猴痘病毒传播模型:稳定性分析和分析技术比较

IF 1.8 4区 物理与天体物理 Q2 PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Open Physics Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI:10.1515/phys-2024-0056
Elkhateeb Sobhy Aly, Manoj Singh, Mohammed Ali Aiyashi, Mohammed Daher Albalwi
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引用次数: 0

摘要

猴痘是一种传染性极强的疾病,非常容易传播,因此可能会导致疫情爆发,带来一些健康问题或风险。本文提出了一种新的数学模型,利用卡普托-法布里齐奥导数模拟猴痘病毒感染分阶微分方程的传播率。利用 Krasnoselskii 定点定理和 Banach 定点定理讨论了模型定点的存在性、唯一性和收缩映射下的稳定性。为了验证所提出的模型,我们采用了记录实际动态的数据,根据这些数据,该模型可以捕捉到在加纳观察到的传播模式。此外,我们还采用了分析算法,应用拉普拉斯-阿多米安分解法(LADM)找出结果。LADM 的性能分析是针对 Runge-Kutta 四阶法进行的,这是解决二阶常微分方程最常用的方法。因此,这种比较提供了有关这两种技术在猴痘病毒传播模式建模方面的真实性和可靠性的信息。通过这项研究获得的信息可以让人们更好地了解与猴痘病毒传播有关的抗体,并为医生和政治家提供有效的策略。这篇文章有助于制定更好的策略来应对猴痘病毒对公共卫生的影响,因为它使预测和预防猴痘病毒的发生变得容易。
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Modeling monkeypox virus transmission: Stability analysis and comparison of analytical techniques
Monkeypox is a highly infectious disease and spreads very easily, hence posing several health concerns or risks as it may lead to outbreak. This article proposes a new mathematical model to simulate the transmission rate of the monkeypox virus-infected fractional-order differential equations using the Caputo–Fabrizio derivative. The existence, uniqueness, and stability under contraction mapping of the fixed point of the model are discussed using Krasnoselskii’s and Banach’s fixed point theorems. To verify the model proposed, we employ data that record the actual dynamics, and based on these data, the model can capture the observed transmission patterns in Ghana. Also, the analytic algorithm is used to find the result applying the Laplace Adomian decomposition method (LADM). Performance analysis of LADM is made regarding Runge-Kutta fourth order, which is the most commonly employed method for solving second-order ordinary differential equations. This comparison therefore offers information on the truth and reliability of the two techniques toward modeling the transmission pattern of the monkey pox virus. The information obtained through this study provides a better understanding of the antibodies linked to monkeypox virus spreading and provides effective strategies to doctors and politicians. This article helps shape better strategies about combating the impact of monkeypox virus in public health since it makes it easy to predict and prevent the occurrence of the disease.
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来源期刊
Open Physics
Open Physics PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
5.30%
发文量
82
审稿时长
18 weeks
期刊介绍: Open Physics is a peer-reviewed, open access, electronic journal devoted to the publication of fundamental research results in all fields of physics. The journal provides the readers with free, instant, and permanent access to all content worldwide; and the authors with extensive promotion of published articles, long-time preservation, language-correction services, no space constraints and immediate publication. Our standard policy requires each paper to be reviewed by at least two Referees and the peer-review process is single-blind.
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