{"title":"工业设施运行风险模型,包括老化/测试退化效应和维护效果","authors":"S.F. Quintão Ribeiro, J.J. Rivero","doi":"10.1016/j.net.2024.08.065","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents a model for operational risk of industrial facilities with applications to nuclear power plants and uranium mining. The traditional models update the risk profile for specific operational conditions setting to one the failure probability of components which are known to be unavailable by failure or maintenance, while constant mean unavailability values from the original Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) are kept for the rest. The proposed methodology considers the time dependency of standby failure probabilities through instantaneous unavailability models, depending on the specific standby time for each component at the given moment, instead of using the same constant values. It also incorporates ageing, testing degradation effects and maintenance effectiveness, not explicitly considered in traditional models, as well as the instantaneous reevaluation of common cause failure probabilities. The results show significant risk underestimations when components specific standby times, ageing, testing degradation effects and maintenance effectiveness are not considered.","PeriodicalId":19272,"journal":{"name":"Nuclear Engineering and Technology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A model for operational risk of industrial facilities including ageing/test degradation effects and maintenance effectiveness\",\"authors\":\"S.F. Quintão Ribeiro, J.J. Rivero\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.net.2024.08.065\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The paper presents a model for operational risk of industrial facilities with applications to nuclear power plants and uranium mining. The traditional models update the risk profile for specific operational conditions setting to one the failure probability of components which are known to be unavailable by failure or maintenance, while constant mean unavailability values from the original Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) are kept for the rest. The proposed methodology considers the time dependency of standby failure probabilities through instantaneous unavailability models, depending on the specific standby time for each component at the given moment, instead of using the same constant values. It also incorporates ageing, testing degradation effects and maintenance effectiveness, not explicitly considered in traditional models, as well as the instantaneous reevaluation of common cause failure probabilities. The results show significant risk underestimations when components specific standby times, ageing, testing degradation effects and maintenance effectiveness are not considered.\",\"PeriodicalId\":19272,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Nuclear Engineering and Technology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Nuclear Engineering and Technology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.net.2024.08.065\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nuclear Engineering and Technology","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.net.2024.08.065","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
A model for operational risk of industrial facilities including ageing/test degradation effects and maintenance effectiveness
The paper presents a model for operational risk of industrial facilities with applications to nuclear power plants and uranium mining. The traditional models update the risk profile for specific operational conditions setting to one the failure probability of components which are known to be unavailable by failure or maintenance, while constant mean unavailability values from the original Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) are kept for the rest. The proposed methodology considers the time dependency of standby failure probabilities through instantaneous unavailability models, depending on the specific standby time for each component at the given moment, instead of using the same constant values. It also incorporates ageing, testing degradation effects and maintenance effectiveness, not explicitly considered in traditional models, as well as the instantaneous reevaluation of common cause failure probabilities. The results show significant risk underestimations when components specific standby times, ageing, testing degradation effects and maintenance effectiveness are not considered.
期刊介绍:
Nuclear Engineering and Technology (NET), an international journal of the Korean Nuclear Society (KNS), publishes peer-reviewed papers on original research, ideas and developments in all areas of the field of nuclear science and technology. NET bimonthly publishes original articles, reviews, and technical notes. The journal is listed in the Science Citation Index Expanded (SCIE) of Thomson Reuters.
NET covers all fields for peaceful utilization of nuclear energy and radiation as follows:
1) Reactor Physics
2) Thermal Hydraulics
3) Nuclear Safety
4) Nuclear I&C
5) Nuclear Physics, Fusion, and Laser Technology
6) Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Radioactive Waste Management
7) Nuclear Fuel and Reactor Materials
8) Radiation Application
9) Radiation Protection
10) Nuclear Structural Analysis and Plant Management & Maintenance
11) Nuclear Policy, Economics, and Human Resource Development