Pathways for the US food processing sector under economy-wide net zero in a multisector dynamic framework

The food processing sector is a large, energy-consuming and CO_2-emitting industrial sector. The sector was estimated to account for 6 % of US industrial CO₂ emissions in 2020. The sector uses significant amounts of fossil fuels, biomass, and electricity to perform a range of operations such as baking, drying, and refrigeration. Additionally, the sector is tightly linked to the agriculture and land use sectors. In this analysis, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a coupled, energy-economy-agriculture-land-use-water-climate systems model, to examine the role of the food processing sector in the EMF37 2050 US net-zero CO₂ scenario. We explore the implications for technology and fuel choice and go beyond to examine US food consumption, food prices, and land-use change. To better understand the sensitivity of our results to alternative developments, we assess multiple sensitivity scenarios for the US and other world regions, with a focus on varied food processing energy intensity pathways.

We find that along the EMF37 US net-zero path, the food processing sector electrifies the majority of its process heat. We also find that the industry phases-down natural gas use and completely phases-out coal. Additionally, we observe a marginal decrease in US food consumption per capita relative to our reference scenario. This primarily occurs due to the increase in consumer food prices resulting from increased demand for purpose-grown biomass crops, which compete with food crops for land resources. Finally, cumulative energy savings of 4.2 EJ are achieved from 2020 to 2050 in a scenario in which the US reduces its food processing intensity to EU-15 levels.