Hotter weather, less of a hoax? Testing the longitudinal association between experience of temperature anomalies and belief in climate change conspiracy theories

While people across the world are experiencing hotter summers, there is still a considerable number of people who believe that climate change is a hoax. It thus raises the question of whether the experience of local temperature anomalies would influence people's beliefs about climate change conspiracy. To address this question, we conducted a two-wave longitudinal study with participants from the U.S. (Study 1) and mainland China (Study 2), respectively. We expect that the experience of temperature anomalies would serve as a cognitive proxy that counteracts the hoax conspiracy narratives and thus would be negatively related to belief in such narratives. We further explored whether this negative association would be related to less perceived psychological distance, stronger negative emotions, and more climate change-related information exposure; and whether it would be weaker among people who tended to interpret things in a conspiracist manner (i.e., conspiracy mentality). In Study 1, our results support the hypothesized links cross-sectionally and longitudinally on the subjective experience of hotter summer, except for climate change-related information exposure. In Study 2, we found only cross-sectional associations between the constructs, except for climate change-related information exposure. Lastly, we found mixed evidence regarding the moderating role of conspiracy mentality between the studies. Our findings provide initial support that climate change conspiracy beliefs are malleable to people's subjective experience of temperature anomalies. The happening of temperature anomalies could be a crucial opportunity for promoting scientific understanding of climate change.