复杂地形下近地面风速网格预报的降尺度校正研究

IF 2.5 4区 地球科学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Atmosphere Pub Date : 2024-09-08 DOI:10.3390/atmos15091090
Xin Liu, Zhimin Li, Yanbo Shen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

准确的风速预报是提供精细化专业气象服务(如风能发电和交通运营等)的关键环节。本文利用2022年1月、4月、7月和10月的CMA-MESO模式预报资料和CARAS-SUR_1 km地面真实网格资料,采用随机森林算法,建立并评估了河北省西北部复杂地形区近地面1 km分辨率风速网格预报降尺度校正模型。结果表明,经过降尺度校正后,整个复杂地形研究区网格预报风速的空间分布更加精细,空间分辨率从 3 km 提高到 1 km,反映了精细尺度的地形效应。与原始模型相比,修正后的风速预报精度显著提高,预报误差在时间和空间上都表现出稳定性。平均偏差从 2.25 m/s 降至 0.02 m/s,均方根误差(RMSE)从 3.26 m/s 降至 0.52 m/s。复杂地形、预报准备时间和季节因素造成的预报误差明显减小。就风速类别而言,修正后的预报明显改善了风速低于 8 m/s 的预报,RMSE 从 2.02 m/s 降至 0.59 m/s。对于 8 米/秒以上的风速,校正效果也很好,均方根误差从 2.20 米/秒降至 1.65 米/秒。选择 2022 年 4 月 26 日张家口强风过程进行分析,发现降尺度校正后的预报风速与观测站和地面实况格点的观测风速非常接近。特别是在受强风影响的地区,如巴山高原和山谷,校正效果尤为显著,具有重要的参考价值。
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Study on Downscaling Correction of Near-Surface Wind Speed Grid Forecasts in Complex Terrain
Accurate forecasting of wind speeds is a crucial aspect of providing fine-scale professional meteorological services (such as wind energy generation and transportation operations etc.). This article utilizes CMA-MESO model forecast data and CARAS-SUR_1 km ground truth grid data from January, April, July, and October 2022, employing the random forest algorithm to establish and evaluate a downscaling correction model for near-surface 1 km resolution wind-speed grid forecast in the complex terrain area of northwestern Hebei Province. The results indicate that after downscaling correction, the spatial distribution of grid forecast wind speeds in the entire complex terrain study area becomes more refined, with spatial resolution improving from 3 km to 1 km, reflecting fine-scale terrain effects. The accuracy of the corrected wind speed forecast significantly improves compared to the original model, with forecast errors showing stability in both time and space. The mean bias decreases from 2.25 m/s to 0.02 m/s, and the root mean square error (RMSE) decreases from 3.26 m/s to 0.52 m/s. Forecast errors caused by complex terrain, forecast lead time, and seasonal factors are significantly reduced. In terms of wind speed categories, the correction significantly improves forecasts for wind speeds below 8 m/s, with RMSE decreasing from 2.02 m/s to 0.59 m/s. For wind speeds above 8 m/s, there is also a good correction effect, with RMSE decreasing from 2.20 m/s to 1.65 m/s. Selecting the analysis of the Zhangjiakou strong wind process on 26 April 2022, it was found that the downscaled corrected forecast wind speed is very close to the observed wind speed at the station and the ground truth grid points. The correction effect is particularly significant in areas affected by strong winds, such as the Bashang Plateau and valleys, which has significant reference value.
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来源期刊
Atmosphere
Atmosphere METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
13.80%
发文量
1769
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433) is an international and cross-disciplinary scholarly journal of scientific studies related to the atmosphere. It publishes reviews, regular research papers, communications and short notes, and there is no restriction on the length of the papers. Our aim is to encourage scientists to publish their experimental and theoretical research in as much detail as possible. Full experimental and/or methodical details must be provided for research articles.
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