与 PDO 变化有关的东亚北方夏季 WNP 热带气旋相关极端降水的增加

IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-08-15 DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2024.100714
Jiwei Wu, Ryuichi Kawamura, Takashi Mochizuki, Tetsuya Kawano
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在过去二十年里,北太平洋西部盆地在北方夏季的热带气旋活动发生了显著变化。我们对 1979 年至 2021 年的数据进行了分析,发现 WNP 热带气旋特征和降水模式变化发生了显著变化。为了加深对与热带气旋相关的降水动态的理解,我们明确探讨了与热带气旋相关的核心降水(TCP)和远程降水(TRP)之间的差异。结果表明,TRP 对东亚大陆,尤其是朝鲜半岛有明显影响。值得注意的是,TCP 具有十年变异性,在气候发生强烈变化之后,TCP 与太平洋十年涛动(PDO)之间出现了明显的负相关。这一关键转变的标志是 PDO 于 1997 年首次过渡到负相,这是自 1979 年以来的显著变化,导致东亚地区与热带气旋有关的极端降雨量明显增加。与此同时,西太平洋北部地区海面温度(SST)的上升加剧了西太平洋副热带高压环流。与副热带高压相关的偏东气流随之加强,导致热带气旋轨迹向大陆移动,从而加剧了与热带气旋相关的极端降水。
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Increasing WNP tropical cyclone-related extreme precipitation over East Asia during boreal summer associated with PDO shift

Over the past two decades, there has been a significant shift in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin during the boreal summer. Our analysis of data spanning from 1979 to 2021 reveals significant shifts in the WNP TC characteristics and rainfall pattern variation. To deepen our understanding of TC-related precipitation dynamics, we expressly address the difference between TC-related core precipitation (TCP) and remote precipitation (TRP). The results show that TRP significantly impacts the East Asian (EA) continent, especially on the Korean Peninsula. Notably, TCP exhibits decadal variability, with a pronounced negative correlation identified between it and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) following a strong climate shift. This pivotal shift was marked by the PDO first transitioning to its negative phase in 1997, a notable change since 1979, resulting in a marked increase in TC-related extreme rainfall over the EA area. Concurrently, the rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the WNP have intensified the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) circulation. The easterly steering flow associated with the WPSH then strengthened, leading to the continental migration of TC trajectories, thereby intensifying TC-related extreme precipitation.

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来源期刊
Weather and Climate Extremes
Weather and Climate Extremes Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.50%
发文量
102
审稿时长
33 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather and Climate Extremes Target Audience: Academics Decision makers International development agencies Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) Civil society Focus Areas: Research in weather and climate extremes Monitoring and early warning systems Assessment of vulnerability and impacts Developing and implementing intervention policies Effective risk management and adaptation practices Engagement of local communities in adopting coping strategies Information and communication strategies tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances
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