The relationships between Urban Tree Canopy Cover and Crime in São Paulo City, Brazil

Prior research has indicated lower crime rates in areas with greater tree canopy cover predominantly in the Global North. There are few studies from the Global South, and more specifically in Latin America. Given the high prevalence of crime in Latin American cities, the need to address social and environmental inequalities using nature-based solutions is urgent. This study examines crime and tree canopy cover through a series of spatial analyses for São Paulo city, Brazil, while controlling for potential confounders. We tested six levels of data aggregation that were combined with three different crime types and two denominators of crime, to account for spurious findings from Modifiable Areal Unit Problems (MAUP). Of the 36 models, a majority of 27 models (75 %) indicate a negative relationship between crime and tree cover canopy, while 4 models (11 %) show a positive correlation, and 5 models (14 %) suggest no statistically significant relationship. Our best models allow us to infer that 10 % greater tree canopy cover is associated with a 1.20 % fewer property, personal and total reported crimes, with statistical significance at the p < 0.001 level. These findings support our hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between tree canopy cover and crime, with a stronger association observed for property crime than personal or total crime. The negative relationship persisted independently of the level of data aggregation, crime types, crime denominator and spatial models specifications (lag and SARMA), avoiding statistical bias of MAUP. The results follow the literature that have observed tree cover associated with lower crime rates, for different types of crime, while adding a new climatic and cultural context to the evidence base.