{"title":"1992-2021年香港食道癌发病模式的演变：年龄-时期-队列及分解分析","authors":"Lijun Wang, Jianqiang Du, Haifeng Sun","doi":"10.3389/ijph.2024.1607315","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To elucidate the historical trends, underlying causes and future projections of esophageal cancer incidence in Hong Kong.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Utilizing the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model, we analyzed data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (1992-2021) and United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 Revision. Age-standardized incidence rates were computed, and APC models evaluated age, period, and cohort effects. Bayesian APC modeling, coupled with decomposition analysis, projected future trends and identified factors influencing incidence.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Between 1992 and 2021, both crude and age-standardized incidence rates of esophageal cancer witnessed significant declines. Net drifts exhibited pronounced downward trends for both sexes, with local drift diminishing across all age groups. Period and cohort rate ratios displayed a consistent monotonic decline for both sexes. Projections indicate a continued decline in esophageal cancer incidence. Population decomposition analysis revealed that epidemiological changes offset the increase in esophageal cancer cases due to population growth and aging.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The declining trend of esophageal cancer in Hong Kong is influenced by a combination of age, period, and cohort. Sustaining and enhancing these positive trends requires continuous efforts in public health interventions.</p>","PeriodicalId":14322,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Public Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11335483/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Evolution of Esophageal Cancer Incidence Patterns in Hong Kong, 1992-2021: An Age-Period-Cohort and Decomposition Analysis.\",\"authors\":\"Lijun Wang, Jianqiang Du, Haifeng Sun\",\"doi\":\"10.3389/ijph.2024.1607315\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To elucidate the historical trends, underlying causes and future projections of esophageal cancer incidence in Hong Kong.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Utilizing the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model, we analyzed data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (1992-2021) and United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 Revision. Age-standardized incidence rates were computed, and APC models evaluated age, period, and cohort effects. Bayesian APC modeling, coupled with decomposition analysis, projected future trends and identified factors influencing incidence.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Between 1992 and 2021, both crude and age-standardized incidence rates of esophageal cancer witnessed significant declines. Net drifts exhibited pronounced downward trends for both sexes, with local drift diminishing across all age groups. Period and cohort rate ratios displayed a consistent monotonic decline for both sexes. Projections indicate a continued decline in esophageal cancer incidence. Population decomposition analysis revealed that epidemiological changes offset the increase in esophageal cancer cases due to population growth and aging.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The declining trend of esophageal cancer in Hong Kong is influenced by a combination of age, period, and cohort. Sustaining and enhancing these positive trends requires continuous efforts in public health interventions.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14322,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Public Health\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11335483/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Public Health\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2024.1607315\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/1/1 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"eCollection\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Public Health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3389/ijph.2024.1607315","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Evolution of Esophageal Cancer Incidence Patterns in Hong Kong, 1992-2021: An Age-Period-Cohort and Decomposition Analysis.
Objective: To elucidate the historical trends, underlying causes and future projections of esophageal cancer incidence in Hong Kong.
Methods: Utilizing the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model, we analyzed data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (1992-2021) and United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 Revision. Age-standardized incidence rates were computed, and APC models evaluated age, period, and cohort effects. Bayesian APC modeling, coupled with decomposition analysis, projected future trends and identified factors influencing incidence.
Results: Between 1992 and 2021, both crude and age-standardized incidence rates of esophageal cancer witnessed significant declines. Net drifts exhibited pronounced downward trends for both sexes, with local drift diminishing across all age groups. Period and cohort rate ratios displayed a consistent monotonic decline for both sexes. Projections indicate a continued decline in esophageal cancer incidence. Population decomposition analysis revealed that epidemiological changes offset the increase in esophageal cancer cases due to population growth and aging.
Conclusion: The declining trend of esophageal cancer in Hong Kong is influenced by a combination of age, period, and cohort. Sustaining and enhancing these positive trends requires continuous efforts in public health interventions.
期刊介绍：
The International Journal of Public Health publishes scientific articles relevant to global public health, from different countries and cultures, and assembles them into issues that raise awareness and understanding of public health problems and solutions. The Journal welcomes submissions of original research, critical and relevant reviews, methodological papers and manuscripts that emphasize theoretical content. IJPH sometimes publishes commentaries and opinions. Special issues highlight key areas of current research. The Editorial Board''s mission is to provide a thoughtful forum for contemporary issues and challenges in global public health research and practice.
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