategies are most profitable when forecast weaknesses are avoided. These results demonstrate that even highly skilful seasonal yield forecasts can produce adverse financial outcomes if forecast reliability and decision risk are not explicitly considered. Aligning investment strategies with forecast attributes (such as reliability) and risk tolerance, and complementing standard forecast verification with simple financial metrics, is essential for effective agricultural climate services.

虽然熟练的季节气候预报是常规编制，但其支持有利可图的农业决策的能力仍然不确定，特别是在季节可预测性不高和气候多变性高的地区。我们对南非一家中型商业农场的季节性玉米作物产量预测进行了财务评估，重点关注预测属性如何与农民投资策略相互作用。累积利润框架用于评估在预测不确定性下代表不同风险敞口水平的三种程式化策略。作物产量预测显示出可测量的技巧，但可靠性有限，特别是低估了“正常”作物产量季节的可能性——这种可靠性偏差具有重要的经济后果。当预测基本准确时，对所有可用资本进行再投资可以获得高额利润，但当预测非常有信心，但最终却不准确时，就会导致灾难性的损失。相反，部分再投资对预测错误提供了更大的弹性，而固定的年度投资策略通常会产生最稳定的长期结果。当避免预测弱点时，风险较高的策略最有利可图。这些结果表明，如果没有明确考虑预测可靠性和决策风险，即使是非常熟练的季节性产量预测也会产生不利的财务结果。将投资策略与预测属性（如可靠性）和风险承受能力相结合，并用简单的财务指标补充标准预测验证，对于有效的农业气候服务至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Reflections on the use of maps in the field of climate, peace, and security 关于在气候、和平与安全领域使用地图的思考

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100635

Radhika Singh , Grazia Pacillo , Alessandro Craparo , Martina Jaskolski , Victor Villa , Brenda Chepngetich , Victor Korir , Bina Desai , Peter Läderach

This article critically examines the development and use of maps in climate security research and practice. Drawing on cartographic theory and practical experience in spatial analysis, we analyze how maps used in the field of climate security render territories legible, facilitate communication across diverse stakeholders, and enable user engagement. While acknowledging maps’ utility in visualizing complex climate-conflict relationships, we also identify significant limitations: subjective data decisions often hidden behind maps’ authoritative appearance, reproduction of power dynamics that privilege certain knowledge forms, and abstraction processes that may oversimplify socio-political realities. Rather than merely critiquing maps, we advocate for more reflexive mapping practices that acknowledge limitations, incorporate diverse knowledge systems, and promote transparency in data sources and methodological choices. This approach can help mapmakers and users engage more responsibly with mapping in the field of climate security.

本文批判性地考察了地图在气候安全研究和实践中的发展和使用。根据地图学理论和空间分析的实践经验，我们分析了气候安全领域使用的地图如何使领土清晰可辨，促进不同利益相关者之间的沟通，并促进用户参与。在承认地图在可视化复杂气候冲突关系方面的效用的同时，我们也发现了重大的局限性：主观数据决策往往隐藏在地图权威的外观背后，权力动态的再现赋予某些知识形式特权，以及可能过度简化社会政治现实的抽象过程。我们不只是批评地图，而是提倡更多的反思性地图实践，承认局限性，整合不同的知识系统，并促进数据源和方法选择的透明度。这种方法可以帮助制图者和用户更负责任地参与气候安全领域的制图工作。

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引用次数: 0

Trends in climate extreme indices and implications for coffee farming in The Kafa Biosphere Reserve, southwest Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚西南部Kafa生物圈保护区气候极端指数趋势及其对咖啡种植的影响

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100637

Amare Amsalu , Weyessa Garedew , Girma Alemu Melka , Mehmet Ali Çelik , Dessalegn Obsi Gemeda

Smallholder coffee farming in tropical highlands is increasingly threatened by climate change. This study examines the trends and potential effects of climate extreme indices on coffee farming households in the Kafa Biosphere Reserve using daily rainfall and temperature data (1985–2023). Twelve extreme climate indices (six temperature and six rainfall indices) were computed from Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) records following the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) standards. Trend analyses were performed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Results indicate significant warming with annual maximum temperatures (TXx) rising at rates of 0.02–0.04°C yr⁻¹ across stations. The number of hot days (TX90p) increased significantly at all stations except Wushwush. Rainfall extremes show significant upward trends with annual rainfall increment up to 11.43 mm yr⁻¹ in Genji. Heavy rainfall days (RX1day) and rainfall intensity (SDII) increased notably across multiple stations, while consecutive wet days (CWD) decreased slightly in some stations. In general, many climates extreme indices trends seem to exceed the tolerance range of Coffea arabica, reducing yield and quality and raising pest and disease risks. These trends threaten both farmer livelihoods and Ethiopia’s position in the global specialty coffee market. Therefore, adaptation strategies such as shade management, heat-tolerant varieties, and soil and water conservation are essential to sustain smallholder livelihoods. Moreover, integrating local climate adaptation into agricultural and environmental policies is critical for strengthening the resilience of both coffee systems and biodiversity in the Kafa Biosphere Reserve.

热带高地的小农咖啡种植日益受到气候变化的威胁。利用1985-2023年的日降雨量和温度数据，研究了气候极端指数对Kafa生物圈保护区咖啡农户的趋势和潜在影响。根据气候变化探测和指数专家组（ETCCDI）的标准，从埃塞俄比亚气象研究所（EMI）的记录中计算了12个极端气候指数（6个温度指数和6个降雨指数）。趋势分析采用Mann-Kendall检验和Sen斜率估计。结果表明，各站点的年最高气温（TXx）以每年0.02-0.04°C的速率上升。除乌苏里湖站外，其余站点的高温日数（TX90p）均显著增加。源氏极端降水呈显著上升趋势，年降雨量增量可达11.43 mm yr - 1。多个站点的暴雨日数（RX1day）和降雨强度（SDII）显著增加，部分站点的连续湿日数（CWD）略有减少。总的来说，许多气候极端指数趋势似乎超出了阿拉比卡咖啡的耐受范围，降低了产量和质量，并增加了病虫害风险。这些趋势既威胁到农民的生计，也威胁到埃塞俄比亚在全球精品咖啡市场的地位。因此，诸如遮荫管理、耐热品种和水土保持等适应策略对于维持小农生计至关重要。此外，将当地气候适应纳入农业和环境政策对于加强Kafa生物圈保护区咖啡系统和生物多样性的复原力至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Adapting to climate change: emerging local institutions in Mozambique 适应气候变化：莫桑比克新兴的地方机构

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100634

Eunice Paula Armando Cavane , Jeffrey Uqueio , Almeida Alberto Sitoe

Unclear definition of institutional roles in climate change (CC) adaptation, across local, national, and regional levels, undermines the effectiveness of CC adaptation strategies. Addressing this governance gap is essential for translating global climate goals into actionable, context-specific adaptation measures. This study used mixed methods to explore local experience of climate change impacts, and explain the role of local institutions in adaptation to CC in the Pafúri region, located in the buffer zone of Limpopo National Park, and highly prone to drought and flooding. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 80 community leaders and eight representatives of local organizations; and a questionnaire was administered to 106 randomly selected households. The results indicate that droughts and floods cause food insecurity in the region, and this is exacerbated by crop raiding and livestock predation by wildlife. Training on CC and membership in producers’ associations are key factors (P < 0.05) of adaptation. Hence, institutional roles should prioritize establishment of producers’ associations and training programmes. Nevertheless, there is a risk of limited institutional access due to the overlap across institutions in service provision. Our findings highlight the complexity of “role clarification” at the local level, and the opportunity to strengthen local governance in developing resilient, and responsive CC adaptation measures. This implies that CC adaptation policies should support research and facilitation of social learning among local institutions, to jointly develop (or reform) mechanisms for refining institutional mandates for CC adaptation with a view to reducing overlapping roles and responsibilities and enhancing institutional access by local communities.

在地方、国家和区域层面上，机构在气候变化适应中的作用定义不明确，破坏了气候变化适应战略的有效性。解决这一治理差距对于将全球气候目标转化为可操作的、针对具体情况的适应措施至关重要。本研究采用混合方法探讨了气候变化影响的当地经验，并解释了位于林波波国家公园缓冲区的Pafúri地区当地机构在适应CC方面的作用，该地区高度容易发生干旱和洪水。与80名社区领袖和8名当地组织代表进行了半结构化访谈；随机抽取106个家庭进行问卷调查。结果表明，干旱和洪水造成该地区的粮食不安全，而野生动物袭击作物和捕食牲畜加剧了这种情况。CC培训和生产者协会会员资格是适应的关键因素（P < 0.05）。因此，机构的作用应优先考虑建立生产者协会和培训方案。然而，由于各机构在提供服务方面存在重叠，因此存在机构获得有限服务的风险。我们的研究结果强调了地方层面“角色澄清”的复杂性，以及在制定有弹性和响应性的气候变化适应措施方面加强地方治理的机会。这意味着气候变化适应政策应支持研究和促进地方机构之间的社会学习，共同制定（或改革）机制，以细化气候变化适应的机构授权，从而减少角色和责任的重叠，并增强地方社区的机构准入。

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引用次数: 0

A framework for generating catalogues of high-impact UNSEEN flood events 生成高影响未见过的洪水事件目录的框架

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100636

Elena Bianco , Paolo Davini , Giuseppe Zappa , Agostino Manzato , Antonio Giordani , Paolo Ruggieri

In recent years, Europe has experienced several episodes of catastrophic flooding that were unprecedented in the historical record. Estimating the impact of rare flood events is crucial for improving risk preparedness and emergency management, but this effort is hampered by the limited availability of historical data. We describe a modular framework for generating a catalogue of physically plausible high-impact flood events using ensemble prediction systems. The framework builds on existing methodologies for the analysis, validation, and pooling of seasonal reforecasts from the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) with the UNSEEN (UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles) approach. We employ the probabilistic impact model CLImate ADAptation (CLIMADA, Aznar-Siguan and Bresch (2019)) to identify a subset of events with severe impact potential. Synoptic patterns are reconstructed using the ECMWF SEASonal forecasts version 5 (SEAS5) reforecasts to form a catalogue of plausible extremes. We illustrate the case study of the Panaro watershed in Emilia-Romagna, Italy, a region affected by multiple record-breaking floods in recent years. The analysis illustrates the added value of combining ensemble pooling with impact modelling, to anticipate high-impact extreme events before they occur. Our framework can be leveraged to explore risk storylines for stress-testing, and to support adaptation decision making for disaster management.

近年来，欧洲经历了几次史无前例的灾难性洪水。估计罕见洪水事件的影响对于改善风险准备和应急管理至关重要，但这方面的努力受到历史数据有限的阻碍。我们描述了一个模块化框架，用于使用集合预测系统生成物理上合理的高影响洪水事件目录。该框架建立在现有方法的基础上，用于分析、验证和汇总来自欧洲洪水预警系统（EFAS）的季节性再预测，并使用UNSEEN（使用ENsembles进行前所未有的模拟极端）方法。我们采用概率影响模型气候适应（CLIMADA， Aznar-Siguan和Bresch(2019)）来确定具有严重影响潜力的事件子集。使用ECMWF第5版季节预报（SEAS5）重新预报重建天气模式，形成似是而非的极端天气目录。我们以意大利艾米利亚-罗马涅的Panaro流域为例进行了研究，该地区近年来遭受了多次破纪录的洪水影响。该分析说明了将集合池与影响建模相结合的附加价值，可以在高影响的极端事件发生之前进行预测。我们的框架可以用来探索压力测试的风险故事情节，并支持灾害管理的适应性决策。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of high-resolution downscaled CMIP6 projections for adaptation to climate extremes in Connecticut 高分辨率缩小尺度CMIP6预估对康涅狄格州极端气候适应的评估

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100633

Marc de Vos , Yaprak Onat , James O’Donnell

Climate information frequently lacks sufficient detail and accuracy to be actionable at local scales, posing a challenge to the prioritization of limited resources. Several downscaled CMIP6 projections were evaluated across the state of Connecticut to assess their suitability for local planning. Reliability was assessed via statistical comparison to observations from around the State, for overlapping periods from 1980 to 2024. At first order, reliability varied strongly by climate variable and weakly by factors such as downscaling technique and model. Daily minimum temperatures were reliably reproduced in both summer and winter. Daily maximum temperatures and daily average wind speeds returned mixed reliability. Daily average precipitation estimates were uniformly unreliable. Extreme value analysis applied to reliable projections from 2015 to 2100 indicates that by late-century, the 1-in-10-year hot-day warms by ≈ 3 °C under SSP2-4.5 (≈ 4 °C, SSP5-8.5). Warming is similar for the 1-in-100-year event. Consequently, the former 10-year event becomes annual, and the 100-year return period becomes 2.4–7 years. Decadal winter cold extremes warm by 6–11 °C by late century, and historical 1-in-10-year winter lows are unlikely to recur more than once per century. Changes to daily average wind speed extremes are muted, with inconsistent signs. Spatial structure of changes is modest, with slightly higher warming inland compared to the coast. These results suggest that temperature projections could reliably inform detailed local mitigation and adaptation. Extreme wind and precipitation projections, however, should be used to underpin specific local interventions only with due regard to their relative uncertainty, notwithstanding the likelihood of broad, regional increases.

气候信息往往缺乏足够的细节和准确性，无法在地方尺度上采取行动，这对有限资源的优先次序构成了挑战。在康涅狄格州对几个缩小的CMIP6预测进行了评估，以评估它们对当地规划的适用性。通过与1980年至2024年重叠期间全国各地的观测数据进行统计比较，评估了可靠性。在第一阶，可靠性受气候变量的影响较大，而受降尺度技术和模式等因素的影响较小。在夏季和冬季都可靠地再现了日最低气温。每日最高气温和每日平均风速的可靠性好坏参半。日平均降水估计一致不可靠。对2015 - 2100年可靠预估的极值分析表明，到本世纪末，在SSP2-4.5（≈4°C, SSP5-8.5）条件下，每10年1次的热日升温约3°C。这种百年一遇的变暖现象与此类似。因此，以前的10年事件变成了年事件，100年的回报周期变成了2.4-7年。到本世纪末，十年一次的冬季极端寒冷气温将升高6-11°C，而历史上每10年1次的冬季低点每世纪不太可能出现一次以上。极端日平均风速的变化不大，有不一致的迹象。变化的空间结构是温和的，与沿海相比，内陆的变暖程度略高。这些结果表明，温度预估可以可靠地提供详细的当地减缓和适应信息。然而，极端风和降水预测应该用来支持具体的地方干预措施，但要适当考虑到它们的相对不确定性，尽管有可能出现广泛的区域性增加。

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引用次数: 0

Growing population exposure to extreme floods in the Pearl River Basin in the future under global warming levels 在全球变暖的背景下，未来珠江流域越来越多的人口面临极端洪水的威胁

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100632

Wei Qi, Ruiting Huang, Yanpeng Cai, Qian Tan

Climate change and socioeconomic development are projected to change flood risk in China’s Pearl River Basin (PRB), yet the future pathways of this risk remain unclear. This study quantifies population exposure to extreme floods from 1985 to 2100 by integrating a basin-calibrated WEB-DHM-SG hydrological model with bias-corrected ISIMIP3b climate projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) population datasets. We assess exposure at global warming thresholds from 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C and decompose the contributions of climatic versus demographic drivers. Results indicate that population exposure peaks around mid-century at approximately 20 million people across all scenarios, then diverges: it declines under SSP126 (to ∼ 18 million), rises under SSP370 (to ∼ 22.5 million), and stabilizes under SSP585 (near ∼ 20 million). Sensitivity analysis reveals that each additional half-degree of warming increases the exposed population by ∼ 2.8 × 10⁵ (1.8 %) and raises the exposure share by ∼ 0.36 %. Climate change drives approximately 80 % of the basin-wide exposure increase, while local population dynamics—particularly in the Pearl River Delta—account for over one-fifth of the rise above 3 °C. The Dongjiang River and lower Xijiang River are identified as persistent hotspots, whereas sections of the Beijiang River exhibit relative resilience. These findings underscore the necessity of low-emission pathways and risk-informed adaptation strategies to mitigate future exposure.

预计气候变化和社会经济发展将改变中国珠江流域的洪水风险，但这种风险的未来路径尚不清楚。本研究通过整合流域校准的WEB-DHM-SG水文模型、偏差校正的ISIMIP3b气候预测和共享社会经济路径（SSP126、SSP370、SSP585）人口数据集，量化了1985年至2100年极端洪水的人口暴露程度。我们评估了在1.5°C至4.5°C的全球变暖阈值下的暴露情况，并分解了气候和人口驱动因素的贡献。结果表明，在所有情景下，人口暴露在本世纪中叶左右达到峰值，约为2000万人，然后出现分化：在SSP126下下降（至~ 1800万），在SSP370下上升（至~ 2250万），在SSP585下稳定（接近~ 2000万）。敏感性分析表明，温度每增加半度，暴露人口增加~ 2.8 × 105(1.8%)，暴露比例增加~ 0.36%。气候变化导致了大约80%的流域暴露增加，而当地人口动态-特别是珠江三角洲-占了超过五分之一的3°C以上的上升。东江和西江下游被确定为持续的热点，而北江部分地区则表现出相对的弹性。这些发现强调了采用低排放途径和风险知情的适应策略来减轻未来暴露的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

A climate indicator dashboard for communicating climate change in the Okanagan Valley of B.C. 在不列颠哥伦比亚省的奥肯那根山谷，一个气候指示仪表板，用于传达气候变化

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100631

Sandra Schira , Anna Warwick Sears , Jeremy Fyke

The Okanagan Valley in British Columbia, Canada, is increasingly vulnerable to climate change, experiencing hotter temperatures, longer and more intense wildfire seasons, extreme cold events, long-term droughts, and less predictable water supplies. Communities now often experience multiple climate-driven extreme events within the same year. Therefore, the Okanagan Basin Water Board (OBWB), a regional water resource management body, recognized the need to support regional decision-makers with effective tools to integrate local climate context into community-scale planning and communication. However, climate change is complex and regional decision makers are not trained climate experts. An effective decision support tool must therefore provide accurate and relevant information in a transparent and intuitive way. Motivated by this need, this study describes scientific methods and design principles used to calculate, visualize and present over 30 locally relevant indicators developed from publicly available weather and climate observation data on the publicly available OBWB Climate Indicators Dashboard. The process involved identifying useful climate impact indicators, understanding available data sets and their limitations, understanding and building trust with the intended audience, and iterating on data visualization design and dashboard wording for maximum impact. By presenting our methods and design principles, we highlight the OBWB Climate Indicators Dashboard as one among an emerging class of community-scale tools to communicate climate change. Based on initial positive feedback of the tool, we hope our case study is useful to others planning to create their own watershed-scale climate communication tools.

加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省的奥肯那根山谷越来越容易受到气候变化的影响，它经历着更高的温度、更长更强烈的野火季节、极端寒冷事件、长期干旱和更不可预测的供水。社区现在经常在同一年内经历多次气候驱动的极端事件。因此，奥肯纳根流域水务局（OBWB），一个区域水资源管理机构，认识到有必要为区域决策者提供有效的工具，将当地气候背景整合到社区规模的规划和沟通中。然而，气候变化是复杂的，区域决策者并不是受过训练的气候专家。因此，有效的决策支持工具必须以透明和直观的方式提供准确和相关的信息。受这一需求的推动，本研究描述了用于计算、可视化和呈现30多个当地相关指标的科学方法和设计原则，这些指标是从公开可用的OBWB气候指标仪表板上公开可用的天气和气候观测数据中开发出来的。该过程包括确定有用的气候影响指标，了解可用数据集及其局限性，了解目标受众并与之建立信任，以及迭代数据可视化设计和仪表板措辞以实现最大影响。通过介绍我们的方法和设计原则，我们强调OBWB气候指标仪表板是新兴的社区规模的气候变化沟通工具之一。基于该工具最初的积极反馈，我们希望我们的案例研究对其他计划创建自己的流域尺度气候通信工具的人有用。

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引用次数: 0

Building the scientific basis for the adaptation strategy of an Alpine region: The ‘State of the climate in Trentino’ report 建立高山地区适应战略的科学基础：“特伦蒂诺气候状况”报告

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100629

Anna Napoli , Michael Matiu , Lavinia Laiti , Roberto Barbiero , David Tombolato , Silvia Scarian Monsorno , Alberto Bellin , Dino Zardi , Bruno Majone

Many regional administrations are currently developing tailored adaptation strategies, based on the unique characteristics of their territories, which includes local climate patterns and, more importantly, environmental and socioeconomic factors. Yet, exploiting this wealth of information to design effective climate strategies remains a challenge. This study outlines the approach used to establish the basis for the climate strategy in the Autonomous Province of Trento, a mountainous region in northern Italy and part of the European Alps. The approach adopted by the regional government emphasizes the need for a multi-level, multi-stakeholder approach to shape the development of a regional adaptation strategy. Here, we present three major steps of this process, highlighting the collaborative effort between diverse entities: (1) Compilation of an up-to-date scientific review of the existing knowledge about climate change impacts in the region, (2) Creation of reference climate scenarios, and (3) Dissemination of a summary of the report to the general public. The literature review revealed large heterogeneity across socioeconomic sectors in the scientific literature focusing on the impacts of climate change. This disparity was reflected in the informative report, which simplified and summarized the technical information without sacrificing scientific accuracy. The creation of climate scenarios had to balance multiple aspects, including mountain topography, data availability, and needs from stakeholders, by using a layered approach combining spatially aggregated results, statistical downscaling, and high-resolution convection-permitting models.

许多区域行政当局目前正在根据其领土的独特特征制定量身定制的适应战略，其中包括当地气候模式，更重要的是，环境和社会经济因素。然而，利用这些丰富的信息来设计有效的气候战略仍然是一个挑战。这项研究概述了在特伦托自治省建立气候战略基础的方法，特伦托自治省是意大利北部的一个山区，也是欧洲阿尔卑斯山的一部分。该地区政府采用的方法强调需要采用多层次、多方利益相关者的方法来制定区域适应战略。在此，我们提出了这一过程的三个主要步骤，强调了不同实体之间的合作努力：(1)编写有关该地区气候变化影响的最新科学综述；(2)创建参考气候情景；(3)向公众传播报告摘要。文献综述显示，在关注气候变化影响的科学文献中，社会经济部门之间存在很大的异质性。这种差异反映在翔实的报告中，该报告在不牺牲科学准确性的情况下简化和总结了技术信息。气候情景的创建必须平衡多个方面，包括山地地形、数据可用性和利益相关者的需求，通过使用分层方法结合空间汇总结果、统计降尺度和高分辨率对流允许模型。

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引用次数: 0

Projected changes in European hail damage risk to buildings: Insights from 3 °C Pseudo Global Warming simulations with a km-scale regional climate model 欧洲冰雹破坏建筑物风险的预估变化：基于km尺度区域气候模式的3°C伪全球变暖模拟的见解

IF 4.5 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100630

Timo Schmid, Valentin Gebhart, David N. Bresch

Severe hailstorms are among the most destructive weather phenomena in Europe, with the recent hail seasons of 2022 and 2023 both causing record losses above 5 billion euros. This highlights the importance of assessing hail risk in a warming climate. We approach this question by leveraging 11-year convection-resolving climate simulations using the COSMO model with the hail growth module HAILCAST. Comparing a 3 °C warming scenario to present-day simulations, we observe a generally increasing trend in expected hail damage to buildings, with a 42% increase over the calibration region in Switzerland and pronounced spatial variability across Europe. Assuming a building vulnerability as calibrated over Switzerland, 24 of 28 countries show an increasing potential for hail damage, despite only 11 with increasing overall hail frequency. Given the concentration of hail damages into few events with limited spatial extent, we observe a large variability in modelled hail damage based on sampling uncertainty within the 11-year simulations, which locally mostly exceeds the change signal. Larger spatial aggregation increases the confidence in the climate change signal, with the overall damage potential over Europe increasing by 25%–42% in the 3 °C warming scenario. On top of the change signal, we provide a spatially resampled hail event set for explicit risk assessments and a new technique to calibrate impact functions for climate simulations to observed data.

严重的冰雹是欧洲最具破坏性的天气现象之一，最近的2022年和2023年的冰雹季节都造成了超过50亿欧元的创纪录损失。这突出了在气候变暖的情况下评估冰雹风险的重要性。我们通过利用COSMO模式和冰雹增长模块HAILCAST进行11年对流解析气候模拟来解决这个问题。将3°C变暖情景与目前的模拟进行比较，我们观察到预期冰雹对建筑物造成的破坏总体呈增加趋势，在瑞士的校准区域增加42%，整个欧洲的空间变异性明显。假设建筑物的脆弱性以瑞士为基准，28个国家中有24个国家显示出冰雹破坏的可能性增加，尽管只有11个国家的冰雹总体频率增加。考虑到冰雹灾害集中在有限空间范围内的几个事件中，我们观察到11年模拟中基于采样不确定性的冰雹灾害模型存在很大的变化，局部变化大多超过了变化信号。更大的空间聚集增加了对气候变化信号的信度，在3°C变暖情景下，欧洲的总体破坏潜力增加了25%-42%。在变化信号的基础上，我们提供了一个空间重采样的冰雹事件集，用于明确的风险评估，并提供了一种新的技术来校准气候模拟对观测数据的影响函数。

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