Cathal L Mills, Rosie Woodroffe, Christl A Donnelly
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An extensive re-evaluation of evidence and analyses of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) I: Within proactive culling areas.
Here, in the first of two investigations, we evaluate and extend the analyses of the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) to estimate the effectiveness of proactive badger culling for reducing incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in cattle within culling areas. Using previously reviewed, publicly available data, alongside frequentist and Bayesian approaches, we re-estimate culling effects for confirmed incidence of herd breakdowns (TB incidents in cattle) within proactive culling areas. We appraise the varying assumptions and statistical structures of individual models to determine model appropriateness. Our re-evaluation of frequentist models provides results consistent with peer-reviewed analyses of RBCT data, due to the consistency of beneficial effects across three analysis periods. Furthermore, well-fitting Bayesian models with weakly informative prior distribution assumptions produce high probabilities (91.2%-99.5%) of beneficial effects of proactive culling on confirmed herd breakdowns within culling areas in the period from the initial culls (between 1998 and 2002) until 2005. Similarly high probabilities of beneficial effects were observed post-trial (from 1 year after last culls until March 2013). Thus, irrespective of statistical approach or study period, we estimate substantial beneficial effects of proactive culling within culling areas, consistent with separate, existing, peer-reviewed analyses of the RBCT data.
期刊介绍:
Royal Society Open Science is a new open journal publishing high-quality original research across the entire range of science on the basis of objective peer-review.
The journal covers the entire range of science and mathematics and will allow the Society to publish all the high-quality work it receives without the usual restrictions on scope, length or impact.