Meng-Yuan Shou, Nan Zheng, Yi-Xiao Liu, Xiao-Yu Wu, Rou-Rou Fang, Na Sun
{"title":"[1990-2019年中国男性泌尿生殖系统肿瘤疾病负担变化：未来趋势预测分析]。","authors":"Meng-Yuan Shou, Nan Zheng, Yi-Xiao Liu, Xiao-Yu Wu, Rou-Rou Fang, Na Sun","doi":"","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To analyze the changes in the disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers among urinary and reproductive system tumors in Chinese men from 1990 to 2019 with a prediction of the future trend.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We retrieved the data on the incidence, mortality and disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men between 1990 and 2019 from the database of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Using the Joinpoint regression model, we analyzed the trend of changes in the disease burden, and predicted the prevalence of the tumors with the ARIMA model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence and prevalence of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers were on the rise in Chinese men, and those of testis cancer increased most significantly, by 326.79% and 1070.93% respectively. The disease burden of PCa was the highest, with standardized incidence, prevalence and mortality ratios of 17.34/100 000, 117.65/100 000 and 7.79/100 000 respectively in 2019. The standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of kidney cancer were increased by 103.59% and 103.17% respectively. The highest incidence, mortality and DALY of prostate, kidney and bladder cancers in 2019 were found in 90－94 years old males, the highest prevalence rates of prostate, kidney and bladder cancers in the 70－89-year-olds, and the highest prevalence of testis cancer in the 25－49-year-olds. ARIMA model prediction showed that the standardized incidence rates of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men kept rising from 2020 to 2029.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men is on the rise, and their standardized incidence rates will be even higher by 2029, with a significant increase in the disease burden in young men, which suggests the need of more attention to the prevention and treatment of genitourinary system tumors in young males.</p>","PeriodicalId":24012,"journal":{"name":"中华男科学杂志","volume":"30 5","pages":"397-403"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"[Changes in the disease burden of male urinary and reproductive system tumors in China from 1990 to 2019: Analysis with a prediction of the future trend].\",\"authors\":\"Meng-Yuan Shou, Nan Zheng, Yi-Xiao Liu, Xiao-Yu Wu, Rou-Rou Fang, Na Sun\",\"doi\":\"\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To analyze the changes in the disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers among urinary and reproductive system tumors in Chinese men from 1990 to 2019 with a prediction of the future trend.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We retrieved the data on the incidence, mortality and disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men between 1990 and 2019 from the database of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Using the Joinpoint regression model, we analyzed the trend of changes in the disease burden, and predicted the prevalence of the tumors with the ARIMA model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence and prevalence of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers were on the rise in Chinese men, and those of testis cancer increased most significantly, by 326.79% and 1070.93% respectively. The disease burden of PCa was the highest, with standardized incidence, prevalence and mortality ratios of 17.34/100 000, 117.65/100 000 and 7.79/100 000 respectively in 2019. The standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of kidney cancer were increased by 103.59% and 103.17% respectively. The highest incidence, mortality and DALY of prostate, kidney and bladder cancers in 2019 were found in 90－94 years old males, the highest prevalence rates of prostate, kidney and bladder cancers in the 70－89-year-olds, and the highest prevalence of testis cancer in the 25－49-year-olds. ARIMA model prediction showed that the standardized incidence rates of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men kept rising from 2020 to 2029.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men is on the rise, and their standardized incidence rates will be even higher by 2029, with a significant increase in the disease burden in young men, which suggests the need of more attention to the prevention and treatment of genitourinary system tumors in young males.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":24012,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"中华男科学杂志\",\"volume\":\"30 5\",\"pages\":\"397-403\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"中华男科学杂志\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"Medicine\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"中华男科学杂志","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"Medicine","Score":null,"Total":0}
[Changes in the disease burden of male urinary and reproductive system tumors in China from 1990 to 2019: Analysis with a prediction of the future trend].
Objective: To analyze the changes in the disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers among urinary and reproductive system tumors in Chinese men from 1990 to 2019 with a prediction of the future trend.
Methods: We retrieved the data on the incidence, mortality and disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men between 1990 and 2019 from the database of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Using the Joinpoint regression model, we analyzed the trend of changes in the disease burden, and predicted the prevalence of the tumors with the ARIMA model.
Results: From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence and prevalence of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers were on the rise in Chinese men, and those of testis cancer increased most significantly, by 326.79% and 1070.93% respectively. The disease burden of PCa was the highest, with standardized incidence, prevalence and mortality ratios of 17.34/100 000, 117.65/100 000 and 7.79/100 000 respectively in 2019. The standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of kidney cancer were increased by 103.59% and 103.17% respectively. The highest incidence, mortality and DALY of prostate, kidney and bladder cancers in 2019 were found in 90－94 years old males, the highest prevalence rates of prostate, kidney and bladder cancers in the 70－89-year-olds, and the highest prevalence of testis cancer in the 25－49-year-olds. ARIMA model prediction showed that the standardized incidence rates of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men kept rising from 2020 to 2029.
Conclusion: The disease burden of prostate, testis, kidney and bladder cancers in Chinese men is on the rise, and their standardized incidence rates will be even higher by 2029, with a significant increase in the disease burden in young men, which suggests the need of more attention to the prevention and treatment of genitourinary system tumors in young males.
期刊介绍：
National journal of andrology was founded in June 1995. It is a core journal of andrology and reproductive medicine, published monthly, and is publicly distributed at home and abroad. The main columns include expert talks, monographs (basic research, clinical research, evidence-based medicine, traditional Chinese medicine), reviews, clinical experience exchanges, case reports, etc. Priority is given to various fund-funded projects, especially the 12th Five-Year National Support Plan and the National Natural Science Foundation funded projects. This journal is included in about 20 domestic databases, including the National Science and Technology Paper Statistical Source Journal (China Science and Technology Core Journal), the Source Journal of the China Science Citation Database, the Statistical Source Journal of the China Academic Journal Comprehensive Evaluation Database (CAJCED), the Full-text Collection Journal of the China Journal Full-text Database (CJFD), the Overview of the Chinese Core Journals (2017 Edition), and the Source Journal of the Top Academic Papers of China's Fine Science and Technology Journals (F5000). It has been included in the full text of the American Chemical Abstracts, the American MEDLINE, the American EBSCO, and the database.
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