Trend in the epidemiological risk of leprosy in the state of Goiás-Brazil between 2010 and 2021.

Objective: To analyze trends in epidemiological risk of leprosy in Goiás state, Brazil, and its health macro-regions, between 2010 and 2021.

Method: This is a time series analysis of the composite leprosy epidemiological risk index in Goiás. We used cases held on the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System for calculating indicators separately and risk, classified as high, medium, low and very low. Trends were analyzed using Prais-Winsten linear regression and risk maps were produced.

Results: Goiás showed high leprosy endemicity (24.8 cases/100,000 inhabitants) and medium epidemiological risk between 2019 and 2021 (0.58). A stationary trend was found (annual percentage change, 0.50; 95% confidence interval, -3.04; 4.16) for risk of leprosy in Goiás as a whole and in its Central-West and Central-Southeast macro-regions.

Conclusion: There is need for actions to reduce the epidemiological risk of leprosy, especially where its trend is stationary, this includes early screening for new cases and health education.

Main results: Leprosy persists in Goiás state, Brazil, in an endemic form, with heterogeneous distribution. There has been a reduction in the number of municipalities with high epidemiological risk of leprosy, but challenges include active transmission and late diagnosis.

Implications for services: Long-term strategies for prevention, early detection, treatment and monitoring of people with leprosy and their contacts are needed.

Perspectives: It is crucial to strengthen health policies targeting leprosy in Goiás state, prioritizing continuing education and training programs for health professionals working in the entire territory.