Predicting future adoption of early-stage innovations for smart farming: A case study investigating critical factors influencing use of smart feeder technology for potential delivery of methane inhibitors in pasture-grazed dairy systems

Globally, livestock farmers are challenged with reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change. A potential option for pasture-based dairy farmers involves including methane-inhibiting compounds in the diet. A novel approach to deliver these compounds with the required frequency and precision is via smart-feeders, an existing smart farming technology used to feed supplements automatically to animals in-paddock. For this innovation to be successful, however, it must integrate with farm systems and provide farmers with a positive value proposition. The aim of this study was to examine the farm system and technology factors influencing potential uptake of in-paddock smart technologies for delivering methane inhibitors in pasture-grazed systems. We utilized an adoption prediction tool (ADOPT) to model the adoption outcomes of smart-feeders as methane inhibitor delivery mechanisms on dairy farms, with input from industry experts and farmers via focus groups. The results indicated low adoption of smart-feeders in a pasture-based system context. This was further explored with a sensitivity analysis of seven critical ADOPT factors which were identified as influential through the farmer focus groups. We modelled the impact of the seven critical ADOPT factors for two smart-feeder concepts to evaluate their relative adoption potential. The adoption modelling showed that while factors such as technology cost and function were important, adoption would also be highly influenced by future regulation settings, innovation uncertainty, and the alignment with farmer values and worldviews about their farm system. This research highlighted that in-paddock delivery technology, and processes for its use on-farm, represents an early-stage innovation and therefore is vital that farmers and other stakeholders are involved in further development to ensure adoption factors are addressed.