基于可解释机器学习模型和多目标优化算法的城市绿色基础设施优化规划:中国北京市中心案例研究

IF 7.9 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Landscape and Urban Planning Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2024.105191
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引用次数: 0

摘要

绿色基础设施(GI)已发展成为缓解城市洪灾的一种可持续方法。虽然机器学习(ML)模型在城市洪水模拟中表现出了优势,但将其直接应用于支持城市规模的绿色基础设施定量规划仍是一项挑战。为解决这一问题,本研究将基于支持向量机(SVM)和夏普利加法解释(SHAP)方法的可解释 ML 模型与非支配排序遗传算法-II(NSGA-II)相结合。该模型被应用于中国北京中心城区的案例,并显示出较高的性能,曲线下面积(AUC)值达到 0.94。城市洪水易感性评估结果表明,研究区域的城乡过渡带面临较大的洪水威胁。通过利用 SHAP 进行模型解释,揭示了 GI 和灰色基础设施(GrI)在防洪中的主导作用,并证明在 GI 比例小于 0.45 的研究单元中,两者之间的非线性互补性更为显著。在基于 NSGA-II 的优化框架支持下,实现了不同 GI 实施总量下的最优 GI 方案,其中 GI 总面积增加 3.21% 的方案被选为投资效益最佳的方案。根据模型,建议采用分散和小规模的地理信息系统实施模式。本研究提供了一个具有广阔应用前景的工具,有效地将地理信息系统的实施与城市规划相结合。研究结果不仅为确定北京市新生态空间的优先区域提供了重要参考,也为具有相似特征的地区提供了地理信息系统规划和城市内涝治理的新思路。
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Optimized green infrastructure planning at the city scale based on an interpretable machine learning model and multi-objective optimization algorithm: A case study of central Beijing, China

Green infrastructure (GI) has developed as a sustainable approach to the mitigation of urban floods. While machine learning (ML) models have exhibited advantages in urban flood simulation, their direct application to support the quantitative planning of GI at the city scale remains a challenge. To address this, an interpretable ML model based on support vector machine (SVM) and the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) approach is integrated with the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) in this study. The model is applied to the case of central Beijing, China, and demonstrates a robust performance with a high area under curve (AUC) value of 0.94. The results of the urban flood susceptibility assessment identify the urban-rural transition zone in the study area as being under a greater flood threat. Via model interpretation with SHAP, the dominant roles of GI and grey infrastructure (GrI) in preventing flood are revealed and the non-linear complementarity between the two is demonstrated to be more significant in study units with a GI proportion of less than 0.45. Supported by the NSGA-II-based optimization framework, optimal GI plans under different total implementations of GI are achieved, among which a solution with a 3.21% increase in the total GI area is selected as that with the best investment efficiency. The pattern of GI implementation is suggested to be dispersed and small-scale by model. This study provides a tool with broad application prospects, effectively integrating GI implementation with urban planning. The findings of this study not only provide important references for the determination of the priority areas of new ecological space in Beijing, but also provide areas that share similar characteristics with new insight into GI planning and the management of urban floods.

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来源期刊
Landscape and Urban Planning
Landscape and Urban Planning 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
15.20
自引率
6.60%
发文量
232
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: Landscape and Urban Planning is an international journal that aims to enhance our understanding of landscapes and promote sustainable solutions for landscape change. The journal focuses on landscapes as complex social-ecological systems that encompass various spatial and temporal dimensions. These landscapes possess aesthetic, natural, and cultural qualities that are valued by individuals in different ways, leading to actions that alter the landscape. With increasing urbanization and the need for ecological and cultural sensitivity at various scales, a multidisciplinary approach is necessary to comprehend and align social and ecological values for landscape sustainability. The journal believes that combining landscape science with planning and design can yield positive outcomes for both people and nature.
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