Trajectories and Transitions in Service Use Among Older Veterans at High Risk of Long-Term Institutional Care.

Background: We aimed to identify combinations of long-term services and supports (LTSS) Veterans use, describe transitions between groups, and identify factors influencing transition.

Methods: We explored LTSS across a continuum from home to institutional care. Analyses included 104,837 Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patients 66 years and older at high-risk of long-term institutional care (LTIC). We conduct latent class and latent transition analyses using VHA and Medicare data from fiscal years 2014 to 2017. We used logistic regression to identify variables associated with transition.

Results: We identified 5 latent classes: (1) No Services (11% of sample in 2015); (2) Medicare Services (31%), characterized by using LTSS only in Medicare; (3) VHA-Medicare Care Continuum (19%), including LTSS use in various settings across VHA and Medicare; (4) Personal Care Services (21%), characterized by high probabilities of using VHA homemaker/home health aide or self-directed care; and (5) Home-Centered Interdisciplinary Care (18%), characterized by a high probability of using home-based primary care. Veterans frequently stayed in the same class over the three years (30% to 46% in each class). Having a hip fracture, self-care impairment, or severe ambulatory limitation increased the odds of leaving No Services, and incontinence and dementia increased the odds of entering VHA-Medicare Care Continuum. Results were similar when restricted to Veterans who survived during all 3 years of the study period.

Conclusions: Veterans at high risk of LTIC use a combination of services from across the care continuum and a mix of VHA and Medicare services. Service patterns are relatively stable for 3 years.