{"title":"哪些每日股票收益率能改善产出预测？","authors":"Mohammad R. Jahan-Pavar , William J. Lang","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111897","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We document the improvements in short term forecasts of real output growth for the United States and the euro area from incorporating daily financial data and using mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. Furthermore, we show that a significant share of forecast improvements are driven by information embedded in stock returns of large, capital-intensive firms. In comparison, labor-intensive firms contribute less to improvements in output forecasts within a MIDAS framework.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":11468,"journal":{"name":"Economics Letters","volume":"243 ","pages":"Article 111897"},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Which daily equity returns improve output forecasts?\",\"authors\":\"Mohammad R. Jahan-Pavar , William J. Lang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111897\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>We document the improvements in short term forecasts of real output growth for the United States and the euro area from incorporating daily financial data and using mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. Furthermore, we show that a significant share of forecast improvements are driven by information embedded in stock returns of large, capital-intensive firms. In comparison, labor-intensive firms contribute less to improvements in output forecasts within a MIDAS framework.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11468,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Economics Letters\",\"volume\":\"243 \",\"pages\":\"Article 111897\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Economics Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176524003811\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/8/5 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economics Letters","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176524003811","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/8/5 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Which daily equity returns improve output forecasts?
We document the improvements in short term forecasts of real output growth for the United States and the euro area from incorporating daily financial data and using mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. Furthermore, we show that a significant share of forecast improvements are driven by information embedded in stock returns of large, capital-intensive firms. In comparison, labor-intensive firms contribute less to improvements in output forecasts within a MIDAS framework.
期刊介绍：
Many economists today are concerned by the proliferation of journals and the concomitant labyrinth of research to be conquered in order to reach the specific information they require. To combat this tendency, Economics Letters has been conceived and designed outside the realm of the traditional economics journal. As a Letters Journal, it consists of concise communications (letters) that provide a means of rapid and efficient dissemination of new results, models and methods in all fields of economic research.
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