Sustainable development through urban agglomeration green and low-carbon logistics: efficiency insights from China’s urban agglomeration

Building a sustainable, efficient, and smart logistics system supports the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. This study’s aim is to assess the green low-carbon logistics efficiency (GLLE) across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban Agglomeration (BTHUA) from 2008 to 2022. By developing a robust measurement index system and employing a three-stage super-efficiency SBM-DEA model along with the Global Malmquist–Luenberger index, we comprehensively evaluated GLLE, examining regional variations and key influencing factors within the BTHUA. After conducting multicollinearity tests and correlation analyses on the relevant variables, panel Tobit models and semi-parametric estimation methods were utilized to identify and analyze the Driving Factors affecting the GLLE. The study reveals that the BTHUA has high GLLE, with regional efficiency varying due to various factors. Initial efficiency measurements are often too high and need adjustment. Technological advancements positively impact GLLE, but scaling up the logistics industry could reduce efficiency. Efficient resource allocation can counteract environmental inequalities’ economic effects. The study stresses the need to balance foreign investment and innovation with environmental and resource goals, providing new insights for green logistics and industry transformation.