Pub Date : 2024-09-17DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2371283
Pavel Grigoriev,Nataliia Levchuk,Pavlo Shevchuk,Svitlana Poniakina,Sebastian Klüsener
Turbulent socio-economic development, recent political challenges, and remarkable regional diversity with deep historical roots make Ukraine an important case study for understanding mortality trends in Eastern Europe. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive, spatially detailed analysis of cause-specific mortality trends and patterns in Ukraine, focusing on the period 2006-19. We rely on official mortality data and use various demographic and spatial analysis techniques. Our results suggest a notable attenuation of the long-standing West-East and West-South-East mortality gradients. Cardiovascular mortality at older ages largely explains the gap between the vanguard (lowest mortality) and laggard (highest mortality) areas, especially for females and in the most recent period. By contrast, the impact of mortality from external causes has greatly diminished over time. Hotspot analyses reveal strong and persistent clustering of mortality from suicide, HIV, and lung cancer. Further research should focus on in-depth assessment of the mechanisms causing the observed patterns.
{"title":"Spatial disparities in cause-specific mortality in Ukraine: A district-level analysis, 2006-19.","authors":"Pavel Grigoriev,Nataliia Levchuk,Pavlo Shevchuk,Svitlana Poniakina,Sebastian Klüsener","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2371283","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2024.2371283","url":null,"abstract":"Turbulent socio-economic development, recent political challenges, and remarkable regional diversity with deep historical roots make Ukraine an important case study for understanding mortality trends in Eastern Europe. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive, spatially detailed analysis of cause-specific mortality trends and patterns in Ukraine, focusing on the period 2006-19. We rely on official mortality data and use various demographic and spatial analysis techniques. Our results suggest a notable attenuation of the long-standing West-East and West-South-East mortality gradients. Cardiovascular mortality at older ages largely explains the gap between the vanguard (lowest mortality) and laggard (highest mortality) areas, especially for females and in the most recent period. By contrast, the impact of mortality from external causes has greatly diminished over time. Hotspot analyses reveal strong and persistent clustering of mortality from suicide, HIV, and lung cancer. Further research should focus on in-depth assessment of the mechanisms causing the observed patterns.","PeriodicalId":501679,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies","volume":"25 1","pages":"1-22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142251139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-11DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2388555
Nazareno Panichella,Roberto Impicciatore
This paper aims to analyse the social selectivity of internal movers in six European countries, by examining the influence of education and social origin on the likelihood of moving. The study, using ShareLife data, reveals country-specific variations in social selectivity. France and Poland show a skilled selection of internal movers, where education is the primary factor affecting the likelihood of moving, with no additional effect of social origin. In Germany and Sweden, internal movers are selected based on their social origin as well as education, but this double selection differs between the two countries, with a boosting scenario in Germany and a systematic effect of social origin in Sweden, regardless of educational level. Finally, in Spain and Italy, the social selectivity of movers is less evident. Overall, the study highlights the importance of considering the interplay of education and social origin in understanding the social selectivity of internal movers.
{"title":"The selectivity of internal movers: An analysis of the relationship between education, social origin, and geographical mobility in Europe.","authors":"Nazareno Panichella,Roberto Impicciatore","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2388555","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2024.2388555","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to analyse the social selectivity of internal movers in six European countries, by examining the influence of education and social origin on the likelihood of moving. The study, using ShareLife data, reveals country-specific variations in social selectivity. France and Poland show a skilled selection of internal movers, where education is the primary factor affecting the likelihood of moving, with no additional effect of social origin. In Germany and Sweden, internal movers are selected based on their social origin as well as education, but this double selection differs between the two countries, with a boosting scenario in Germany and a systematic effect of social origin in Sweden, regardless of educational level. Finally, in Spain and Italy, the social selectivity of movers is less evident. Overall, the study highlights the importance of considering the interplay of education and social origin in understanding the social selectivity of internal movers.","PeriodicalId":501679,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies","volume":"114 1","pages":"1-19"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142226726","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-11DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2376060
Okka Zimmermann,Dirk Konietzka,Marco Deppe
Building on research on cohort-specific trends in life-course differentiation and destandardization, our study seeks to explore how patterns of family-life-course diversity relate to characteristics of sociopolitical regimes. Applying sequence analysis, we analyse cohort-specific family life courses from nine European countries and Canada, classifying them into five sociopolitical regimes (Nordic, Anglo-Saxon, Mediterranean, Continental, Eastern). We use data from the Harmonized Histories and the German National Educational Panel Survey. Our results indicate that sociopolitical regimes differentiate patterns of life-course diversity quite well in the Nordic, Anglo-Saxon, and Eastern European countries but to a lesser degree in the Mediterranean and Continental countries. In methodological terms, our results suggest that distinguishing patterns of diversity between and within life courses helps to create a more nuanced empirical account of changing life-course patterns, particularly in a cross-national perspective.
{"title":"Differentiation and destandardization of family life courses: Theoretical and empirical links to sociopolitical regime types.","authors":"Okka Zimmermann,Dirk Konietzka,Marco Deppe","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2376060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2024.2376060","url":null,"abstract":"Building on research on cohort-specific trends in life-course differentiation and destandardization, our study seeks to explore how patterns of family-life-course diversity relate to characteristics of sociopolitical regimes. Applying sequence analysis, we analyse cohort-specific family life courses from nine European countries and Canada, classifying them into five sociopolitical regimes (Nordic, Anglo-Saxon, Mediterranean, Continental, Eastern). We use data from the Harmonized Histories and the German National Educational Panel Survey. Our results indicate that sociopolitical regimes differentiate patterns of life-course diversity quite well in the Nordic, Anglo-Saxon, and Eastern European countries but to a lesser degree in the Mediterranean and Continental countries. In methodological terms, our results suggest that distinguishing patterns of diversity between and within life courses helps to create a more nuanced empirical account of changing life-course patterns, particularly in a cross-national perspective.","PeriodicalId":501679,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies","volume":"11 1","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142210793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shortages of women in rural areas occur in many highly urbanized countries. Rural East Germany is an ideal case for studying this phenomenon because of its low adult sex ratio (ASR)-men greatly outnumber women-coupled with high outmigration among young adults. This study identifies how internal migration between rural and urban areas contributes to the shortage of young adult women. We use data on inter-county migration flows (for years 2002-21) to decompose the impacts of migration flows on ASRs. We find that the low ASRs in rural East Germany have been driven by sex-selective migration. In the early 2000s the main destination of sex-selective outflows was West Germany, while in the 2010s urban areas in East Germany were the key destinations. We find that moves among 18-24-year-olds increased the shortage of women in the rural population, whereas moves among 25-29-year-olds contributed to more balanced ASRs.
{"title":"No place for young women? The impact of internal migration on adult sex ratios in rural East Germany.","authors":"Nico Stawarz,Matthias Rosenbaum-Feldbrügge,Uta Brehm,Nikola Sander","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2382154","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2024.2382154","url":null,"abstract":"Shortages of women in rural areas occur in many highly urbanized countries. Rural East Germany is an ideal case for studying this phenomenon because of its low adult sex ratio (ASR)-men greatly outnumber women-coupled with high outmigration among young adults. This study identifies how internal migration between rural and urban areas contributes to the shortage of young adult women. We use data on inter-county migration flows (for years 2002-21) to decompose the impacts of migration flows on ASRs. We find that the low ASRs in rural East Germany have been driven by sex-selective migration. In the early 2000s the main destination of sex-selective outflows was West Germany, while in the 2010s urban areas in East Germany were the key destinations. We find that moves among 18-24-year-olds increased the shortage of women in the rural population, whereas moves among 25-29-year-olds contributed to more balanced ASRs.","PeriodicalId":501679,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies","volume":"21 1","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142210742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-16DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2331447
Anastasia Lam, Katherine Keenan, Mikko Myrskylä, H. Kulu
Multimorbidity is increasing globally as populations age. However, it is unclear how long individuals live with multimorbidity and how it varies by social and economic factors. We investigate this in South Africa, whose apartheid history further complicates race, socio-economic, and sex inequalities. We introduce the term 'multimorbid life expectancy' (MMLE) to describe the years lived with multimorbidity. Using data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (2008-17) and incidence-based multistate Markov modelling, we find that females experience higher MMLE than males (17.3 vs 9.8 years), and this disparity is consistent across all race and education groups. MMLE is highest among Asian/Indian people and the post-secondary educated relative to other groups and lowest among African people. These findings suggest there are associations between structural inequalities and MMLE, highlighting the need for health-system and educational policies to be implemented in a way proportional to each group's level of need.
{"title":"Multimorbid life expectancy across race, socio-economic status, and sex in South Africa.","authors":"Anastasia Lam, Katherine Keenan, Mikko Myrskylä, H. Kulu","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2331447","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2024.2331447","url":null,"abstract":"Multimorbidity is increasing globally as populations age. However, it is unclear how long individuals live with multimorbidity and how it varies by social and economic factors. We investigate this in South Africa, whose apartheid history further complicates race, socio-economic, and sex inequalities. We introduce the term 'multimorbid life expectancy' (MMLE) to describe the years lived with multimorbidity. Using data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (2008-17) and incidence-based multistate Markov modelling, we find that females experience higher MMLE than males (17.3 vs 9.8 years), and this disparity is consistent across all race and education groups. MMLE is highest among Asian/Indian people and the post-secondary educated relative to other groups and lowest among African people. These findings suggest there are associations between structural inequalities and MMLE, highlighting the need for health-system and educational policies to be implemented in a way proportional to each group's level of need.","PeriodicalId":501679,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies","volume":"53 23","pages":"1-26"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140969212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-26DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2332629
P. Grigoriev, Florian Bonnet, Elsa Perdrix
Analysis of causes of death is crucial for monitoring an epidemiological situation and for developing adequate policy responses. However, the comparability of cause-specific mortality data depends on the proportion of ill-defined deaths. To eliminate the bias resulting from the varying proportions of such causes over time and between populations, deaths from ill-defined causes need to be reassigned to other categories. We provide thorough documentation of and tools for the practical implementation of a regression-based method for redistributing ill-defined causes of death, as first proposed by Sully Ledermann in the 1950s. The method relies on subnational cause-specific mortality data to estimate unbiased death rates at both national and subnational levels. We refine Ledermann's method by elaborating on its mathematical properties, making additional adjustments, and evaluating the performance of the approach through simulations. To illustrate the practical application of the method, we rely on French subnational cause-of-death data and provide the R code for performing all calculations.
死因分析对于监测流行病情况和制定适当的应对政策至关重要。然而，特定死因死亡率数据的可比性取决于死因不明死亡的比例。为了消除此类死因在不同时期和不同人群中所占比例不同而造成的偏差，需要将死因不明的死亡重新归入其他类别。苏利-莱德曼（Sully Ledermann）在 20 世纪 50 年代首次提出了一种基于回归的方法，用于重新分配定义不清的死因，我们为这种方法的实际应用提供了详尽的文件和工具。该方法依靠国家以下各级的特定死因死亡率数据来估算国家和国家以下各级的无偏见死亡率。我们对莱德曼的方法进行了改进，详细阐述了其数学特性，进行了额外的调整，并通过模拟评估了该方法的性能。为了说明该方法的实际应用，我们使用了法国的国家以下各级死因数据，并提供了执行所有计算的 R 代码。
{"title":"Method for redistributing ill-defined causes of death.","authors":"P. Grigoriev, Florian Bonnet, Elsa Perdrix","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2332629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2024.2332629","url":null,"abstract":"Analysis of causes of death is crucial for monitoring an epidemiological situation and for developing adequate policy responses. However, the comparability of cause-specific mortality data depends on the proportion of ill-defined deaths. To eliminate the bias resulting from the varying proportions of such causes over time and between populations, deaths from ill-defined causes need to be reassigned to other categories. We provide thorough documentation of and tools for the practical implementation of a regression-based method for redistributing ill-defined causes of death, as first proposed by Sully Ledermann in the 1950s. The method relies on subnational cause-specific mortality data to estimate unbiased death rates at both national and subnational levels. We refine Ledermann's method by elaborating on its mathematical properties, making additional adjustments, and evaluating the performance of the approach through simulations. To illustrate the practical application of the method, we rely on French subnational cause-of-death data and provide the R code for performing all calculations.","PeriodicalId":501679,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies","volume":"3 10","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140652344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-23DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2331472
H. Remes, E. Einiö, K. Korhonen, J. Luukkonen, Pekka Martikainen
Fathers tend to achieve higher earnings than childless men, but there is limited evidence on the associations between fatherhood timing and men's later earnings. Using a longitudinal census-based sample of Finnish men, including a subsample of brothers, we investigated fatherhood timing and men's midlife earnings using both between- and within-family models. Earnings around age 50 were lower among adolescent and young fathers than for men who became fathers at ages 25-29 or later, but these associations became negligible after accounting for measured confounders and unobserved familial confounding. Overall, our findings highlight the important roles of selection into early childbearing and into childlessness. At the population level, early fatherhood was associated with clear negative distributional shifts in fathers' midlife earnings. However, among all men, any influence of fatherhood timing on men's midlife earnings distribution paled in comparison with that of childlessness.
{"title":"Fatherhood timing and men's midlife earnings: A within-family study of Finnish cohorts born in 1938-50.","authors":"H. Remes, E. Einiö, K. Korhonen, J. Luukkonen, Pekka Martikainen","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2331472","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2024.2331472","url":null,"abstract":"Fathers tend to achieve higher earnings than childless men, but there is limited evidence on the associations between fatherhood timing and men's later earnings. Using a longitudinal census-based sample of Finnish men, including a subsample of brothers, we investigated fatherhood timing and men's midlife earnings using both between- and within-family models. Earnings around age 50 were lower among adolescent and young fathers than for men who became fathers at ages 25-29 or later, but these associations became negligible after accounting for measured confounders and unobserved familial confounding. Overall, our findings highlight the important roles of selection into early childbearing and into childlessness. At the population level, early fatherhood was associated with clear negative distributional shifts in fathers' midlife earnings. However, among all men, any influence of fatherhood timing on men's midlife earnings distribution paled in comparison with that of childlessness.","PeriodicalId":501679,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies","volume":"28 11","pages":"1-17"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140671437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-11DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2024.2310835
Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher, Paola Vázquez-Castillo, Trifon I. Missov
Recent studies have shown that there are some advantages to forecasting mortality with indicators other than age-specific death rates. The mean, median, and modal ages at death can be directly esti...
{"title":"A modal age at death approach to forecasting adult mortality","authors":"Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher, Paola Vázquez-Castillo, Trifon I. Missov","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2024.2310835","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2024.2310835","url":null,"abstract":"Recent studies have shown that there are some advantages to forecasting mortality with indicators other than age-specific death rates. The mean, median, and modal ages at death can be directly esti...","PeriodicalId":501679,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140583377","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-13DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2279538
Enrico Debiasi, Martin Dribe, Gabriel Brea Martinez
Socio-economic differences in mortality are among the most pervasive characteristics of Western societies. While the mortality gradient by income is well established for the period after 1970, know...
{"title":"Has it always paid to be rich? Income and cause-specific mortality in southern Sweden 1905–2014","authors":"Enrico Debiasi, Martin Dribe, Gabriel Brea Martinez","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2023.2279538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2023.2279538","url":null,"abstract":"Socio-economic differences in mortality are among the most pervasive characteristics of Western societies. While the mortality gradient by income is well established for the period after 1970, know...","PeriodicalId":501679,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies","volume":"85 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138686446","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-13DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2023.2272983
Adela Recio Alcaide, César Pérez López, Miguel Ángel Ortega, Luisa N. Borrell, Francisco Bolúmar
The number of births varies by season. Research on birth seasonality has shown that women’s season of birth somehow influences that of their children, but factors underlying the intergenerational t...
{"title":"Is there an association between family members’ season of birth that could influence birth seasonality? Evidence from Spain and France","authors":"Adela Recio Alcaide, César Pérez López, Miguel Ángel Ortega, Luisa N. Borrell, Francisco Bolúmar","doi":"10.1080/00324728.2023.2272983","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2023.2272983","url":null,"abstract":"The number of births varies by season. Research on birth seasonality has shown that women’s season of birth somehow influences that of their children, but factors underlying the intergenerational t...","PeriodicalId":501679,"journal":{"name":"Population Studies","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138686227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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