In-Breast Tumor Progression During Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy: Impact on and Factors Influencing Distant Recurrence-Free Survival

Background

Most patients with breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) experience clinical benefit, however, a small proportion progress. We aimed to characterize factors predicting in-breast tumor progression and impact on distant recurrence.

Patients and Methods

We reviewed all patients with clinical stage I–III breast cancer treated with NAC in 2006–2021 at our institution. We compared in-breast progressive disease (PD), defined as ≥ 20% increase in tumor size, with stable disease (SD) or response. Distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) was analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method and Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results

Of 1403 patients, 70 (5%) experienced in-breast PD, 243 (17%) SD, 560 (40%) partial response (PR), and 530 (38%) breast pathologic complete response (breast pCR, ypT0/Tis). The rate of PD varied by tumor subtype (8% in HR+/HER2−, 5% TNBC, 2% HER2+, p < 0.001). With median 48 months follow-up, the rates of DRFS were significantly different according to clinical breast response as follows: PD 56%, SD 68%, PR 82%, or breast pCR 93%, p < 0.001. In patients with PD on multivariable analysis, post-NAC grade (adjusted HR 2.9, p = 0.002) and ypT3–4 category (adjusted HR 2.4, p = 0.03) were the strongest predictors of DRFS. Combining these factors, 23% had neither, 44% had one, and 33% had both, which stratified outcome in PD with 3-year DRFS of 100%, 77%, and 30%, respectively (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

While in-breast PD during NAC is uncommon (5%), it predicts poor survival. Among patients with in-breast PD, post-NAC tumor grade and T category predict outcomes and may be useful to guide treatment escalation.