Anton Pichler, Jan Hurt, Tobias Reisch, Johannes Stangl, Stefan Thurner
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Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 entailed the threat of a
drastic and sudden reduction of natural gas supply to the European Union. This
paper presents a techno-economic analysis of the consequences of a sudden gas
supply shock to Austria, one of the most dependent countries on imports of
Russian gas. Our analysis comprises (a) a detailed assessment of supply and
demand side countermeasures to mitigate the immediate shortfall in Russian gas
imports, (b) a mapping of the net reduction in gas supply to industrial sectors
to quantify direct economic shocks and expected relative reductions in gross
output and (c) the quantification of higher-order economic impacts through
using a dynamic out-of-equilibrium input-output model. Our results show that
potential economic consequences can range from relatively mild to highly
severe, depending on the implementation and success of counteracting mitigation
measures. We find that securing alternative gas imports, storage management,
and incentivizing fuel switching represent the most important short-term policy
levers to mitigate the adverse impacts of a sudden import stop.