尽管人口减少,但经济长期增长

IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI:10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104943
Holger Strulik
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引用次数: 0

摘要

当经济增长由新思想的发现驱动,而体力劳动是思想生产的投入时,人口减少必然导致生活水平的停滞。在此,我将重新考虑当思想由受过教育的劳动力生产时的人口下降问题,并证明思想和收入的稳定正增长是一个合理的结果。原因在于人力资本的积累抵消了人口增长的负面影响。在一个教育回报递减的一般均衡模型中,我证明了家庭为维持高经济增长所需的持续教育努力。
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Long-run economic growth despite population decline

When economic growth is driven by the discovery of new ideas and physical labor is the input in ideas production, population decline inevitably leads to the stagnation of living standards. Here, I reconsider the problem of declining population when ideas are produced by an educated workforce and show that steady positive growth of ideas and income is a plausible outcome. The reason is that the accumulation of human capital offsets the negative effects of population growth. In a general equilibrium model with diminishing returns to education, I show that households generate the constant education effort needed to sustain high economic growth.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
10.50%
发文量
199
期刊介绍: The journal provides an outlet for publication of research concerning all theoretical and empirical aspects of economic dynamics and control as well as the development and use of computational methods in economics and finance. Contributions regarding computational methods may include, but are not restricted to, artificial intelligence, databases, decision support systems, genetic algorithms, modelling languages, neural networks, numerical algorithms for optimization, control and equilibria, parallel computing and qualitative reasoning.
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