Climate change and commercial property markets

The economic effect of climate hazard events varies by time and by location. This paper investigates how climate shocks to local property markets transmit to capital markets and provides evidence of the extent to which forward-looking climate risk is capitalized into the public valuations of those property markets. We first quantify the exposure of real estate portfolios to locations that recently experienced climate events (Event Exposure). Using an event study framework, we find that, in the post-event period, a one-standard-deviation increase in ex-ante Event Exposure is associated with a 0.2–1.4 percentage points decrease in quarterly stock returns. Cross-sectional analyses reveal that differences in return effects can be explained by variation in the extent to which the area focuses on climate change. Similarly, we find that forward-looking climate risk assessment negatively affects firm valuations only in markets with a focus on climate change. Consistent with these findings, we provide evidence that climate events (shocks) induce retail investors (noise traders) to decrease their stock holdings and that blockholders tend to take the opposite side in these transactions. We also show that conditioning on consumer sentiment helps to explain cross-sectional variation in the response of stock returns to climate events.