Development and application of a comprehensive evaluation index system for groundwater quality evolution patterns

In recent years, driven by rapid socio-economic development and intensified human activities, the groundwater quality has exhibited a concerning trend of degradation. The challenge lies in integrating the impacts of both natural and anthropogenic factors to establish a scientific evaluation framework for the evolution of groundwater quality. This study adopts the model of driving forces – pressures – state – impacts – responses (DPSIR) proposed by the European Environment Agency, in conjunction with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Information Entropy Theory (IET), and the Water Quality Index (WQI) evaluation methods, to construct an evaluation index system for groundwater quality evolution that encompasses driving forces, state, and response systems. Initially, twelve indicators relevant to groundwater quality are quantified by screening across three systems, and a functional relationship between the categorization and scoring of each indicator is established. Subsequently, the weights for each system and indicator are obtained through the AHP, and the objective weights of the indicators are determined using the IET. The scores of each indicator are then comprehensively calculated. Finally, based on the defined types of groundwater quality evolution patterns, an integrated assessment of the evolution of groundwater quality over various time periods is conducted. Taking the Shijiazhuang region as a case study and analyzing the hydrochemical data of groundwater from 1985 to 2015, the results indicate a shift in the groundwater quality evolution pattern from one dominated by natural factors to one primarily influenced by human activities (The comprehensive score of the evaluation index system has increased from 1.84 to 3.25). Among these, the application of fertilizers emerges as the most important driving factors affecting groundwater quality. Particularly, nitrate and total hardness (TH) have emerged as the most salient indicators of quality degradation, with a significant escalation in their composite scores. At the outset, nitrate registered a score of 0.408, while TH scored 0.326; yet, these values have sharply ascended to 0.716 and 0.467, respectively, by the advanced stage. The study concludes with a discussion on the accuracy, strengths, limitations, and applicability of the evaluation index system. The establishment of this evaluation framework provides a scientific basis for the management and protection of groundwater resources and serves as a reference for identifying groundwater quality evolution patterns in other regions.