Trends in continuity of treatment among children and adolescents living with HIV in 14 districts in South Africa from 2018-2023: A retrospective program analysis

Objectives

UNAIDS estimates 152,984 children under 15 years living with HIV (C/ALHIV) by 2022 in South Africa. Monitoring the continuity of antiretroviral treatment remains challenging without electronic health records. We explored treatment cohort growth and interruption trends in 14-USAID-PEPFAR-supported districts.

Methods

We reviewed data from 2018 to 2023. We triangulated this data with NAOMI HIV estimates. We used Tableau version 2023.2 for analysis to understand heterogeneity in outcomes.

Results

HIV incidence halved from 4.3 per 1000 in 2017 to 2.5 per 1000 in 2022. HIV testing doubled: 188,371 in FY19Q1 to 399,708 in FY23Q4 while testing positivity declined from 3.3% to 0.7%. Linkage to treatment increased from 67% to 102%, viral suppression increased from 79% to 84%. C/ALHIV treatment cohort started at 82,897 in FY19Q1 and increased to 105,107 in FY20Q2. Subsequently, the cohort decreased to 79,288 in FY23Q4 despite 42,498 initiations and 62,256 returns.

Conclusions

The C/ALHIV treatment and viral suppression increased substantially commensurate with expected trends. Subsequent cohort decline was aligned to vertical transmission reduction, HIV incidence decline, and expected aging. We highlight the inadequacy of the information systems to quantify losses. We underscore a need for resources to enhance program monitoring and interventions to address this gap.