Research in Globalization最新文献

Global development at work: introduction 工作中的全球发展：导论

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Research in Globalization

Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.resglo.2026.100334

Johan Fischer , Eva F. Nisa

This Special Issue critically examines how development is practised, contested, and reconfigured in a period of geopolitical rivalry, institutional retrenchment, and uneven global engagement. Rather than treating global development as a coherent or settled paradigm, the Special Issue approaches it as a field shaped by fragmentation, shifting power relations, and material constraints. The contributions move beyond abstract debates by grounding analysis in empirical case studies that show how development takes shape in concrete settings. The eight papers engage with four interrelated themes: (1) education and pedagogical citizenship, highlighting the role of learning and knowledge in development; (2) markets and middle-class formations, showing how global economic processes and local values shape aspirations and consumption; (3) gender and globalization, exploring the ways global forces intersect with local gender relations; and (4) global politics and state power, investigating governance, inequality, and state strategies in a globalized world. By foregrounding empirical research and methodological diversity, this Special Issue reframes global development as an open and contested process. Its ‘at work’ approach highlights how development knowledge and practice are assembled under conditions of uncertainty, offering a critical and forward-looking contribution to development studies in a rapidly changing world.

本期特刊批判性地审视了在地缘政治竞争、制度紧缩和全球参与不平衡的时期，发展是如何实践、争论和重新配置的。本期特刊没有将全球发展视为一种连贯的或既定的范式，而是将其视为一个由碎片化、权力关系变化和物质约束形成的领域。这些贡献超越了抽象的辩论，以实证案例研究为基础进行分析，展示了发展如何在具体环境中形成。这八篇论文涉及四个相互关联的主题：(1)教育和教学公民，强调学习和知识在发展中的作用；(2)市场和中产阶级的形成，显示全球经济进程和当地价值观如何塑造愿望和消费；(3)性别与全球化，探讨全球力量与地方性别关系的交叉；(4)全球政治和国家权力，研究全球化世界中的治理、不平等和国家战略。通过突出实证研究和方法多样性，本期特刊将全球发展重新定义为一个开放和有争议的过程。它的“在工作”方法强调了如何在不确定的条件下汇集发展知识和实践，为快速变化的世界中的发展研究提供了关键和前瞻性的贡献。

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引用次数: 0

An outlook on assessing the trend of rainfall and temperature variability in coastal Ghana 评估加纳沿海地区降雨和温度变化趋势的展望

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Research in Globalization

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.resglo.2026.100333

Daniel Tetteh Atsu , Denis Worlanyo Aheto , Gloria Essilfie , Michael Provide Fumey

As climate change intensifies worldwide, understanding how coastal communities adapt and build resilience has become a critical issue in global sustainability and development research. Coastal communities are vital for food security, poverty alleviation, and cultural integrity, especially in coastal emerging nations such as Ghana. Nevertheless, these communities face increasing vulnerability to climate change, characterized by intensifying temperatures, varying rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events, all of which threaten their livelihoods. This study focuses on the trend analysis of climate variability in the Ablekuma West Municipal Assembly and the Shama District in Ghana, utilizing historical climate data. Secondary data (time series) was obtained from the Ghana Meteorological Agency on climate variables such as rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature, ranging from 1984 to 2023, and the Modified Mann-Kendall Test and Sen’s Slope were used to determine the trends of rainfall and temperature, which revealed that both have significantly increased over time. The Ablekuma West Municipal Assembly and the Shama District exhibited significant rainfall variability, with the Ablekuma West Municipal Assembly ranging from 419.4 mm to 973.8 mm and the Shama District from 701.8 mm to 1456.6 mm. The Ablekuma West Municipal Assembly recorded maximum temperatures ranging from 28.9°C to 31.5°C, with an annual mean of 30.1°C. In the Shama district, the maximum temperature ranged from 29.3°C to 30.8°C, with an annual average of 30.2°C. Meanwhile, the minimum temperature ranges from 22.3°C to 24.2°C. The study highlights potential adaptive strategies and proposes policies to enhance resilience. The research informs the design of targeted interventions to protect the livelihoods of vulnerable fishing communities in Ghana and other similar regions worldwide.

随着全球气候变化的加剧，了解沿海社区如何适应和建立抵御能力已成为全球可持续性和发展研究中的一个关键问题。沿海社区对粮食安全、扶贫和文化完整至关重要，尤其是在加纳等沿海新兴国家。然而，这些社区越来越容易受到气候变化的影响，其特征是气温升高、降雨模式变化和极端天气事件，所有这些都威胁到他们的生计。本研究利用历史气候数据，对加纳阿伯库马西部市议会和沙马地区的气候变率进行了趋势分析。从加纳气象局获得了1984年至2023年的降水、最高和最低温度等气候变量的二次数据（时间序列），并使用修正Mann-Kendall检验和Sen 's Slope来确定降雨量和温度的趋势，结果表明两者都随着时间的推移而显著增加。西部阿伯库马市议会和沙马区表现出显著的降水变异性，其中西部阿伯库马市议会在419.4 ~ 973.8 mm之间，沙马区在701.8 ~ 1456.6 mm之间。Ablekuma West市政议会的最高气温为28.9°C至31.5°C，年平均气温为30.1°C。沙马地区最高气温29.3 ~ 30.8℃，年平均气温30.2℃。最低气温22.3 ~ 24.2℃。该研究强调了潜在的适应性战略，并提出了增强韧性的政策。该研究为设计有针对性的干预措施提供了信息，以保护加纳和世界其他类似地区脆弱渔业社区的生计。

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引用次数: 0

Do individual and country-level factors cushion the impact of COVID-19 financial worry on digital financial inclusion in Africa? 个人和国家层面的因素是否缓解了2019冠状病毒病金融担忧对非洲数字普惠金融的影响？

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Research in Globalization

Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.resglo.2025.100332

Chimwemwe Chipeta , Ganesh Mani , Patrick McSharry , Edith Luhanga , Yudhvir Seetharam , Kingstone Nyakurukwa

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated digital onboarding and FinTech adoption, reshaping financial behaviours. However, the pandemic also introduced financial hardships, leading to negative impacts on digital financial inclusion. Using the 2021 World Bank’s Findex data on 31 African countries and a series of probit models, we find that COVID-19 financial worry has a significant negative effect on the adoption of digital financial services and that this phenomenon is likely to negatively influence post-COVID-19 digital financial inclusion in Africa. We also show that demographic and country-specific factors are significantly likely to cushion the negative effects of COVID-19-related financial worries on digital financial inclusion. We show the behavioural channels bridging the connection between COVID worry and digital financial inclusion. The findings underscore the need for targeted policy interventions aimed at enhancing financial resilience and inclusion during crises.

2019冠状病毒病大流行加速了数字入职和金融科技的采用，重塑了金融行为。然而，疫情也带来了财政困难，对数字普惠金融产生了负面影响。利用2021年世界银行31个非洲国家的金融包容性指数数据和一系列probit模型，我们发现COVID-19金融担忧对数字金融服务的采用产生了显著的负面影响，这种现象可能会对后COVID-19非洲的数字普惠金融产生负面影响。我们还表明，人口和具体国家因素极有可能缓解与covid -19相关的金融担忧对数字普惠金融的负面影响。我们展示了架起COVID担忧与数字普惠金融之间联系的行为渠道。研究结果强调，需要采取有针对性的政策干预措施，以增强危机期间的金融韧性和包容性。

引用次数: 0

The co-optation of critique: African universities’ bibliometric contestation within global academic capitalism 批判的合用：全球学术资本主义下非洲大学的文献计量学之争

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Research in Globalization

Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.resglo.2025.100330

Eutychus Ngotho Gichuru , Archangel Byaruhanga Rukooko

This research employs a critical-theoretical analysis based almost solely on Herbert Marcuse’s concept of repressive tolerance to explore the paradox in which African universities are increasingly vocal about sophisticated critiques of bibliometric limitations in academic promotion but are in turn incapable of implementing alternative evaluation systems. Employing a secondary data review of peer-reviewed literature from 2010 to 2024, we analyse this discourse, finding that the implementation gap bears witness to asymmetrical globalization and the systematic co-optation of dissent within higher education. This study points to an expansive African scholarship cataloguing the epistemic violence of bibliometrics while also demonstrating how these structural constraints against the critique inhibit real institutional autonomy. Our analysis demonstrates how critical discourse becomes complicit with the systems it seeks to challenge, negotiating from within knowledge economies that ritualize such oppositions while constraining actual transformations. The findings show that top-down reform failures speak of coordination challenges, lack of resources, and path dependency created by a globally uniform academic system that neutralizes transformative potential through subordinate incorporation. We propose coordinated continental evaluation authorities and strong journal infrastructures and strategically position themselves to counter this co-optive logic and forcefully set the stage for moving global knowledge economies from asymmetry toward reciprocity.

本研究采用了一种几乎完全基于赫伯特·马尔库塞（Herbert Marcuse）的压抑性容忍概念的批判理论分析，以探索非洲大学越来越多地对学术推广中的文献计量学局限性提出复杂批评的悖论，但反过来又无法实施替代评估系统。通过对2010年至2024年同行评议文献的二次数据回顾，我们分析了这一论述，发现实施差距见证了不对称的全球化和高等教育系统地接纳异议。这项研究指出了一个广泛的非洲学术编目文献计量学的认识暴力，同时也证明了这些反对批评的结构性约束如何抑制真正的机构自治。我们的分析表明，批判性话语是如何与它试图挑战的体系沆瀣一理的，从知识经济内部进行谈判，使这种对立变得仪式化，同时限制了实际的变革。研究结果表明，自上而下的改革失败涉及协调挑战、资源缺乏和路径依赖，这是由全球统一的学术体系造成的，这种体系通过从属合并来中和变革潜力。我们建议协调大陆评估机构和强大的期刊基础设施，并在战略上定位自己，以对抗这种合作逻辑，并有力地为将全球知识经济从不对称转向互惠奠定基础。

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引用次数: 0

Effect of Globalization on Poverty Reduction: Global Threshold Evidence for Achieving Sustainable Development Goal 1 全球化对减贫的影响：实现可持续发展目标1的全球阈值证据

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Research in Globalization

Pub Date : 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.resglo.2025.100329

Sodiq Olaide Bisiriyu , Adviti Devaguptapu , Manzoor Hassan Malik

Global human development has improved, partly due to the transformative wave of globalization. However, despite progress in poverty reduction over the past two decades, recent United Nations SDG reports highlight substantial setbacks among developing countries, especially low- and middle-income economies. This study investigates the threshold impact of globalization benefits on poverty and demonstrates the non-linearity of the benefits to poverty at different regimes of institutional quality. The Hansen panel threshold model is employed to analyze data of 116 developing countries from 2000 to 2021, with complementary regional estimates. The reliability and validity of the findings are reinforced using panel-corrected standard errors and dynamic GMM estimators as robustness checks. The results establish non-linear poverty-reducing benefits of globalization, with more pronounced impacts under high global interconnectedness. Additionally, the study provides nuanced evidence of globalization’s diminishing marginal social welfare returns to poverty at higher thresholds of integration. Finally, it argues that strong institutions are essential to amplify globalization benefits towards achieving sustainable development goal 1 and to mitigate the negative externalities associated with intensified globalization.

全球人类发展得到了改善，部分原因是全球化的变革浪潮。然而，尽管过去二十年来在减贫方面取得了进展，但最近的联合国可持续发展目标报告强调了发展中国家，特别是低收入和中等收入经济体的重大挫折。本研究考察了全球化利益对贫困的阈值影响，并证明了不同制度质量制度下的贫困利益的非线性。采用Hansen面板阈值模型分析了116个发展中国家2000年至2021年的数据，并进行了补充的区域估计。使用面板校正的标准误差和动态GMM估计器作为鲁棒性检查，增强了研究结果的可靠性和有效性。研究结果表明，全球化的减贫效益是非线性的，在全球互联程度高的情况下，其影响更为明显。此外，该研究还提供了细致入微的证据，证明在较高的一体化门槛下，全球化对贫困的边际社会福利回报正在递减。最后，报告认为，强大的机构对于扩大全球化对实现可持续发展目标1的好处和减轻与全球化加剧有关的负面外部性至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Organizational performance optimization: An AI-enabled framework for employee compensation and benefits management 组织绩效优化：支持人工智能的员工薪酬和福利管理框架

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Research in Globalization

Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.resglo.2025.100328

Prabodh B. Nayak, Itam Urmila Jagadeeswari

An organization’s long-term success is primarily tied to employee performance, creating a mutually beneficial relationship. High-performance employees drive organizational excellence, whereas effective organizations foster employee growth and development. Strategic compensation and benefit management enable employee performance by fostering trust, well-being, and engagement. This productivity gain translates to a sustainable competitive advantage, as high-performance and engaged human resources consistently deliver superior outcomes and innovations. Therefore, this study proposes an innovative Big Data Analytics (BDA)-enabled Organizational Performance Optimization (OPO) framework for compensation and benefit management. Integrating two technological models–Big Data Enabled Decision Support Architecture (BD-DSA) for secure beneficiary verification, and Contextual Recurrent-Value Learning Unit Gated Recurring Unit (CR-VLU-GRU) for accurate pay-grade classification–this framework addresses critical gaps in Human Resource (HR) decision-making. To balance operational efficiency and employee trust, this study incorporates data privacy-preserving techniques and efficient structuring into the model. The findings of the study show significant improvements in the proposed model when compared with the existing models, with – 50 % faster data retrieval for employee queries, 70 % reduction in employee digital signature creation and verification time, and 99 % accuracy and fairness in compensation allocation based on pay-grade classifications. The study highlights how data-driven compensation and benefit management strategies directly contribute to employee performance, reducing employee turnover, and eventually boosting the productivity and performance of the organization. Limitations and future direction discussions indicate that the integration of corporate social responsibility dimensions and cross-sectoral validations would strengthen the proposed framework to broaden generalizability.

一个组织的长期成功主要与员工的表现联系在一起，创造一种互利的关系。高绩效的员工推动组织的卓越，而有效的组织促进员工的成长和发展。战略薪酬和福利管理通过培养信任、幸福感和敬业度来提高员工绩效。这种生产力的提高转化为可持续的竞争优势，因为高性能和敬业的人力资源始终提供卓越的成果和创新。因此，本研究提出了一个创新的大数据分析（BDA）支持的组织绩效优化（OPO）框架，用于薪酬和福利管理。该框架集成了两种技术模型——用于安全受益人验证的大数据支持决策支持架构（BD-DSA）和用于准确薪资等级分类的上下文循环价值学习单元门控循环单元（CR-VLU-GRU）——解决了人力资源（HR）决策中的关键空白。为了平衡运营效率和员工信任，本研究将数据隐私保护技术和高效结构纳入模型。研究结果表明，与现有模型相比，所提出的模型有了显著的改进，员工查询的数据检索速度提高了50%，员工数字签名创建和验证时间减少了70%，基于薪酬等级分类的薪酬分配的准确性和公平性提高了99%。该研究强调了数据驱动的薪酬和福利管理策略如何直接促进员工绩效，减少员工流失率，并最终提高组织的生产力和绩效。局限性和未来方向的讨论表明，将企业社会责任各方面和跨部门的验证结合起来将加强所提议的框架，以扩大其普遍性。

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引用次数: 0

Financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, and market volatility: implications for cross-border acquisition activity 金融压力、经济政策不确定性和市场波动：对跨境收购活动的影响

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Research in Globalization

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resglo.2025.100327

Chandrika Raghavendra , Kedar Pandurang Joshi , M. Ramkumar , Savitha Heggede

Cross-border acquisitions (CBAs) play a crucial role in global business strategies but are influenced by various macroeconomic factors. By applying real options theory, this study investigates the impact of financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, and equity market volatility on CBA inflows in the U.S. using 3,479 observations from 137 countries (1990–2023). We examine whether these factors create opportunities for multinational enterprises (MNEs) to acquire assets at discounted prices or deter investments due to increased uncertainty. Employing econometric models to test hypotheses based on real options theory, we elucidate the interplay between host country economic conditions and foreign investment decisions in CBAs. The results show that financial stress and equity market volatility positively affect CBA inflows, as MNEs exploit undervalued opportunities during turbulent periods. In contrast, economic policy uncertainty reduces CBA inflows and discourages firms from investing in uncertain environments. Advanced economy firms leverage financial turbulence and equity market volatility more effectively than emerging economy firms, which are more sensitive to economic policy uncertainty and institutional distance. These findings underscore the importance of economic development in influencing firm strategies for managing uncertainty in international investments and offer insights into CBA determinants. This study informs MNE managers and emphasizes the need for customized risk assessment frameworks. Policy implications suggest that host countries can attract investors by reducing economic policy uncertainty, maintaining policy stability, leveraging periods of financial stress to boost foreign investment and economic recovery, and balancing investor interests.

跨国收购在全球企业战略中发挥着至关重要的作用，但也受到各种宏观经济因素的影响。本研究运用实物期权理论，利用来自137个国家（1990-2023年）的3479个观察数据，探讨了金融压力、经济政策不确定性和股票市场波动对美国CBA流入的影响。我们研究这些因素是否为跨国企业（MNEs）创造了以折扣价收购资产的机会，还是由于不确定性增加而阻碍了投资。基于实物期权理论，运用计量经济模型对假设进行检验，阐明了东道国经济状况与外资投资决策之间的相互作用。结果表明，金融压力和股市波动对CBA流入产生了积极影响，因为跨国公司在动荡时期利用了被低估的机会。相反，经济政策的不确定性减少了CBA的流入，并阻碍了企业在不确定的环境中投资。发达经济体企业比新兴经济体企业更有效地利用金融动荡和股票市场波动，新兴经济体企业对经济政策不确定性和制度距离更敏感。这些发现强调了经济发展在影响企业管理国际投资不确定性战略方面的重要性，并提供了对CBA决定因素的见解。这项研究为跨国公司经理提供了信息，并强调了定制风险评估框架的必要性。政策影响表明，东道国可以通过减少经济政策不确定性、保持政策稳定、利用金融压力期促进外国投资和经济复苏以及平衡投资者利益来吸引投资者。

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引用次数: 0

Trade and governance in developing Asia: the role of FinTech in shaping institutional quality and global integration 亚洲发展中国家的贸易与治理：金融科技在塑造制度质量和全球一体化中的作用

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Research in Globalization

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.resglo.2025.100326

Ramsha Saleem , Mubasher Iqbal , Noman Arshed , Judit Oláh , Muhammad Naeem

Weak Governance infrastructures are usually considered as main reason behind the poor economic performance of developing countries. In this context,

{S D G}_{16}

is particularly designed for peace, justice, and strong institutions. Considering the increasing economic integration among nations, this study has proposed a model in which trade openness is taken as a key driver of governance improvement. Several studies also exist against economic integration; they claim that globalization works in favor of developed countries while against developing countries. However, this study is based on a panel of developing Asian countries for the period 1996 to 2022. panel quantile and Driscoll-Kraay two-step ECM methods are the key econometric approaches of this study, one of robust for non-normality, while the other is for cross-sectional dependence, respectively. This study has confirmed that trade openness initially promotes institutional improvement. But a consistent trade openness expansion eventually brings it down. Financial technologies (FinTech) are taken as a determinant of governance and a moderator of trade openness. It is confirmed that FinTech enhances governance quality and supports a more sustainable relationship between trade and institutions. Among control variables, inflation deteriorates governance quality, whereas educational expenditures and debt servicing contribute in favor of governance.

治理基础设施薄弱通常被认为是发展中国家经济表现不佳的主要原因。在此背景下，可持续发展目标16是专门为和平、正义和强大的机构而设计的。考虑到各国之间日益增长的经济一体化，本研究提出了一个模型，其中贸易开放被视为治理改善的关键驱动因素。也有一些研究反对经济一体化；他们声称全球化有利于发达国家而不利于发展中国家。然而，这项研究是基于1996年至2022年期间亚洲发展中国家的一个小组。面板分位数和Driscoll-Kraay两步ECM方法是本研究的关键计量经济学方法，其中一种方法对非正态性具有鲁棒性，另一种方法对横截面依赖性具有鲁棒性。本研究证实了贸易开放最初促进制度完善。但持续扩大贸易开放最终会降低贸易逆差。金融技术（FinTech）被视为治理的决定因素和贸易开放的调节因素。报告证实，金融科技提高了治理质量，支持贸易和机构之间更可持续的关系。在控制变量中，通货膨胀恶化了治理质量，而教育支出和偿债有利于治理。

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引用次数: 0

Asymmetric and dynamic linkages between green bonds and sustainable agriculture 绿色债券与可持续农业之间的不对称和动态联系

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Research in Globalization

Pub Date : 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.resglo.2025.100323

Thomas Adjei Kuffour, John Gartchie Gatsi, Patrick Kwashie Akorsu, Peterson Owusu Junior

This study analyses the asymmetric and dynamic connectedness amongst green bonds and sustainable agriculture. To capture the dynamic, time–frequency interactions, the study employs Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Wavelet Coherence Analysis. The study further applies Quantile Regression to examine asymmetric relationships across market states. The dynamic results show minimal short-term connectedness, but medium- and long-term links are stronger, with green bonds showing positive co-movements with sustainable agriculture. The asymmetric results show that dependence intensifies at the upper and lower quantiles, reflecting stronger spillovers during extreme market conditions. In bullish markets (upper), both markets exhibit synchronized optimism, while in bearish markets (lower), connectedness strengthens due to shared downside risks. In the medium term, green bonds have a greater association with already sustainable agricultural practices, while in the long-term, underperforming sectors benefit more from green bond investments. These findings highlight the nonlinear, market-dependent nature of the green bond-agriculture relationship and underscore the importance of targeted green finance policies. Policymakers and investors can use these insights to design resilient financial mechanisms that align capital flows with sustainable agricultural development.

本研究分析了绿色债券与可持续农业之间的不对称和动态联系。为了捕捉动态的时频相互作用，研究采用了集成经验模态分解（EEMD）和小波相干分析。该研究进一步应用分位数回归来检验市场状态之间的不对称关系。动态结果显示，短期联系最小，但中长期联系更强，绿色债券显示出与可持续农业的积极协同运动。非对称结果表明，依赖在上、下分位数上都加剧，反映出在极端市场条件下更强的溢出效应。在看涨市场（上），两个市场表现出同步的乐观情绪，而在看跌市场（下），由于共同的下行风险，连通性增强。从中期来看，绿色债券与已经可持续的农业实践有更大的联系，而从长期来看，表现不佳的行业从绿色债券投资中获益更多。这些发现突出了绿色债券与农业关系的非线性、市场依赖性，并强调了有针对性的绿色金融政策的重要性。政策制定者和投资者可以利用这些见解设计有弹性的金融机制，使资本流动与可持续农业发展保持一致。

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引用次数: 0

Time-varying dynamics of energy and sustainability uncertainty 能源时变动力学与可持续性不确定性

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Research in Globalization

Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.resglo.2025.100325

Bekhzod Kuziboev , A.Nazif Çatık , Kamil Pícha , Samariddin Makhmudov , Aziza Matyakubova , Esra Balli

This article examines the link between energy-related uncertainty and sustainability uncertainty by utilizing monthly data from November 2002 to October 2022. To this aim, wavelet coherence and time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) methodologies are utilized. Wavelet coherence results uncover statistically significant long-term correlation between energy and sustainability uncertainties, particularly during periods of global economic crises. The time-varying responses reveal that the impact of energy-related uncertainty shocks is positive over the analysis period. The impacts of energy-related uncertainty are found to be more pronounced during the turbulent periods, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The time-varying impact of global economic activity on the sustainability uncertainty does not follow a stable trajectory, and it is not statistically significant. The time-varying impact of financial stress on the sustainability uncertainty is not stable, including both positive and negative effects over the analysis period. The results generally reveal the complex interconnections between energy markets, economic conditions, and sustainability issues. This evidence highlights the importance of policymakers taking these connections into account when formulating strategies for energy security and sustainable development, particularly during periods of global economic uncertainty.

本文利用2002年11月至2022年10月的月度数据，考察了能源相关不确定性与可持续性不确定性之间的联系。为此，采用了小波相干和时变参数向量自回归（TVP-VAR）方法。小波相干性结果揭示了能源和可持续性不确定性之间具有统计意义的长期相关性，特别是在全球经济危机期间。时变响应表明，在分析期间，与能源相关的不确定性冲击的影响是积极的。研究发现，在2008年全球金融危机和2019冠状病毒病大流行等动荡时期，能源相关不确定性的影响更为明显。全球经济活动对可持续性不确定性的时变影响并不遵循稳定的轨迹，且在统计上不显著。财务压力对可持续性不确定性的时变影响是不稳定的，包括在分析期间的积极和消极影响。研究结果总体上揭示了能源市场、经济状况和可持续性问题之间复杂的相互联系。这一证据强调了决策者在制定能源安全和可持续发展战略时，特别是在全球经济不确定时期，考虑这些联系的重要性。

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引用次数: 0