规划可靠的风能和太阳能发电系统

IF 13 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI:10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100185
{"title":"规划可靠的风能和太阳能发电系统","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100185","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Resource adequacy, or ensuring that electricity supply reliably meets demand, is more challenging for wind- and solar-based electricity systems than fossil-fuel-based ones. Here, we investigate how the number of years of past weather data used in designing least-cost systems relying on wind, solar, and energy storage affects resource adequacy. We find that nearly 40 years of weather data are required to plan highly reliable systems (e.g., zero lost load over a decade). In comparison, this same adequacy could be attained with 15 years of weather data when additionally allowing traditional dispatchable generation to supply 5 % of electricity demand. We further observe that the marginal cost of improving resource adequacy increased as more years, and thus more weather variability, were considered for planning. Our results suggest that ensuring the reliability of wind- and solar-based systems will require using considerably more weather data in system planning than is the current practice. However, when considering the potential costs associated with unmet electricity demand, fewer planning years may suffice to balance costs against operational reliability.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":34615,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Energy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":13.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666792424000234/pdfft?md5=a1828cdb491a3fbda3e3e4a773b1bcba&pid=1-s2.0-S2666792424000234-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Planning reliable wind- and solar-based electricity systems\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100185\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Resource adequacy, or ensuring that electricity supply reliably meets demand, is more challenging for wind- and solar-based electricity systems than fossil-fuel-based ones. Here, we investigate how the number of years of past weather data used in designing least-cost systems relying on wind, solar, and energy storage affects resource adequacy. We find that nearly 40 years of weather data are required to plan highly reliable systems (e.g., zero lost load over a decade). In comparison, this same adequacy could be attained with 15 years of weather data when additionally allowing traditional dispatchable generation to supply 5 % of electricity demand. We further observe that the marginal cost of improving resource adequacy increased as more years, and thus more weather variability, were considered for planning. Our results suggest that ensuring the reliability of wind- and solar-based systems will require using considerably more weather data in system planning than is the current practice. However, when considering the potential costs associated with unmet electricity demand, fewer planning years may suffice to balance costs against operational reliability.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":34615,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Advances in Applied Energy\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":13.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666792424000234/pdfft?md5=a1828cdb491a3fbda3e3e4a773b1bcba&pid=1-s2.0-S2666792424000234-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Advances in Applied Energy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666792424000234\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Advances in Applied Energy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666792424000234","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

资源充足性,即确保电力供应可靠地满足需求,对于风能和太阳能发电系统来说比化石燃料发电系统更具挑战性。在此,我们研究了在设计依靠风能、太阳能和储能的最低成本系统时,过去气象数据的年数对资源充足性的影响。我们发现,需要近 40 年的天气数据才能规划出高度可靠的系统(例如,十年内零负荷损失)。相比之下,如果允许传统的可调度发电供应 5% 的电力需求,则只需 15 年的气象数据即可达到同样的充足性。我们进一步观察到,随着规划考虑的年份越多,天气变异性越大,提高资源充足性的边际成本也就越高。我们的研究结果表明,要确保风能和太阳能系统的可靠性,就需要在系统规划中使用比目前多得多的天气数据。然而,如果考虑到与未满足电力需求相关的潜在成本,较少的规划年可能就足以平衡成本与运行可靠性之间的关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

摘要图片

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Planning reliable wind- and solar-based electricity systems

Resource adequacy, or ensuring that electricity supply reliably meets demand, is more challenging for wind- and solar-based electricity systems than fossil-fuel-based ones. Here, we investigate how the number of years of past weather data used in designing least-cost systems relying on wind, solar, and energy storage affects resource adequacy. We find that nearly 40 years of weather data are required to plan highly reliable systems (e.g., zero lost load over a decade). In comparison, this same adequacy could be attained with 15 years of weather data when additionally allowing traditional dispatchable generation to supply 5 % of electricity demand. We further observe that the marginal cost of improving resource adequacy increased as more years, and thus more weather variability, were considered for planning. Our results suggest that ensuring the reliability of wind- and solar-based systems will require using considerably more weather data in system planning than is the current practice. However, when considering the potential costs associated with unmet electricity demand, fewer planning years may suffice to balance costs against operational reliability.

求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Advances in Applied Energy
Advances in Applied Energy Energy-General Energy
CiteScore
23.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
36
审稿时长
21 days
期刊最新文献
Digitalization of urban multi-energy systems – Advances in digital twin applications across life-cycle phases Multi-scale electricity consumption prediction model based on land use and interpretable machine learning: A case study of China Green light for bidirectional charging? Unveiling grid repercussions and life cycle impacts MANGOever: An optimization framework for the long-term planning and operations of integrated electric vehicle and building energy systems Reviewing the complexity of endogenous technological learning for energy system modeling
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1