山地城市地下空间洪水影响因素识别与风险评估

IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY International journal of disaster risk reduction Pub Date : 2024-09-04 DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104807
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于城市化进程,人们越来越依赖和利用地下空间。此外,这些区域容易受到城市内涝的影响,排水困难,可能导致重大风险。目前,水动力模型中很少有考虑地下空间的模拟。地下空间的淹没风险仍然是一个不确定的现象。本研究将地下空间概念化为存储区域,旨在模拟不同重现期的洪水风险空间分布。我们研究了三种地下空间类型的洪水过程和特征。结果表明,结合地下空间的简化建模方法模拟的洪水演变过程更符合实际情况。为了进一步分析城市内涝的风险分布,我们选择了 XGBoost 模型和 SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)方法来评估特定指标对山区城市内涝发生的影响。我们的分析表明,关键因素包括道路密度(DR)、流速(V)、管道密度(DP)、海拔高度(DEM)和淹没高度(H),其贡献率分别为 23.13 %、17.06 %、14.67 %、10.12 % 和 9.04 %。该分析明确了研究区域内的地下淹没风险,可作为制定防洪和排水策略的参考依据。
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Identification of influencing factors and risk assessment of underground space flooding in the mountain city

As a consequence of the process of urbanization, there is an increasing reliance on and exploitation of underground spaces. Moreover, these areas are susceptible to urban waterlogging, which can be difficult to drain, potentially leading to significant risks. At present, there are few simulations in hydrodynamic models that consider underground spaces. The risk of inundation of underground spaces remains an uncertain phenomenon. This study conceptualized underground spaces as storage areas, with the aim of simulating the spatial distribution of flood risk for different return periods. We studied the flooding processes and characteristics of three underground space types. The results indicate that the flood evolution simulated by the simplified modeling method that incorporates underground space is more aligned with the actual situation. To further analyze the risk distribution of urban waterlogging, we choose the XGBoost model and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method to assess the influence of specific indicators on the occurrence of urban waterlogging in mountainous regions. Our analysis revealed that key factors include density of road (DR), flow velocity (V), density of pipes (DP), elevation (DEM), and inundation height (H), with contribution rates of 23.13 %, 17.06 %, 14.67 %, 10.12 %, and 9.04 %, respectively. This analysis clarified the risk of underground inundation within the study area, which can serve as a reference point for the formulation of flood control and drainage strategies.

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来源期刊
International journal of disaster risk reduction
International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
18.00%
发文量
688
审稿时长
79 days
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.
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