What are the deep-level factors driving carbon emissions from energy consumption? A Meta-analysis

Given the severe global warming trend, analyzing carbon emissions causes is vital for crafting emission reduction policies. Countries prioritize sustainable development by shifting development modes, regulating population, and fostering renewable energy. Due to disparities in political, economic, and resource aspects among countries, the specific measures taken are various. From an academic perspective, clarifying carbon emission drivers and exploring deep-level factors becomes imperative. Existing research examines carbon emission factors through driver decomposition and analysis of factors influencing energy intensity and economic development. However, these studies operate independently, lacking systematic integration. Therefore, based on 159 articles on driver decomposition and 106 articles on drivers’ influencing factors, this paper uses systematic review and Meta-analysis to explore deep-level factors of carbon emission. The results find that economic development and energy intensity are the main drivers of carbon emission changes across countries, with median contributions ranging from 0.02 to 0.1 and − 0.05 to 0. Energy prices, technological innovation, service industry share, and financial development notably curb energy intensity and bolster economic development, ranging from 0.181 to 0.777 and 0.068 to 0.202, as the deep-level factors for carbon reduction. Urbanization, industrialization, gross capital formation, and fossil energy share significantly promote energy intensity and economic development, ranging from 0.105 to 0.216 and 0.044 to 0.286, as the deep-level factors for increasing carbon emissions. High-income countries’ service industry has a more adverse effect on carbon emissions than lower-income countries, and urbanization has a greater impact on emissions in lower-income countries. This study provides insights for global low-carbon development.