Prof Dann Mitchell PhD , Y T Eunice Lo PhD , Emily Ball PhD , Joanne L Godwin PhD , Oliver Andrews PhD , Prof Rosa Barciela PhD , Prof Lea Berrang Ford PhD , Claudia Di Napoli PhD , Prof Kristie L Ebi PhD , Neven S Fučkar PhD , Prof Antonio Gasparrini PhD , Prof Brian Golding PhD , Celia L Gregson MRCP PhD , Gareth J Griffith PhD , Sara Khalid PhD , Caitlin Robinson PhD , Prof Daniela N Schmidt PhD , Charles H Simpson PhD , Prof Sir Robert Stephen John Sparks PhD , Josephine G Walker PhD
{"title":"专家判断揭示了英国当前和新出现的气候死亡负担","authors":"Prof Dann Mitchell PhD , Y T Eunice Lo PhD , Emily Ball PhD , Joanne L Godwin PhD , Oliver Andrews PhD , Prof Rosa Barciela PhD , Prof Lea Berrang Ford PhD , Claudia Di Napoli PhD , Prof Kristie L Ebi PhD , Neven S Fučkar PhD , Prof Antonio Gasparrini PhD , Prof Brian Golding PhD , Celia L Gregson MRCP PhD , Gareth J Griffith PhD , Sara Khalid PhD , Caitlin Robinson PhD , Prof Daniela N Schmidt PhD , Charles H Simpson PhD , Prof Sir Robert Stephen John Sparks PhD , Josephine G Walker PhD","doi":"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00175-X","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Weather and climate patterns play an intrinsic role in societal health, yet a comprehensive synthesis of specific hazard–mortality causes does not currently exist. Country-level health burdens are thus highly uncertain, but harnessing collective expert knowledge can reduce this uncertainty, and help assess diverse mortality causes beyond what is explicitly quantified. Here, surveying 30 experts, we provide the first structured expert judgement of how weather and climate directly impact mortality, using the UK as an example. Current weather-related mortality is dominated by short-term exposure to hot and cold temperatures leading to cardiovascular and respiratory failure. We find additional underappreciated health outcomes, especially related to long-exposure hazards, including heat-related renal disease, cold-related musculoskeletal health, and infectious diseases from compound hazards. We show potential future worsening of cause-specific mortality, including mental health from flooding or heat, and changes in infectious diseases. Ultimately, this work could serve to develop an expert-based understanding of the climate-related health burden in other countries.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48548,"journal":{"name":"Lancet Planetary Health","volume":"8 9","pages":"Pages e684-e694"},"PeriodicalIF":24.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S254251962400175X/pdfft?md5=9be276f4cbdb8fd11684479cd18fb136&pid=1-s2.0-S254251962400175X-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Expert judgement reveals current and emerging UK climate-mortality burden\",\"authors\":\"Prof Dann Mitchell PhD , Y T Eunice Lo PhD , Emily Ball PhD , Joanne L Godwin PhD , Oliver Andrews PhD , Prof Rosa Barciela PhD , Prof Lea Berrang Ford PhD , Claudia Di Napoli PhD , Prof Kristie L Ebi PhD , Neven S Fučkar PhD , Prof Antonio Gasparrini PhD , Prof Brian Golding PhD , Celia L Gregson MRCP PhD , Gareth J Griffith PhD , Sara Khalid PhD , Caitlin Robinson PhD , Prof Daniela N Schmidt PhD , Charles H Simpson PhD , Prof Sir Robert Stephen John Sparks PhD , Josephine G Walker PhD\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00175-X\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Weather and climate patterns play an intrinsic role in societal health, yet a comprehensive synthesis of specific hazard–mortality causes does not currently exist. Country-level health burdens are thus highly uncertain, but harnessing collective expert knowledge can reduce this uncertainty, and help assess diverse mortality causes beyond what is explicitly quantified. Here, surveying 30 experts, we provide the first structured expert judgement of how weather and climate directly impact mortality, using the UK as an example. Current weather-related mortality is dominated by short-term exposure to hot and cold temperatures leading to cardiovascular and respiratory failure. We find additional underappreciated health outcomes, especially related to long-exposure hazards, including heat-related renal disease, cold-related musculoskeletal health, and infectious diseases from compound hazards. We show potential future worsening of cause-specific mortality, including mental health from flooding or heat, and changes in infectious diseases. 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Expert judgement reveals current and emerging UK climate-mortality burden
Weather and climate patterns play an intrinsic role in societal health, yet a comprehensive synthesis of specific hazard–mortality causes does not currently exist. Country-level health burdens are thus highly uncertain, but harnessing collective expert knowledge can reduce this uncertainty, and help assess diverse mortality causes beyond what is explicitly quantified. Here, surveying 30 experts, we provide the first structured expert judgement of how weather and climate directly impact mortality, using the UK as an example. Current weather-related mortality is dominated by short-term exposure to hot and cold temperatures leading to cardiovascular and respiratory failure. We find additional underappreciated health outcomes, especially related to long-exposure hazards, including heat-related renal disease, cold-related musculoskeletal health, and infectious diseases from compound hazards. We show potential future worsening of cause-specific mortality, including mental health from flooding or heat, and changes in infectious diseases. Ultimately, this work could serve to develop an expert-based understanding of the climate-related health burden in other countries.
期刊介绍:
The Lancet Planetary Health is a gold Open Access journal dedicated to investigating and addressing the multifaceted determinants of healthy human civilizations and their impact on natural systems. Positioned as a key player in sustainable development, the journal covers a broad, interdisciplinary scope, encompassing areas such as poverty, nutrition, gender equity, water and sanitation, energy, economic growth, industrialization, inequality, urbanization, human consumption and production, climate change, ocean health, land use, peace, and justice.
With a commitment to publishing high-quality research, comment, and correspondence, it aims to be the leading journal for sustainable development in the face of unprecedented dangers and threats.