Climate Services最新文献

Assessing the local context for implementing a climate based early warning system for dengue fever outbreaks in Ecuador

IF 4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100571

Gabrielle M.A. Cepella , Mercy J. Borbor-Cordova , Marianne van Elteren , Desislava Petrova

Dengue fever is hyper-endemic in Ecuador and has persistently challenged its public health system. Previously, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its impact on local temperature and precipitation in coastal Ecuador was linked to dengue outbreaks. A framework for early epidemics prediction based on long-lead ENSO and local climate forecasts was developed and tested for El Oro province. It could provide timely information to policy makers, but it is not being systematically utilized. In this study we assess barriers and pathways for a climate-driven dengue EWS implementation in Ecuador. Initially, 30 stakeholders from the climate and health sector were approached, and 11 semi-structured interviews were conducted and analyzed using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research to identify needs and priorities. Although all topics were covered during each interview, the structure and sequence of the questions varied according to the stakeholder background. In the exploratory phase specific codes were assigned to data fragments, and themes that reached the highest level of saturation were analyzed. Our results point to a limited compatibility between the current outbreak management and a climate-driven dengue EWS. To enhance compatibility, all participants indicated that EWS implementation should be led by the Ministry of Health or another established inter-institutional management structure invested with authority and knowledge about the needs and aims. This would ensure the participation of stakeholders with diverse backgrounds, and build trust in the EWS. Promoting data sharing, working on city or province level and improving local infrastructure to prevent flooding could also guarantee its effectiveness.

{"title":"Assessing the local context for implementing a climate based early warning system for dengue fever outbreaks in Ecuador","authors":"Gabrielle M.A. Cepella , Mercy J. Borbor-Cordova , Marianne van Elteren , Desislava Petrova","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100571","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100571","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Dengue fever is hyper-endemic in Ecuador and has persistently challenged its public health system. Previously, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its impact on local temperature and precipitation in coastal Ecuador was linked to dengue outbreaks. A framework for early epidemics prediction based on long-lead ENSO and local climate forecasts was developed and tested for El Oro province. It could provide timely information to policy makers, but it is not being systematically utilized. In this study we assess barriers and pathways for a climate-driven dengue EWS implementation in Ecuador. Initially, 30 stakeholders from the climate and health sector were approached, and 11 semi-structured interviews were conducted and analyzed using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research to identify needs and priorities. Although all topics were covered during each interview, the structure and sequence of the questions varied according to the stakeholder background. In the exploratory phase specific codes were assigned to data fragments, and themes that reached the highest level of saturation were analyzed. Our results point to a limited compatibility between the current outbreak management and a climate-driven dengue EWS. To enhance compatibility, all participants indicated that EWS implementation should be led by the Ministry of Health or another established inter-institutional management structure invested with authority and knowledge about the needs and aims. This would ensure the participation of stakeholders with diverse backgrounds, and build trust in the EWS. Promoting data sharing, working on city or province level and improving local infrastructure to prevent flooding could also guarantee its effectiveness.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100571"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143864755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reflections on the large-scale application of a community resilience measurement framework across the globe

IF 4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100562

Adriana Keating , Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler , Reinhard Mechler , Finn Laurien , Naomi Rubenstein , Teresa Deubelli , Stefan Velev , Michael Szoenyi , David Nash

This paper reflects on learnings and analysis from an extensively globally applied, standardized community disaster resilience measurement framework that utilises bottom-up (locally collected) data. These lessons, from over a decade of on-the-ground work and analysis, are based on empirical evidence and have salience for scholars, policy-makers and practitioners aiming to strengthen community disaster resilience and apply bottom-up community disaster resilience measurement approaches. The Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities approach was co-designed and implemented by the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance: a transdisciplinary science-policy-practice collaboration including scientists, practitioners and private business. It has been applied globally in approximately 400 communities worldwide, demonstrating the real-world impact of scalable community disaster resilience measurement initiatives. Findings provide evidence for the impacts and good practices of applying bottom-up community disaster resilience measurement approaches. Quantitative analysis on this unique dataset provides new entry points for research on typologies and dynamics of resilience, based on empirical evidence on human, social, physical, natural and financial dimensions. Based on our analysis, we find that the use of bottom-up, multidimensional, standardized community disaster resilience measurement approaches is a worthwhile endeavour to support community disaster resilience strengthening.

{"title":"Reflections on the large-scale application of a community resilience measurement framework across the globe","authors":"Adriana Keating , Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler , Reinhard Mechler , Finn Laurien , Naomi Rubenstein , Teresa Deubelli , Stefan Velev , Michael Szoenyi , David Nash","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100562","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100562","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper reflects on learnings and analysis from an extensively globally applied, standardized community disaster resilience measurement framework that utilises bottom-up (locally collected) data. These lessons, from over a decade of on-the-ground work and analysis, are based on empirical evidence and have salience for scholars, policy-makers and practitioners aiming to strengthen community disaster resilience and apply bottom-up community disaster resilience measurement approaches. The Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities approach was co-designed and implemented by the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance: a transdisciplinary science-policy-practice collaboration including scientists, practitioners and private business. It has been applied globally in approximately 400 communities worldwide, demonstrating the real-world impact of scalable community disaster resilience measurement initiatives. Findings provide evidence for the impacts and good practices of applying bottom-up community disaster resilience measurement approaches. Quantitative analysis on this unique dataset provides new entry points for research on typologies and dynamics of resilience, based on empirical evidence on human, social, physical, natural and financial dimensions. Based on our analysis, we find that the use of bottom-up, multidimensional, standardized community disaster resilience measurement approaches is a worthwhile endeavour to support community disaster resilience strengthening.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100562"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143820346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Towards a holistic climate service: Addressing all four climate risk determinants

IF 4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100558

Jan Ketil Rød , Carlo Aall , Torbjørn Selseng

This article presents a newly developed climate service designed to monitor climate risk in Norwegian municipalities using a variety of indicators. The service is accessible through a publicly available multimedia platform. With the expected increase in extreme weather events, many climate services have emerged focusing solely on future climate conditions, thus addressing only the hazard component of climate risk. As a result, most current local climate services evaluate how future climate will impact today’s society. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), however, recently developed a risk framework consisting of four determinants: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and response. Following this framework, our climate service incorporates all four risk determinants. It presents geographically and temporally varying indicators expressing current, near-future, and far-future projections or scenarios on hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, and maps these against current response levels. This approach enables us to identify which municipalities in Norway are most at risk and currently have the least adequate responses.

{"title":"Towards a holistic climate service: Addressing all four climate risk determinants","authors":"Jan Ketil Rød , Carlo Aall , Torbjørn Selseng","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100558","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100558","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article presents a newly developed climate service designed to monitor climate risk in Norwegian municipalities using a variety of indicators. The service is accessible through a publicly available multimedia platform. With the expected increase in extreme weather events, many climate services have emerged focusing solely on future climate conditions, thus addressing only the hazard component of climate risk. As a result, most current local climate services evaluate how future climate will impact today’s society. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), however, recently developed a risk framework consisting of four determinants: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and response. Following this framework, our climate service incorporates all four risk determinants. It presents geographically and temporally varying indicators expressing current, near-future, and far-future projections or scenarios on hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, and maps these against current response levels. This approach enables us to identify which municipalities in Norway are most at risk and currently have the least adequate responses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100558"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143748668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate change perceptions and adaptation responses among smallholder farmers across three locations in Megech Watershed, Ethiopia

IF 4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100566

Achenafi Teklay , Asrat Ayalew , Amanuel Abate , Masresha Ashenafi , Ashenafi Tadesse Marye , Assefa Tilahun , Haimanote K. Bayabil , Alemayehu Kassa , Hailu Birara , Kassaye Gurebiyaw , Kibruyesfa Sisay

Climate change significantly affects smallholder farmers in Ethiopia who rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Farmers’ perceptions of climate change can modify their adaptation response decisions. However, there is limited knowledge about the key constraints that hinder the adoption of climate change measures in the Megech watershed. This research aimed to assess the smallholder farmers’ perception regarding climate change and the factors influencing their decision to adopt adaptation measures. This research employed a multi-stage sampling procedure to select a sample of 385 smallholder farmer households. Structured and semi-structured questionnaires were designed to conduct a household survey and focus group discussion for data purposes. Furthermore, this study covered a comparison between the farmers’ perspectives on climate change and the observed climate trends. The data analysis was done by descriptive statistics and logistic regression equation. Results showed that the primary sources for most farmers to get information about climate change were extension workers, radio broadcasts, and religious institutions. The majority of farmers believed that climate change was attributed to deforestation, population growth, and industrialization. Almost all farmers were cognizant of the temperature rise, aligning with the observed trend. However, the perception of the farmers on declining rainfall aligns only with recent rainfall trends. Farmers in the downstream had more experience in adopting climate change resilience strategies than farmers in the mid and upstream. On average, 87% of the farmers applied adaptation measures, including intensive inputs (fertilizers), planting date changes, and improved varieties. The farmers’ adoption of adaptation strategies was hampered by challenges such as limited access to credit and high costs of agricultural inputs. The regression analysis revealed that age, education, extension and credit access, and livestock size significantly affected the decision to adopt adaptation measures. These findings may support policymakers in formulating location-based adaptation measures to enhance resilience to climate change.

{"title":"Climate change perceptions and adaptation responses among smallholder farmers across three locations in Megech Watershed, Ethiopia","authors":"Achenafi Teklay , Asrat Ayalew , Amanuel Abate , Masresha Ashenafi , Ashenafi Tadesse Marye , Assefa Tilahun , Haimanote K. Bayabil , Alemayehu Kassa , Hailu Birara , Kassaye Gurebiyaw , Kibruyesfa Sisay","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100566","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100566","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change significantly affects smallholder farmers in Ethiopia who rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Farmers’ perceptions of climate change can modify their adaptation response decisions. However, there is limited knowledge about the key constraints that hinder the adoption of climate change measures in the Megech watershed. This research aimed to assess the smallholder farmers’ perception regarding climate change and the factors influencing their decision to adopt adaptation measures. This research employed a multi-stage sampling procedure to select a sample of 385 smallholder farmer households. Structured and semi-structured questionnaires were designed to conduct a household survey and focus group discussion for data purposes. Furthermore, this study covered a comparison between the farmers’ perspectives on climate change and the observed climate trends. The data analysis was done by descriptive statistics and logistic regression equation. Results showed that the primary sources for most farmers to get information about climate change were extension workers, radio broadcasts, and religious institutions. The majority of farmers believed that climate change was attributed to deforestation, population growth, and industrialization. Almost all farmers were cognizant of the temperature rise, aligning with the observed trend. However, the perception of the farmers on declining rainfall aligns only with recent rainfall trends. Farmers in the downstream had more experience in adopting climate change resilience strategies than farmers in the mid and upstream. On average, 87% of the farmers applied adaptation measures, including intensive inputs (fertilizers), planting date changes, and improved varieties. The farmers’ adoption of adaptation strategies was hampered by challenges such as limited access to credit and high costs of agricultural inputs. The regression analysis revealed that age, education, extension and credit access, and livestock size significantly affected the decision to adopt adaptation measures. These findings may support policymakers in formulating location-based adaptation measures to enhance resilience to climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100566"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143815123","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatio-temporal dynamics of urban heat island using Google Earth Engine: Assessment and prediction—A case study of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

IF 4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100560

Bishal Khatri, Bipin Kharel, Pragati Dhakal, Samrat Acharya, Ujjwol Thapa

This study examines UHI dynamics and impacts in the rapidly urbanizing Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, using remote sensing and predictive modeling. The primary goals are to evaluate UHI trends and explore how urbanization influences temperature and climate change. To achieve these objectives, the research investigates the relationship between spectral characteristics, Land Use Land Cover (LULC), and UHI, utilizing high-resolution data from MODIS and Landsat satellites to analyze land surface temperature (LST) and land use changes over recent decades. The study employs Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) modeling to predict future UHI dynamics, taking into account climatic variability, land use changes, and population growth. Findings reveal significant increases in LST and UHI intensity due to the expansion of impermeable surfaces and loss of vegetative cover. Predictions for 2030 indicate higher LSTs, with winter temperatures ranging from 9.34 °C to 30.12 °C and summer temperatures from 19.74 °C to 42.32 °C, showing an increase compared to 2020. Additionally, the UHI effect is predicted to intensify due to expanding built-up areas, with greater seasonal variation observed in summer. The results suggest that without effective mitigation, UHI will continue to worsen, exacerbating climate-related issues. Insights into the relationship between spectral parameters, LULC, and UHI can guide strategies to mitigate UHI effects, promote sustainable urban growth, and improve urban resilience. Integrating remote sensing technologies with predictive modeling is crucial for addressing urbanization and climate change challenges.

{"title":"Spatio-temporal dynamics of urban heat island using Google Earth Engine: Assessment and prediction—A case study of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal","authors":"Bishal Khatri, Bipin Kharel, Pragati Dhakal, Samrat Acharya, Ujjwol Thapa","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100560","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100560","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines UHI dynamics and impacts in the rapidly urbanizing Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, using remote sensing and predictive modeling. The primary goals are to evaluate UHI trends and explore how urbanization influences temperature and climate change. To achieve these objectives, the research investigates the relationship between spectral characteristics, Land Use Land Cover (LULC), and UHI, utilizing high-resolution data from MODIS and Landsat satellites to analyze land surface temperature (LST) and land use changes over recent decades. The study employs Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) modeling to predict future UHI dynamics, taking into account climatic variability, land use changes, and population growth. Findings reveal significant increases in LST and UHI intensity due to the expansion of impermeable surfaces and loss of vegetative cover. Predictions for 2030 indicate higher LSTs, with winter temperatures ranging from 9.34 °C to 30.12 °C and summer temperatures from 19.74 °C to 42.32 °C, showing an increase compared to 2020. Additionally, the UHI effect is predicted to intensify due to expanding built-up areas, with greater seasonal variation observed in summer. The results suggest that without effective mitigation, UHI will continue to worsen, exacerbating climate-related issues. Insights into the relationship between spectral parameters, LULC, and UHI can guide strategies to mitigate UHI effects, promote sustainable urban growth, and improve urban resilience. Integrating remote sensing technologies with predictive modeling is crucial for addressing urbanization and climate change challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100560"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143759743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Towards CS4L&D: Advancing climate services for loss and damage

IF 4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100563

Murray Scown , Haomiao Du , Guy Jackson , Salvatore Paolo De Rosa , Emily Boyd

Losses and damages from climate change are not just a future risk but already a present reality, and “Loss and Damage” (L&D) as a policy domain has been formalised under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), alongside mitigation and adaptation. While climate services currently provide strong support for adaptation and disaster recovery, here we propose that an expanded set of climate services for L&D (CS4L&D) should be developed to help address climate justice implications of realised losses and damages. CS4L&D could pragmatically connect research on climate hazards and lived experiences of impacts with global political negotiations on L&D and transformative climate action and justice. Existing disaster databases and extreme event attribution services could be enhanced with knowledge relevant for L&D, including information on exposure, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, financial support, and governance. Existing disaster forensics tools could be enriched with knowledge on L&D in the UNFCCC context, including the political and legal implications of evidence these tools provide. A broadening from risk management to climate justice also awakens new possibilities for climate services. An expansion of climate services for L&D would contribute to climate justice by substantiating the L&D mechanism under Article 8 of the Paris Agreement and the claims for compensating L&D in climate litigation and activism. Novel users (and co-producers) of climate services for L&D might be legal professionals, journalists, affected communities, and activists, in addition to the traditional users such as planners, consultants, and decision-makers. We encourage the L&D and climate services communities to begin to co-develop with stakeholders such climate services for L&D.

{"title":"Towards CS4L&D: Advancing climate services for loss and damage","authors":"Murray Scown , Haomiao Du , Guy Jackson , Salvatore Paolo De Rosa , Emily Boyd","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Losses and damages from climate change are not just a future risk but already a present reality, and “Loss and Damage” (L&D) as a policy domain has been formalised under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), alongside mitigation and adaptation. While climate services currently provide strong support for adaptation and disaster recovery, here we propose that an expanded set of climate services for L&D (CS4L&D) should be developed to help address climate justice implications of realised losses and damages. CS4L&D could pragmatically connect research on climate hazards and lived experiences of impacts with global political negotiations on L&D and transformative climate action and justice. Existing disaster databases and extreme event attribution services could be enhanced with knowledge relevant for L&D, including information on exposure, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, financial support, and governance. Existing disaster forensics tools could be enriched with knowledge on L&D in the UNFCCC context, including the political and legal implications of evidence these tools provide. A broadening from risk management to climate justice also awakens new possibilities for climate services. An expansion of climate services for L&D would contribute to climate justice by substantiating the L&D mechanism under Article 8 of the Paris Agreement and the claims for compensating L&D in climate litigation and activism. Novel users (and co-producers) of climate services for L&D might be legal professionals, journalists, affected communities, and activists, in addition to the traditional users such as planners, consultants, and decision-makers. We encourage the L&D and climate services communities to begin to co-develop with stakeholders such climate services for L&D.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100563"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143808252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The nexus between migration and environmental degradation based on fundamental climate variables and extreme climate indices for the MENA domain

IF 4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100564

Nazan An , Zekican Demiralay , Meltem Ucal , M. Levent Kurnaz

Environmental migration has recently become primary source of population growth and environmental degradation from extreme events has created the environmental refugee concept with a variety of manners affecting lives. For understanding of the environmental degradation impact on migration, a hybrid approach (regional climate modelling, RegCM4.4 and statistical modelling, ordered logit) has been applied for 65 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) for the periods of 2021–2050 and 2051–2080. It is aimed to examine how climate change affect migration by applying fundamental climate variables (i.e., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation) and the control variables (i.e., the hot days, the tropical nights, and the dry days) in the MENA. While key findings indicate an increase in the minimum temperatures (T_min) in future in all populous cities, the water amount may further decrease in the mid-latitude and Mediterranean with temperate climates due to precipitation change. While it may pose a high risk in the regions having experienced extreme temperatures e.g., tropical nights (T_n), it may further adversely affect ones not having experienced extremes. Considering statistically significant positive relationship between T_min, and net migration rate (N_MIG), and negative relationship between precipitation and N_MIG, it may encourage migration to cooler regions.

{"title":"The nexus between migration and environmental degradation based on fundamental climate variables and extreme climate indices for the MENA domain","authors":"Nazan An , Zekican Demiralay , Meltem Ucal , M. Levent Kurnaz","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Environmental migration has recently become primary source of population growth and environmental degradation from extreme events has created the environmental refugee concept with a variety of manners affecting lives. For understanding of the environmental degradation impact on migration, a hybrid approach <em>(regional climate modelling, RegCM4.4</em> and <em>statistical modelling, ordered logit) has been applied for</em> 65 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) for the periods of 2021–2050 and 2051–2080. It is aimed to examine how climate change affect migration by applying fundamental climate variables (i.e., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation) and the control variables (i.e., the hot days, the tropical nights, and the dry days) in the MENA. While key findings indicate an increase in the minimum temperatures <strong>(T<sub>min</sub>)</strong> in future in all populous cities, the water amount may further decrease in the mid-latitude and Mediterranean with temperate climates due to precipitation change. While it may pose a high risk in the regions having experienced extreme temperatures e.g., tropical nights (<strong>T<sub>n</sub></strong>), it may further adversely affect ones not having experienced extremes. Considering statistically significant positive relationship between <strong>T<sub>min,</sub></strong> and net migration rate (<strong>N<sub>MIG</sub>),</strong> and negative relationship between precipitation and <strong>N<sub>MIG</sub>,</strong> it may encourage migration to cooler regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100564"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Effect of climate change and variability-induced shocks and stresses on rural household livelihoods and their adaptation practices in West Arsi Zone, South-Central Ethiopia

IF 4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100561

Abebe Engda , Fantaw Yimer , Muluken Mekuyie , Menfese Tadesse

This study aimed to evaluate the effects of climatic trends and variability on main livelihood practices (crop production), as well as farmers’ perceptions and adaptation to local climate change in West Arsi zone. The data gathered from 354 of the 364 sample households who took part in the survey in six Kebeles utilizing a standardized questionnaire served as the basis for this investigation. Ten surveys with incomplete responses were removed from the data analysis after the responses were reviewed for completeness across all questionnaire sections. Key informant interviews, focus groups, meteorological data from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, crop and aid beneficiary data from the West Arsi zone Bureau of Agriculture and Office for Disaster Risk Management were also used in the study. The Mann–Kendall statistical test was used to analyze climate trends. The descriptive and multivariate statistical models in SPSS v.25 and Ms Excel soft wares were used to analyze data. The results indicated significant increase in aggregated mean annual temperature (p < 0.001) by 0.045 °C per year and annual rainfall showed significant decrease (p < 0.1) by 3.7 mm per year in the study area, over the period 1983 to 2019. The results indicates annual rainfall was a significant predictor of crop production (t = 15.24, p < 0.05), and revealed a significant differences in household adaptation practices (p < 0.001) between agro ecological zones. The study also revealed that household demographic and socio-economic factors significantly influenced their adaptation choices, highlighting the need for further research on interventions that enhance local adaptation strategies.

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引用次数: 0

Adaptation to climate change by the indigenous farmers in the western Tarai of Nepal

IF 4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100559

Buddhi R. Chaudhary , Greg Acciaioli , William Erskine , Luni Piya , Niraj Prakash Joshi

Challenges posed by climate change are more severe for indigenous farmers in developing countries. For them, their rich socio-culture constructs their livelihood capitals, which also indicate their adaptive capacity (AC). Hence, understanding their adaptation strategies to climate change and their adoption in relation to AC is urgently needed. All 229 Tharu households residing in two rural villages in the Western Tarai of Nepal were surveyed using the semi-structured questionnaire complemented by two focused group discussions and 10 key informant interviews with leading farmers and concerned stakeholders. The questionnaire included three sections, namely; agriculture, climate change, and livelihoods along with the household characteristics. We found that AC varies with space and gender. The geographical location of the village and households with access to service and market have better AC. Women had lower AC, particularly human capital and natural capital of livelihoods. The Tharu consider multiple adaptation strategies to deal with the farming in changed climatic contexts. Adopting modern agriculture technology in major cereal crops and continuing landraces with traditional practices are prominent adaptation strategies. This signifies the importance of indigenous knowledge and practice in climate change adaptation for the Tharu. Consequently, they are also contributing to the conservation of valuable landraces. Landholding, access to water pumps, extension services, and weather information are the significantly important factors associated with the adoption of adaptation strategies by the Tharu. Thus, the interventions must be designed to increase access to extension services, improve farmers’ access to water pumps, and secure tenurial arrangements to adopt climate change adaptation measures effectively.

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引用次数: 0

Ambition setting through climate services to drive climate resilient development

IF 4 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Services

Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100556

Gaby S. Langendijk , Eva Boon , Hasse Goosen , Ad Jeuken , Saioa Zorita Castresana , Nieves Pena Cerezo , Jaroslav Mysiak , Leon Kapetas

Climate change adaptation efforts need to accelerate and scale-up to deal with increasing climate change impacts worldwide in order to safeguard the resilience of societies. Currently adaptation action is merely following a risk-based planning approach, going from identifying a climate related risk to directly finding solutions. This has resulted into largely fragmented, local, and incremental adaptation actions up to present. There is a need for transformational change, and combining adaptation with other policy objectives, to speed up action towards climate resilient development. However, this integration alone may not be sufficient to address the systemic transformation required to tackle the root causes of existing challenges and underlaying vulnerabilities. A broader perspective is needed to envision the “future we want” and defining key goals and actions to achieve these futures. We believe that such an ambition setting process is critical, and commonly missing in adaptation planning. With ambition setting we mean a policy process that entails developing visions coupled with identifying goals and actions that work towards these visions. Ambition setting builds upon understanding the desired transformations in the system and the root cause of present challenges, including risks and vulnerabilities. To put ambition setting into practice climate services and tools can be employed. We identify key criteria supporting the selection of such tools and provide four examples showcasing how the tools support ambition setting. A tradition of ambition setting should be fostered, as well as tools and services should be further developed in parallel to accelerate transformations towards climate resilient development.

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引用次数: 0