Near or distant time horizons? The determinants of the integration of long-term perspectives in disaster risk management evaluation

Disasters, disaster risks, and disaster risk management (DRM) present complex temporalities that must be taken into consideration when conducting evaluations that assist the choice of new strategies. Given the non-linearity of change, including long-term perspectives can modify the evaluation results and recommendations, but little is known about how time horizons are selected in DRM evaluation. This exploratory study investigates the determinants that affect what time horizon is considered in DRM evaluation. 12 semi-structured interviews with professional evaluators from different parts of the world were conducted in spring 2022. Their experiences indicate that the interpretation of what is long term in DRM evaluation is context-dependent. The factors determining if time horizons are expanded or narrowed relate to four categories: the actors involved in the evaluation, the purpose of the evaluation, the resources available to conduct the evaluation, and the specific DRM context. It is concluded that DRM evaluation seems to be quite similar to other public policy evaluations, except the DRM context that plays an important role by determining the timing of the evaluation, which itself affects what time horizon should be and/or is considered.