规划可靠的风能和太阳能发电系统

IF 13 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI:10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100185
Tyler H. Ruggles , Edgar Virgüez , Natasha Reich , Jacqueline Dowling , Hannah Bloomfield , Enrico G.A. Antonini , Steven J. Davis , Nathan S. Lewis , Ken Caldeira
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引用次数: 0

摘要

资源充足性,即确保电力供应可靠地满足需求,对于风能和太阳能发电系统来说比化石燃料发电系统更具挑战性。在此,我们研究了在设计依靠风能、太阳能和储能的最低成本系统时,过去气象数据的年数对资源充足性的影响。我们发现,需要近 40 年的天气数据才能规划出高度可靠的系统(例如,十年内零负荷损失)。相比之下,如果允许传统的可调度发电供应 5% 的电力需求,则只需 15 年的气象数据即可达到同样的充足性。我们进一步观察到,随着规划考虑的年份越多,天气变异性越大,提高资源充足性的边际成本也就越高。我们的研究结果表明,要确保风能和太阳能系统的可靠性,就需要在系统规划中使用比目前多得多的天气数据。然而,如果考虑到与未满足电力需求相关的潜在成本,较少的规划年可能就足以平衡成本与运行可靠性之间的关系。
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Planning reliable wind- and solar-based electricity systems

Resource adequacy, or ensuring that electricity supply reliably meets demand, is more challenging for wind- and solar-based electricity systems than fossil-fuel-based ones. Here, we investigate how the number of years of past weather data used in designing least-cost systems relying on wind, solar, and energy storage affects resource adequacy. We find that nearly 40 years of weather data are required to plan highly reliable systems (e.g., zero lost load over a decade). In comparison, this same adequacy could be attained with 15 years of weather data when additionally allowing traditional dispatchable generation to supply 5 % of electricity demand. We further observe that the marginal cost of improving resource adequacy increased as more years, and thus more weather variability, were considered for planning. Our results suggest that ensuring the reliability of wind- and solar-based systems will require using considerably more weather data in system planning than is the current practice. However, when considering the potential costs associated with unmet electricity demand, fewer planning years may suffice to balance costs against operational reliability.

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来源期刊
Advances in Applied Energy
Advances in Applied Energy Energy-General Energy
CiteScore
23.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
36
审稿时长
21 days
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