关于在沿岸洪水模拟中详细表示防洪设施和流波耦合的问题

Trang Minh Duong, Remi Meynadier, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Jeremy D. Bricker, Johan Reyns, Arjen Luijendijk, Janaka Bamunawala
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摘要

据预测,21 世纪的沿海洪水将变得更加严重,因此必须采取有效的适应措施,而这反过来 又需要详细的地方尺度信息,只有详细的数值模拟才能提供这些信息。目前,由于缺乏防洪措施方面的信息,而传统的流体力学模型又需要大量的资源,因此,详细的沿岸洪水模拟同时也面临着挑战。但是,要充分准确地模拟沿岸洪水,需要多全面地反映沿岸防洪和水动力强迫呢?在这里,我们试图通过对 Xynthia 风暴期间(2010 年)发生在法国雷岛的洪水进行战略数值模拟来回答这个问题,模拟采用了柔性网格模型 Delft3D FM,陆上网格分辨率约为 10 米。该模型根据 Xynthia 期间在雷岛观测到的洪水范围进行了验证。我们在洪水防御表示中使用了三种详细程度:5 米分辨率的 DEM(即基本情况 DEM)、用从 1 米 DEM 和谷歌地球图像中提取的防御数据增强的相同 5 米 DEM(即适度增强 DEM),以及用现场洪水防御测量数据进一步增强的适度增强 DEM(即高度增强 DEM)。使用这三种 DEM 进行了有流波耦合和无流波耦合的模拟(因此,共进行了 6 次模拟),并根据四项洪水指标对结果进行了分析:最大洪水深度、洪水范围、洪水流速和洪水损失。我们的分析表明,对防洪设施的详细描述和波浪的加入都会对局部尺度的沿岸洪水模 拟产生重大影响,而前者的影响更为明显。在这种情况下,采用非常详细的原位测量来表示洪水防御工事的投资回报率似乎很低, 而采用适度增强的 DEM 可以得到足够精确的结果。与使用不带波浪的基础 DEM 相比,使用带波浪的适度增强 DEM 的综合效果是减少最大洪水深度(达 2 米)、洪水范围(减少约 10%)、最大流速(约 50% 的洪水淹没区)和洪水损失总量(减少约 27% 或约 1.88 亿欧元)。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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On detailed representation of flood defences and flow-wave coupling in coastal flood modelling
Coastal flooding is projected to become more severe over the 21st century, necessitating effective adaptation, which in turn requires detailed local scale information that can only be provided by detailed numerical modelling. The current lack of information on flood protection measures and the high resource requirements of traditional hydrodynamic models presents concurrent challenges for detailed coastal flood modelling. But how comprehensive do the representation of coastal flood defences and hydrodynamic forcing need to be for adequately accurate modelling of coastal flooding? Here, we attempt to answer this question through strategic numerical simulations of the flooding that occurred at Île de Ré (France) during the Xynthia storm (2010), using the flexible mesh model Delft3D FM, with an over-land grid resolution of ~10 m. The model is validated against the flood extents observed in Île de Ré during Xynthia. We use three levels of detail in flood defence representation: a 5 m resolution DEM (i.e. base case DEM), the same 5 m DEM augmented with defences extracted from a 1 m DEM and Google Earth images (i.e. moderately augmented DEM), and the moderately augmented DEM further augmented with in-situ measurements of flood defences (i.e. highly augmented DEM). Simulations with these three DEMs are performed with and without flow-wave coupling (thus, 6 simulations in total), and results are analysed in terms of four flood indicators: maximum flood depths, flood extents, flood current velocities and flood damages. Our analysis indicates that both detailed representation of flood defences and the inclusion of waves have substantial effects on coastal flood modelling at local scale, with the former having a more pronounced effect. The return on the investment in implementing highly detailed in-situ measurements to represent flood defences appears to be low in this case, and adequately accurate results are obtained with a moderately augmented DEM. The combined effect of using the moderately augmented DEM together with waves, relative to using the base case DEM without waves, is to decrease maximum flood depths (up to 2 m), flood extent (by ~10%), maximum current velocities (in ~50% flooded area) and total flood damage (by ~27% or ~€ 188 million).
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