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引用次数: 0
摘要
本研究探讨了在人口稠密的大学校园内建造核电站(NPP)的可行性。核电站选址是一个复杂的过程,涉及众多相互关联的因素。为了应对这种复杂性,我们采用了系统动力学(SD)建模方法,该方法因其能够量化技术和社会方面而闻名。我们的模拟结果表明,公众接受度(PA)是选址的关键决定因素。在模拟的第四个月,PA 和非 PA 方案的模型值完全相同。然而,随后的模拟结果显示出明显的差异,PA 仿真值达到 85.398,而非 PA 仿真值为 24.240。这种差异凸显了 PA 在决策过程中的重要性。鉴于国家核电厂建设的时间较长,PA 与非 PA 结果之间的差距可能会进一步扩大,尤其是在公众对国家核电厂持积极态度的情况下。从本研究中获得的启示可应用于其他行业,如炼油厂,由于有毒气体泄漏可能造成大气污染,因此必须谨慎选址。
Implications of public acceptance assessments for site selections in the small modular reactors using system dynamics
This study investigates the feasibility of siting a nuclear power plant (NPP) within a densely populated university campus. Site selection for NPPs is a complex process involving numerous interconnected factors. To address this complexity, we employ system dynamics (SD) modeling, a methodology renowned for its ability to quantify both technological and social aspects. Our simulation results indicate that public acceptance (PA) is a critical determinant in site selection. In the fourth month of the simulation, the model's values were identical in both PA and non-PA scenarios. However, subsequent simulations revealed a significant divergence, with PA-implicated values reaching 85.398 compared to 24.240 in the non-PA scenario. This disparity underscores the primacy of PA in the decision-making process. Given the extended timeline of NPP construction, the gap between PA and non-PA outcomes is likely to widen further, particularly in the context of positive public sentiment toward the NPP. The insights gleaned from this research can be applied to other industries, such as oil refineries, where the potential for atmospheric pollution due to toxic gas leaks necessitates careful site selection.
期刊介绍:
Energy Strategy Reviews is a gold open access journal that provides authoritative content on strategic decision-making and vision-sharing related to society''s energy needs.
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