Gianluigi Coppola, Sergio Destefanis, Mario Di Serio, Matteo Fragetta
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引用次数: 0
摘要
本文估算了 1960-2017 年间意大利 20 个行政区两类政府支出的乘数,并对扩张和衰退阶段进行了区分。我们通过非线性贝叶斯异质性面板阈值 VAR 模型得出了特定制度和地区的乘数,并提供了广泛的敏感性分析。我们发现,政府消费和政府投资乘数在衰退期均高于扩张期。几乎在每个地区,政府投资乘数在衰退阶段都超过了统一值,而且无论商业周期如何,政府投资乘数一般都高于政府消费乘数。对特定地区乘数的探索性分析表明,衰退期和扩张期特定地区乘数之间的差异与劳动力结构性松弛呈正相关,与贸易开放度呈负相关。与地方机构质量有关的因素,如腐败和非正规经济的相对规模,也会产生负面影响。
Fiscal multipliers in recession and expansion. An analysis for the Italian regions
This paper estimates the multipliers of two types of government spending in the 20 Italian administrative regions throughout 1960–2017, distinguishing between phases of expansion and recession. We derive regime- and region-specific multipliers through a nonlinear Bayesian heterogeneous panel threshold VAR model and provide a wide-ranging sensitivity analysis. We find that both government consumption and government investment multipliers are higher in recession than in expansion. In almost every region, government investment multipliers exceed unity in recession phases and are generally higher than their government consumption counterparts regardless of the business cycle. An exploratory analysis of the region-specific multipliers suggests that the difference between the region-specific multipliers in recession and expansion is positively associated with structural labour slack and negatively associated with trade openness. Factors related to the quality of local institutions, such as corruption and the relative size of the informal economy, also have a negative impact.
期刊介绍:
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics publishes articles about theoretical, applied and methodological aspects of structural change in economic systems. The journal publishes work analysing dynamics and structural breaks in economic, technological, behavioural and institutional patterns.