专家判断揭示了英国当前和新出现的气候死亡负担

IF 24.1 1区 医学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Lancet Planetary Health Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00175-X
Prof Dann Mitchell PhD , Y T Eunice Lo PhD , Emily Ball PhD , Joanne L Godwin PhD , Oliver Andrews PhD , Prof Rosa Barciela PhD , Prof Lea Berrang Ford PhD , Claudia Di Napoli PhD , Prof Kristie L Ebi PhD , Neven S Fučkar PhD , Prof Antonio Gasparrini PhD , Prof Brian Golding PhD , Celia L Gregson MRCP PhD , Gareth J Griffith PhD , Sara Khalid PhD , Caitlin Robinson PhD , Prof Daniela N Schmidt PhD , Charles H Simpson PhD , Prof Sir Robert Stephen John Sparks PhD , Josephine G Walker PhD
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引用次数: 0

摘要

天气和气候模式对社会健康起着固有的作用,但目前还没有对具体的灾害-死亡原因进行全面综合。因此,国家层面的健康负担具有高度不确定性,但利用专家的集体知识可以减少这种不确定性,并有助于评估明确量化之外的各种死亡原因。在此,我们以英国为例,对 30 位专家进行了调查,首次提供了关于天气和气候如何直接影响死亡率的结构化专家判断。目前与天气相关的死亡率主要是短期暴露于高温和低温导致的心血管和呼吸系统衰竭。我们还发现了更多未被重视的健康后果,尤其是与长期暴露的危害有关的健康后果,包括与热有关的肾病、与冷有关的肌肉骨骼健康以及复合危害引起的传染病。我们显示了未来特定病因死亡率的潜在恶化,包括洪水或高温导致的心理健康以及传染病的变化。最终,这项工作将有助于专家了解其他国家与气候相关的健康负担。
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Expert judgement reveals current and emerging UK climate-mortality burden

Weather and climate patterns play an intrinsic role in societal health, yet a comprehensive synthesis of specific hazard–mortality causes does not currently exist. Country-level health burdens are thus highly uncertain, but harnessing collective expert knowledge can reduce this uncertainty, and help assess diverse mortality causes beyond what is explicitly quantified. Here, surveying 30 experts, we provide the first structured expert judgement of how weather and climate directly impact mortality, using the UK as an example. Current weather-related mortality is dominated by short-term exposure to hot and cold temperatures leading to cardiovascular and respiratory failure. We find additional underappreciated health outcomes, especially related to long-exposure hazards, including heat-related renal disease, cold-related musculoskeletal health, and infectious diseases from compound hazards. We show potential future worsening of cause-specific mortality, including mental health from flooding or heat, and changes in infectious diseases. Ultimately, this work could serve to develop an expert-based understanding of the climate-related health burden in other countries.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
28.40
自引率
2.30%
发文量
272
审稿时长
8 weeks
期刊介绍: The Lancet Planetary Health is a gold Open Access journal dedicated to investigating and addressing the multifaceted determinants of healthy human civilizations and their impact on natural systems. Positioned as a key player in sustainable development, the journal covers a broad, interdisciplinary scope, encompassing areas such as poverty, nutrition, gender equity, water and sanitation, energy, economic growth, industrialization, inequality, urbanization, human consumption and production, climate change, ocean health, land use, peace, and justice. With a commitment to publishing high-quality research, comment, and correspondence, it aims to be the leading journal for sustainable development in the face of unprecedented dangers and threats.
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