Does a more compact urban center layout matter in reducing household carbon emissions? Evidence from Chinese cities

In recent years, compact urban development and carbon emissions reduction have been considered essential approaches for achieving sustainable development goals worldwide. Existing research has focused on the correlation between urban spatial structure and carbon emissions with inconsistent results. This study explores the correlation between urban compactness and household CO₂ emissions. Two indices of urban compactness and four categories of household CO₂ emissions are constructed. We utilize Spatial Durbin Models (SDM) and Spatial Autoregressive Models (SAC) on panel data from over 284 cities at the prefecture level and above in China, spanning 2008–2018. The results indicate that, except for heating consumption, household CO₂ emissions exhibit positive associations with two urban compactness indices. These findings suggest that a city with evenly developed urban cores within a relatively smaller urban area may have better household CO₂ emissions efficiency both locally and regionally. Our study contributes to the existing literature on the sustainability of compact city development with new evidence emphasizing a condensed but balanced urban structure.