Eva Preinfalk , Birgit Bednar-Friedl , Jakob Mayer , Christian Lauk , Andreas Mayer
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引用次数: 0
摘要
作为温室气体(GHG)的主要排放源,农业和食品(农业食品)系统具有巨大的碳储存潜力,在实现全球升温远低于 2 °C 的巴黎目标方面发挥着双重作用。在此背景下,本文评估了奥地利农业食品系统在生物物理上可行的转型的减排潜力、经济效应、共同利益和权衡。通过将生物物理核算与比较静态多部门可计算一般均衡模型相结合,我们对供应方和需求方驱动的转型方案进行了评估。这些情景将导致奥地利农业食品体系发生重大变化,与 2050 年的参考路径相比,温室气体排放量可减少 70% 至 110%,农业生产方式的排放强度降低,植树造林的汇增加。三种方案中有两种方案导致的整体经济成本最高可达国内生产总值的 1%。尽管这些宏观经济规模上的变化很小,但对奥地利农业食品行业的产出影响却很大,就行业收入而言,以植物为基础的初级产品生产和制造业成为赢家,而以动物为基础的初级产品生产和制造业则是输家。所考虑的农业食品系统转型可带来健康方面的共同利益,但也揭示了减缓潜力、生物多样性保护和经济效应之间的权衡。
Sustainability transitions in the agri-food system: Evaluating mitigation potentials, economy-wide effects, co-benefits and trade-offs for the case of Austria
As a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and with a substantial potential of carbon storage, agriculture and food (agri-food) systems play a two-fold role in achieving the Paris goal of well below 2 °C of global warming. Against this background, this paper assesses the mitigation potentials, economic effects, co-benefits and trade-offs of biophysically feasible transitions of the Austrian agri-food system. By combining biophysical accounting with a comparative-static multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model, we assess both supply- and demand-side driven transition scenarios. These scenarios entail substantial changes in the Austrian agri-food system, mitigating between 70 and 110% of GHG emissions relative to the reference pathway in 2050, with lower emission intensities from agricultural practices and enhanced sinks through afforestation. Two out of three scenarios lead to economy-wide costs of up to 1% of gross domestic product. Despite these small changes at the macroeconomic scale, output effects within the Austrian agri-food sectors are substantial, with primary production and manufacturing of plant-based products emerging as winners in terms of sectoral revenue, while animal-based primary production and manufacturing lose. The agri-food system transitions considered create health co-benefits, but reveal trade-offs between mitigation potentials, biodiversity conservation and economic effects.
期刊介绍:
Ecological Economics is concerned with extending and integrating the understanding of the interfaces and interplay between "nature''s household" (ecosystems) and "humanity''s household" (the economy). Ecological economics is an interdisciplinary field defined by a set of concrete problems or challenges related to governing economic activity in a way that promotes human well-being, sustainability, and justice. The journal thus emphasizes critical work that draws on and integrates elements of ecological science, economics, and the analysis of values, behaviors, cultural practices, institutional structures, and societal dynamics. The journal is transdisciplinary in spirit and methodologically open, drawing on the insights offered by a variety of intellectual traditions, and appealing to a diverse readership.
Specific research areas covered include: valuation of natural resources, sustainable agriculture and development, ecologically integrated technology, integrated ecologic-economic modelling at scales from local to regional to global, implications of thermodynamics for economics and ecology, renewable resource management and conservation, critical assessments of the basic assumptions underlying current economic and ecological paradigms and the implications of alternative assumptions, economic and ecological consequences of genetically engineered organisms, and gene pool inventory and management, alternative principles for valuing natural wealth, integrating natural resources and environmental services into national income and wealth accounts, methods of implementing efficient environmental policies, case studies of economic-ecologic conflict or harmony, etc. New issues in this area are rapidly emerging and will find a ready forum in Ecological Economics.