Association between four insulin resistance surrogates and the risk of esophageal cancer: a prospective cohort study using the UK Biobank.

Purpose: This study explored the association between triglyceride-glucose (TyG), TyG index with body mass index (TyG-BMI), triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDL-C), metabolic score for insulin resistance (IR) (METS-IR) and the risk of esophageal cancer.

Methods: A total of 388,900 participants from the United Kingdom Biobank from 2006 to 2010 were included. Fine-Gray models, restricted cubic spline (RCS), and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the association between the four IR surrogates and the risk of esophageal cancer, specifically, esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Results: Ten years after recruitment, 0.16% (95%CI 0.11-0.26%) had esophageal cancer and 4.17% (95%CI 3.86-4.46%) are deceased. For each standard deviation increase in the TyG index, TyG-BMI, TG/HDL-C, and METS-IR, the risk of EAC increased by Hazard ratios (HR)1.16, 1.37, 1.08, and 1.36, respectively (all P < 0.05), while the risk of ESCC decreased by HRs 0.80, 0.67, 0.77, and 0.65, respectively. RCS analysis indicated that most relationships were nonlinear (P < 0.05). ROC curves showed that METS-IR had a more robust diagnostic efficacy than TyG, TyG-BMI, and TG/HDL-C.

Conclusion: TyG index, TyG-BMI, TG/HDL-C, and METS-IR were closely associated with the risk of EAC and ESCC. Additionally, METS-IR surpassed the other three IR indices in predicting and diagnosing the risks of EAC and ESCC. The METS-IR is expected to become a more effective metric for identifying populations at early risk of esophageal cancer and for improving risk stratification.