{"title":"数字经济的发展能否限制非正规经济的规模?基于中国省级面板数据的非线性分析","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.eap.2024.07.022","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper investigates whether and how digital economy (especially digital platforms and digital finance) restrains the informal economic activities in China measured by the MIMIC (multiple indicators multiple causes) model. Using Chinese provincial panel data from 1995 to 2020, we find that the average size of China's provincial informal economy displays a five-stage fluctuation, ranging from 13.63 % to 17.53 %. More importantly, we uncover a robust “inverted U-shaped” nonlinear relationship between the digital platform development and the informal economy, with a turning point of 0.4189. Initially, the development of digital platforms increases informal economic activities by disrupting traditional sectors, causing new types of tax evasion, challenging regulators and raising digital crime. However, beyond a certain threshold, digital platforms can overcome these problems through more job creations and improved regulation. Meanwhile, the digital financial development is proved to have a negative impact on the informal economy because it can offer much more advantages in addressing informality such as making payments transparent, easing credit constraints, raising total income, helping governments reach people and businesses. Our study provides convincing evidence and valuable advice for policymakers when developing digital economy to curb the informal economy.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54200,"journal":{"name":"Economic Analysis and Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Can the digital economy development limit the size of the informal economy? A nonlinear analysis based on China's provincial panel data\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.eap.2024.07.022\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>This paper investigates whether and how digital economy (especially digital platforms and digital finance) restrains the informal economic activities in China measured by the MIMIC (multiple indicators multiple causes) model. Using Chinese provincial panel data from 1995 to 2020, we find that the average size of China's provincial informal economy displays a five-stage fluctuation, ranging from 13.63 % to 17.53 %. More importantly, we uncover a robust “inverted U-shaped” nonlinear relationship between the digital platform development and the informal economy, with a turning point of 0.4189. Initially, the development of digital platforms increases informal economic activities by disrupting traditional sectors, causing new types of tax evasion, challenging regulators and raising digital crime. However, beyond a certain threshold, digital platforms can overcome these problems through more job creations and improved regulation. Meanwhile, the digital financial development is proved to have a negative impact on the informal economy because it can offer much more advantages in addressing informality such as making payments transparent, easing credit constraints, raising total income, helping governments reach people and businesses. Our study provides convincing evidence and valuable advice for policymakers when developing digital economy to curb the informal economy.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":54200,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Economic Analysis and Policy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Economic Analysis and Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592624001899\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economic Analysis and Policy","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592624001899","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Can the digital economy development limit the size of the informal economy? A nonlinear analysis based on China's provincial panel data
This paper investigates whether and how digital economy (especially digital platforms and digital finance) restrains the informal economic activities in China measured by the MIMIC (multiple indicators multiple causes) model. Using Chinese provincial panel data from 1995 to 2020, we find that the average size of China's provincial informal economy displays a five-stage fluctuation, ranging from 13.63 % to 17.53 %. More importantly, we uncover a robust “inverted U-shaped” nonlinear relationship between the digital platform development and the informal economy, with a turning point of 0.4189. Initially, the development of digital platforms increases informal economic activities by disrupting traditional sectors, causing new types of tax evasion, challenging regulators and raising digital crime. However, beyond a certain threshold, digital platforms can overcome these problems through more job creations and improved regulation. Meanwhile, the digital financial development is proved to have a negative impact on the informal economy because it can offer much more advantages in addressing informality such as making payments transparent, easing credit constraints, raising total income, helping governments reach people and businesses. Our study provides convincing evidence and valuable advice for policymakers when developing digital economy to curb the informal economy.
期刊介绍:
Economic Analysis and Policy (established 1970) publishes articles from all branches of economics with a particular focus on research, theoretical and applied, which has strong policy relevance. The journal also publishes survey articles and empirical replications on key policy issues. Authors are expected to highlight the main insights in a non-technical introduction and in the conclusion.