巴黎协定》下北京(中国)的夏季升温情况

IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Theoretical and Applied Climatology Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI:10.1007/s00704-024-05164-6
Fengqi Cui, Rafiq Hamdi, Tao Yang, Piet Termonia, Philippe De Maeyer
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引用次数: 0

摘要

全球变暖带来的热环境变化给城市居民带来了新的担忧。然而,全球和区域气候模式缺乏对城市的介绍,限制了这些模式在城市尺度上提供有用信息的能力。本研究探讨了 1.5 °C 和 2 °C 全球变暖水平(GWL1.5 和 GWL2)对中国北京未来夏季的影响。利用现有的协调区域气候降尺度试验(CORDEX)集合数据,采用一种新的统计动力降尺度(SDD)方法,对不同全球升温潜势下北京的气候预测进行了降尺度。结果表明,在 GWL1.5 和 GWL2 条件下,北京中心城区的最高气温升幅分别达到 3.5 ℃ 和 4 ℃。在 GWL1.5 条件下,历史城市热岛(UHI)强度首先上升到 2.48 ± 0.97/1.02 ± 0.58 °C,然后在 22:00/09:00 时下降到 GWL2 条件下的 2.24 ± 0.98/0.90 ± 0.69 °C。在 GWL1.5 下,东部都市区的 UHI 效应(> 2 °C)大于西部地区(0.5-1.5 °C)。昼间和夜间最高的 UHI 主要出现在 LCZ154(开放式高层建筑区)。未来热浪(HWs)的强度、持续时间和频率都在增加,尤其是在 GWL2 下的城市地区。有关《巴黎协定》下的 UHIs 和 HWs 的气候信息将对利益相关者和城市规划者制定近期的地方适应政策大有帮助。
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The summer warming of Beijing (China) under the Paris Agreement

The shifting thermal environment brought by global warming presents new concerns for urban residents. However, the lack of urban presentation in the global and regional climate models limits the ability of these models to provide useful information at the urban scale. This study examines the impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels (GWL1.5 and GWL2) on the future summer of Beijing, China. A new statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) method was applied using available Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) ensemble data to downscale climate projections across Beijing at different GWLs. The results showed that the maximum air temperature increase reached 3.5 °C and 4 °C at GWL1.5 and GWL2, respectively, in the central urban area of Beijing. The historical urban heat island (UHI) intensity first increased to 2.48 ± 0.97/1.02 ± 0.58 °C in GWL1.5 and then decreased to 2.24 ± 0.98/0.90 ± 0.69 °C in GWL2 at 22:00/09:00. Under GWL1.5, the UHI effect is greater in the eastern metropolitan areas (> 2 °C) than in the western regions (0.5–1.5 °C). The highest daytime and nighttime UHIs occurred mostly in LCZ154 (open high-rise area). The intensity, duration, and frequency of future heat waves (HWs) are increasing, especially in urban areas under GWL2. Climate information on UHIs and HWs under the Paris Agreement would be very helpful for stakeholders and city planners to develop near-term future local adaptation policies.

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来源期刊
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Theoretical and Applied Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
11.80%
发文量
376
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics: - climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere - effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents - hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing
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