1980 年至 2022 年南非财政和货币政策对经济增长影响的计量经济学分析

IF 2.1 Q2 ECONOMICS Economies Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI:10.3390/economies12090227
Luyanda Majenge, Sakhile Mpungose, Simiso Msomi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究通过对财政和货币政策的计量经济学分析,研究了 1980 年至 2022 年南非的经济增长率。研究试图调查经济增长率与各种财政和货币政策变量之间的关系,同时考虑到不同的经济学方法,如凯恩斯主义、货币主义和瓦格纳观点。所使用的方法包括数据准备、多重单位根检验、自回归分布滞后(ARDL)协整分析、诊断检测和成对格兰杰因果关系分析。实证分析发现,经济增长率、政府债务、支出和财政政策收入之间存在长期协整关系,但政府债务和支出在统计上并不显著。与经济理论相反,政府收入的增加与经济增长呈负相关。经济增长率与官方汇率、通货膨胀率、实际利率和 M3 货币供应量等货币政策变量之间没有长期关系。成对格兰杰因果检验显示,政府支出与经济增长之间存在单向关系,为凯恩斯主义财政政策方法提供了支持。这项研究还发现了经济增长格兰杰引起通货膨胀的证据,这意味着经济增长可能具有预测通货膨胀的能力,这与需求拉动通货膨胀假说是一致的。然而,在选定的货币政策变量与经济增长之间没有发现直接的预测关系,这支持了货币中性的长期理论。本研究建议评估支出、管理通胀、实施改革、缩小基础设施差距、鼓励投资并确保财政可持续性。
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Econometric Analysis of South Africa’s Fiscal and Monetary Policy Effects on Economic Growth from 1980 to 2022
This study examined South Africa’s economic growth rate from 1980 to 2022 through an econometric analysis of fiscal and monetary policies. The study sought to investigate the relationships between the economy’s growth rate and various fiscal and monetary policy variables, taking into account different economic approaches such as Keynesian, monetarist, and Wagner’s perspectives. The methodology used consisted of data preparation, multiple unit root tests, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration analysis, diagnostic tests, and pairwise Granger causality analysis. The empirical analysis found a long-term cointegration among the economic growth rate, government debt, expenditure, and revenue in fiscal policy, though government debt and expenditure were not statistically significant. Contrary to economic theory, increased government revenue had a negative correlation with economic growth. There was no long-term relationship found between the economic growth rate and monetary policy variables such as the official exchange rate, inflation rate, real interest rates, and M3 money supply. Pairwise Granger causality tests revealed a one-way relationship between government spending and economic growth, providing support to the Keynesian approach to fiscal policy. This study also discovered evidence that economic growth Granger-causes inflation, implying that economic growth may have predictive power for inflation, consistent with the demand-pull inflation hypothesis. However, no direct predictive relationships were found between the selected monetary policy variables and economic growth, supporting the long-run theory of monetary neutrality. This study suggests evaluating spending, managing inflation, implementing reforms, closing infrastructure gaps, encouraging investment, and ensuring fiscal sustainability.
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来源期刊
Economies
Economies Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
11.50%
发文量
271
审稿时长
11 weeks
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