年轻女性无立足之地?国内移民对东德农村地区成人性别比的影响。

Nico Stawarz,Matthias Rosenbaum-Feldbrügge,Uta Brehm,Nikola Sander
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摘要

许多高度城市化的国家都存在农村地区妇女短缺的问题。东德农村地区是研究这一现象的理想案例,因为它的成人性别比率(ASR)很低--男性人数大大超过女性--再加上青壮年人口大量向外迁移。本研究揭示了城乡之间的内部移民是如何导致青壮年女性短缺的。我们利用县际移民流数据(2002-21 年)来分解移民流对 ASR 的影响。我们发现,东德农村地区的低 ASRs 是由性别选择性移民造成的。在 2000 年代初,性别选择性外流的主要目的地是西德,而在 2010 年代,东德的城市地区则是主要目的地。我们发现,18-24 岁人口的迁移加剧了农村人口中女性的短缺,而 25-29 岁人口的迁移则有助于实现更均衡的 ASR。
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No place for young women? The impact of internal migration on adult sex ratios in rural East Germany.
Shortages of women in rural areas occur in many highly urbanized countries. Rural East Germany is an ideal case for studying this phenomenon because of its low adult sex ratio (ASR)-men greatly outnumber women-coupled with high outmigration among young adults. This study identifies how internal migration between rural and urban areas contributes to the shortage of young adult women. We use data on inter-county migration flows (for years 2002-21) to decompose the impacts of migration flows on ASRs. We find that the low ASRs in rural East Germany have been driven by sex-selective migration. In the early 2000s the main destination of sex-selective outflows was West Germany, while in the 2010s urban areas in East Germany were the key destinations. We find that moves among 18-24-year-olds increased the shortage of women in the rural population, whereas moves among 25-29-year-olds contributed to more balanced ASRs.
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