Data-driven prediction of rail neutral temperature for continuously welded rails using impulse-based vibration frequencies

Continuously welded rails (CWR) are prone to the development of high thermal-induced load along the axial direction. Excessive levels of load lead to risk of rail buckling and potential for derailment. Knowledge of the in situ rail axial load in CWRs is therefore important to ensure safe rail management. Field-deployable, nondestructive evaluation techniques for measuring the rail load, or a widely adopted alternative called rail neutral temperature (RNT), are desired. This study uses a data-driven approach to investigate if rail dynamic response data, collected in a non-destructive fashion, can be used to predict RNT. The study is based on a data set comprising rail equivalent strain, temperature and vibration resonance frequencies that was collected from a revenue-service rail over a period of nearly two years. All excited vibration resonance peaks are identified from other peaks caused by noise using spectral amplitude variance. Among these resonance peaks, potentially useful resonances are identified with respect to stacked spectra collected across a testing day using an assumed temperature-frequency relation. A subset of the identified useful resonances is then identified based on their consistent appearance across both testing locations and all testing days, strong correlation to effective strain, and strong correlation to each other. Three particular vibration resonances (or vibration modes -- these terms will be used interchangeably throughout this paper unless specified otherwise. The term mode does not necessarily indicate mode shapes or mode families.) emerge from this process as best candidates. A classic feature selection technique, Lasso linear regression, is then employed to identify critical power combinations of the three resonant mode frequencies. Two power combinations exhibit unique correlation to the measured equivalent axial strain at both test locations across all testing days, and thus show particular ability to predict RNT. The RNT is predicted at one test location using different models based on the power combination data from the other location, and vice versa, where the predictions satisfy standard RNT measurement accuracy expectations.