Assessing the potential invasive range of Trichonephila clavata using species distribution models

Since its establishment in North America around 2013, the east-Asian spider Trichonephila clavata has expanded its range to 120,000 km². We used ‘MaxEnt’ species distribution models (SDMs) to assess the potential range and invasive process of T. clavata based on its climatic niche preferences. Results reveal T. clavata exhibits a preference for climatic niches between subtropical and temperate latitudes, with high suitability primarily forecasted in montane forests and coastal regions spanning latitudes of 30–50 degrees. Geographic projections indicate high risk of expansion beyond the current invasive range. Areas with over 50% suitability are predicted as far north as 45–50° N, reaching into southern Canada, while the southern extent approaches the Gulf Coast. Response curves show peak suitability occurs at below-freezing temperatures for the minimum temperature of the coldest month. Similar drivers of distribution between native and invasive models, and an invasive niche occurring within the native range, each suggest niche conservatism for invasive populations. Overall, the vast regions of climatically suitable habitat predicted in North America indicates a highly permissive climate, highlighting the need for further research on biotic factors and management strategies to mitigate spread and impacts.