在不断变化的气候和社会经济条件下量化饮用水生产过程中的微生物风险

IF 3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI:10.1016/j.mran.2024.100321
M․M․ Majedul Islam
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引用次数: 0

摘要

饮用含有病原微生物的饮用水可能会带来水传播疾病的严重健康风险。量化此类风险对于指导干预措施和政策决策至关重要。微生物定量风险评估(QMRA)是一种非常有用的方法,可用于估算公众受水源中致病微生物感染的风险。对饮用水生产过程的定量微生物风险评估在全球范围内都很有限,迄今为止,孟加拉国还没有开展过此类定量微生物风险评估研究。此外,气候和社会经济的变化可能会影响水传播的病原体和相关的健康风险,但具体影响程度尚不清楚,因为迄今为止,全世界还没有考虑到气候和社会经济因素综合影响的全面 QMRA。在本研究中,瑞典的 QMRA 工具被用作案例研究,用于评估孟加拉国达卡饮用水生产过程中的公共健康风险。首先对当前风险进行量化,然后结合气候和社会经济因素对未来潜在风险进行预测。结果显示,在当前(2020 年代)的基线条件下,沙门氏菌、诺如病毒和贾第鞭毛虫这三种病原体的年感染风险均低于每人每年 10-4 感染的可接受风险阈值(由美国环保局的几位科学家提出)。然而,在发生下水道溢流和农业径流等极端事件后,诺如病毒违反了可接受的风险阈值,沙门氏菌和贾第鞭毛虫的风险处于边缘状态。所选的可持续未来方案在年度感染风险方面有所改善,而与当前方案相比,失控方案导致近期和远期的感染风险都大大增加。敏感性分析结果表明,与气候变化相比,社会经济因素(如人口、牲畜和废水中病原体的去除)对感染风险的影响更大。这项研究可以帮助政策制定者和水资源管理者确定干预措施,减轻疾病对人口造成的负担。该工具可用于评估世界上其他具有类似特征的地区与饮用水生产过程相关的健康风险。
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Quantifying microbial risk from drinking water production process under changing climate and socio-economic conditions

Consumption of drinking water containing pathogenic microorganisms may pose serious health risks from waterborne diseases. Quantifying such risks is essential for guiding interventions and policy decisions. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is a very useful method to estimate the public's risk of infection from disease-causing microorganisms in water sources. QMRA of drinking water production process is limited worldwide and so far no such QMRA study has been conducted in Bangladesh. Moreover, climate and socio-economic changes may impact waterborne pathogens and associated health risks, but to what extent remains unclear, because comprehensive QMRA by taking into account combined impact of climatic and socio-economic factors has never been done worldwide so far. In this study, the Swedish QMRA tool was applied to evaluate public health risk from drinking water production process in Dhaka, Bangladesh as a case study. At first, current risk was quantified, and then the potential future risk was projected by taking into account climate and socio-economic factors. The results revealed that the annual infection risks at the current (2020s) baseline condition were below the acceptable risk threshold 10–4 infections per person per year (as proposed by several USEPA scientists) for all three pathogens Salmonella, norovirus and Giardia. However, after extreme events with sewer overflow and agricultural runoff, norovirus violates the acceptable risk thresholds, and the risks for Salmonella and Giardia are in borderline. The selected sustainable future scenario showed some improvement in terms of annual infection risks, while the uncontrolled scenario resulted in substantially higher infection risks both in the near and far future compared to the current scenarios. installment of a UV treatment step as an additional treatment barrier resulted in significant infection risk reduction. According to the sensitivity analysis results, socio-economic factors such as human population, livestock, and pathogen removal in wastewater were found to have greater influence on the infection risks, compared to climate change. The study can help policy makers and water managers to identify interventions to reduce the burden of disease on the population. The tool can be used to assess the health risk associated with drinking water production process in other areas of the world with similar characteristics.

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来源期刊
Microbial Risk Analysis
Microbial Risk Analysis Medicine-Microbiology (medical)
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
7.10%
发文量
28
审稿时长
52 days
期刊介绍: The journal Microbial Risk Analysis accepts articles dealing with the study of risk analysis applied to microbial hazards. Manuscripts should at least cover any of the components of risk assessment (risk characterization, exposure assessment, etc.), risk management and/or risk communication in any microbiology field (clinical, environmental, food, veterinary, etc.). This journal also accepts article dealing with predictive microbiology, quantitative microbial ecology, mathematical modeling, risk studies applied to microbial ecology, quantitative microbiology for epidemiological studies, statistical methods applied to microbiology, and laws and regulatory policies aimed at lessening the risk of microbial hazards. Work focusing on risk studies of viruses, parasites, microbial toxins, antimicrobial resistant organisms, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), and recombinant DNA products are also acceptable.
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