全球化和金融发展对苏丹经济增长的贡献

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Research in Globalization Pub Date : 2024-08-15 DOI:10.1016/j.resglo.2024.100246
Khalid Eltayeb Elfaki , Elsadig Musa Ahmed
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的主要目的是通过应用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型,利用 1978 年至 2021 年的数据,评估全球化和金融发展如何促进了苏丹的经济增长。此外,还建立了一个模型来计算全要素生产率和基本变量的贡献。自回归分布滞后模型的研究结果表明,从长期来看,全球化和资本对苏丹的经济增长有着积极有益的影响,这意味着苏丹的全球化指数每增加一个百分点,就会在一段时间内促进经济增长 1.50408 % 和 0.156301 %。作为控制变量的政府支出对经济增长有积极影响。金融发展对苏丹的经济增长有不利影响。平均生产率增长率为负值,与全球化和金融发展的积极贡献无关。这一结果表明,全球化和资本对苏丹经济有利。因此,本研究主张,资本积累引发投资,鼓励全球市场更加开放,使其更容易进入国际市场,建立一个强大而先进的金融体系以协助苏丹的经济发展,加强苏丹的支出政策以支持生产部门并鼓励国内生产,这些都将显著刺激战后经济增长,同时考虑到其他措施,如法规、投资法、机构质量、银行系统的整合以及确定支出的优先次序。
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Globalization and financial development contributions toward economic growth in Sudan

The main objective of this study is to evaluate how globalization and financial development contributed to Sudan’s economic growth using data from 1978 to 2021 by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Furthermore, a model to calculate total factor productivity and the contributions of the underlying variables is being developed. The findings from ARDL indicate that globalization and capital display positive and beneficial impacts on Sudan’s economic growth in the long run, implying that an increase of one percentage point in Sudan’s globalization index will, over time, boost economic growth by 1.50408 % and 0.156301 %. Government spending as a control variable was found to influence economic growth positively. Financial development shows a detrimental effect on growth in Sudan. The average productivity growth rate is negative, regardless of the positive contributions of globalization and financial development. This outcome suggests that globalization and capital have been gainful to Sudan’s economy. Therefore, this study advocates that capital accumulation triggers investment, encouraging more global market openness making it easier to access international markets, setting up a strong and sophisticated financial system to assist Sudan’s economic development, and enhancing Sudan’s spending policy to support the productive sectors and encourage domestic production will significantly stimulate economic growth post-war, taking into account additional measures, such as regulations, investment laws, institutional quality, the integration of the banking system, and identifying expenditure prioritizations.

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来源期刊
Research in Globalization
Research in Globalization Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
8.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
31
审稿时长
79 days
期刊最新文献
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